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Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

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Brazil exports subside to China as local markets continue to fire 

Key Points

  • Supply can be expected to remain relatively tight as another rain event is forecast to deliver solid widespread falls across the broader east over the weekend into early next week.
  • From StoneX Brazil – a lot of Brazilian exporters have effectively ceased shipments to China, knowing their own safeguard quota limit is due to be hit very shortly.
  • Early signals are emerging around price pressure felt at the meat end of the market being reflected in domestic cow prices – with Brazilian competition and market access (China / South Korea) contributing here.

Supply

  • Numbers remain constrained – a rising market is also encouraging producers to sit back which is adding to the weather driven shortness in supply.
  • The lack of available Angus feeders is well and truly being felt now as winter fully sets in and these continued rain events further shorten numbers. It was not unexpected and feedlots have been aware of the impending shortage, but it has now well and truly bitten.
  • Spring into summer of 2026 should see large numbers of light cattle return to northern NSW as grass production fires – I also think we’ll see a mini rebuild type dynamic begin to playout with producers either buying in breeder stock or retaining agisted yearling heifers and joining in the Spring.
    • Though as we know, the liquidation which has already occurred will take time to recover from specifically for this area. The longer-term implications of that liquidation on Angus & British feeder steer supply is yet to be truly felt, even seasonally in periods of higher numbers – ie Spring/Summer.  
  • Talking with my Brazilian colleagues this week, the mail is that a lot of Brazilian exporters have effectively accepted the China market is now closed, with very few sending containers into that market.
    • Rates the Brazilians are receiving are well back on where China was paying and in some instances is below break even in export markets.

Demand

  • Demand across the board remains robust from all sectors of the buying fraternity – as I’ve mentioned before, with the system expanded, when numbers get short there’s just times where there’s not enough to meet the needs to fill capacity in the system.
  • The mild winter has encouraged I would say greater than usual demand from restockers this far into the middle of the year à the rains in areas that desperately needed it has more than helped as well.
  • As some feedlots step away from Angus due to the economics, additional demand is being felt for crossbred feeders.

Price

  • One that hasn’t been raised for a while but it deserves a mention – Angus to Crossbred feeder spreads have narrowed 20c through early parts of winter – a highly unusual dynamic.
    • The reasoning, is that the flatback market to me, was oversold and now has been underbought – which has rapidly moved spreads with Angus feeders in both directions.
    • The Angus rate really has remained far more stable up until very recently compared with the crossbred price which has experienced extreme levels of volatility over the past 2 months.
    • Looking ahead – that spread is unlikely to hit the A$1-$1.20/kg lwt levels I previously believed it would, and I think with some feedlots stepping back from Angus into crossbred cattle due to the economics has added some additional demand for crossbreds, supporting rates through winter.
  • Spreads and market conditions have changed the trading dynamics for a backgrounding trade in the past 6 -8 weeks. For sometime, backgrounders had enjoyed replacement costs (restocker steer) at or below spot sale values for feeder cattle. A rarity in markets.
    • With rains across the broader east, demand for restockers has intensified, seeing that discount for restocker cattle disappear – as mentioned last week, this dynamic has made a few producers nervous about buying in again due to a little capability to secure a sell price forwards for those cattle.
  • I believe that you’re starting to see some early signs of international price pressure being reflected in cow values this week – granted, big licks of northern cows are now flowing strongly which will be playing a role, but I think this easing in cow prices is a signal from the meat end of the market that they’re feeling price pressure at that manufacturing level.
  • The StoneX Feeder Cattle forward contract trades Oct/Nov/Dec 2026 at $5.00

Weather

  • Further rains on the forecast over the weekend for large areas of the broader east – expect supply to remain short as a result of this.
  • Cold weather follows once this system dissipates – expect frosts next week to kick off.

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