Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

Fri, 17 Oct 2025, 00:15

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US Feeder Profitability crashes as Aussie market continues its easing cycle.

Key Points

US Feeder cattle prices have rallied over A$1/kg liveweight in less than 3 weeks – rendering feedlot profitability conditions the worst in 10-years for feeders as the fed price hasn’t matched the feeder rally, this is despite cheap corn and positive cost of gain.
Cattle prices so far in October serve as a good reminder that the weather & seasonal conditions remain the underlying fundamental driver of market performance.
With spring selling season in full flight, strong supply of cattle out of northern NSW & S QLD should be expected through to the end of the year – the numbers are there.

US Feedlot Profitability

US Feeder prices have risen A$1/kg lwt in less than 3 weeks, which has collapsed feedlot profitability to their worst feeding conditions in the past 10-years – so despite favourable cost of gain due to cheap corn, the fed price hasn’t matched the rally in feeders – collapsing profitability.
- US Feeders on spot values are priced at A$12.97/kg lwt currently

image-20251017105841-1

Supply

Feedlots positioning themselves for Q1 2026 and are putting together large numbers of backgrounders to grow out to feeder entry weight for early next year – something to think about.
Some timely albeit very patchy storm rains through the Maranoa and the Downs over the past week shortened a few numbers up in the yards – the paddock cattle are flowing strongly though, particularly Oats feeders.
We should begin to see larger numbers of cows marketed in the next couple of weeks as Spring calving musters start to push out some extra culls.
Spring selling season for NSW / S QLD now well and truly in full swing – volumes should remain strong I believe well into the end of this year – big volumes of cattle available, particularly feeders – the numbers are there.
- The question becomes when does the South run out of supply and the southern feedlots exert their presence in northern markets once more? I would suspect southern supply won’t last very long at all.

Demand

There’s always two sides to every story – the drier weather softening prices but with that has brought good buying opportunities for the backgrounders.
- I know some producers are positioning themselves by buying backgrounders now on the dip in the market before forecast November rain pushes prices higher once more.
Last week I mentioned how the mood had shifted – this week I’d call it nervousness – its nothing a good widespread storm of genuine rain can’t fix.
- But the conversations I’m having, from VIC to QLD indicate some worry from producers, with weather turning sharply drier, faster than expected.
Some feedlots getting some of the longest forward positions they’ve had in a while on physical – driven by supply – which is acting as a reductor in demand for cattle and in turn placing downward pressure on price.

Price

Markets continue their easing cycle – Angus feeders now really feeling the pressure of heavier supply availability – the spread with the crossbred is narrowing at a rapid rate – this is also an example of basis.
- This price relationship is extremely seasonal – evidence in the chart below

image-20251017105841-2

Confidence is getting tested at the restocker end and prices are reacting accordingly – this is the first real test of the market since March this year – particularly on the restocker level for northern NSW / QLD & already its coming under pressure.
- A good reminder – weather & the season is king.

Weather

TAS getting some really solid falls over the past month or so, particularly the western half of the Apple Isle.
The north getting its first taste of the wet season over the past week – right across the top end – from the Kimberley’s down into northern CQ.
Models have overshot the mark on rain outcomes recently – so difficult to know what to make of next week’s forecast for the south… there is broader model agreement for the following week leading into November which is the more promising system.

Meats & Livestock

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