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Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

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October beef exports soar, as cow prices reach record highs, spurred on by intense southern demand in northern markets amidst lower supply. 

Key Points

  • Grainfed beef exports are now a lead indicator for grainfed turnoff – with October 2025 grainfed export volumes rising 27% year on year.
  • Southern producers are now active and operating in northern markets chasing light cattle.
  • Saleyard cows have hit new highs this week – driven by strong demand and added competition from southern markets as space bookings are pulled by producers forcing additional competition to secure supply.

Supply

  • As oats cut out – weight in cattle presented will be important and the demand from the buyers for cattle with weight will remain strong – particularly as it can become hard to come by over summer with the heat.
  • Unsurprisingly, space bookings for feedlots and kill slots for cattle, as mentioned last week, have disappeared and grid prices have had to lift to secure stock – be wary though, cattle that have been delayed will need to come forwards and I think we’ll see a flurry of numbers move before the year closes out in response to producers clearing the decks before holidays.
  • October beef exports hit 139,277 mt, whilst grainfed exports reached their second highest monthly volume on record at 41,045 mt, seasonally that figure was higher than Oct-24 grainfed exports by 27% or 8,665 mt.
    • When the Q4 2025 Lot Feeding Brief is released in February 2026 – expect to see grainfed turnoff be very very strong – the export numbers are now well and truly a lead indicator to grainfed slaughter.

Demand

  • Producer’s interest has lifted substantially across the eastern seaboard on the back of these rains, with all restocker prices across states the best performers – interesting to see how the rain can drive demand despite the producer themselves not necessarily receiving big falls on farm – they see rain around them and that fear of missing out (FOMO) kicks into gear.
  • Southern processors are really pushing this cow market now that supply in their markets is shortening very quickly on the back of the rains.
  • In reverse of what we’ve seen for most of this year, southern producers are now well and truly either looking or operating in northern markets for restocker cattle and should continue to do so if seasonal conditions back home are continuing to improve and support a restock
    • We should see a reasonable number of cattle traded next year in southern areas as a starting point for cash flow purposes to repair the balance sheet so producers can get back on their feed post drought.

Price

  • Saleyard cow prices to new record highs this week – the influence of rain in the south, forcing the southerners well and truly back into northern markets chasing slaughter cattle has provided strong support for this rally.
    • Expect to see further volatility in the cow price moving forwards, the potential reduction in Brazillian tariffs into the US will unsettle meat markets and as such local cow prices should reflect that with downside price pressure when that announcement (if it comes) begins to flow back into the local processor prices.
  • These market prices over the past 2 months really do demonstrate how much of an influence the weather has on pricing outcomes – the rains over the past fortnight have driven this rally, influencing confidence and demand at the producer level which in turn has influenced supply.
  • Dry weather is now forecast until W3 November where another major system is expected to hit the country – these rains should see December cattle prices be well supported into Christmas if it delivers.

Weather

  • Two key things have stood out to me when talking with the market, first is the patchiness of the rains and the second is the need for the follow up falls and the importance of those for the season.
  • Temperature anomalies indicate warmer than average temps for the next 10 days – impacting ability of the country to respond with warmer weather.
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