Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

Sat, 07 Feb 2026, 00:24

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Market uneasiness as Brazilian supply chain development comes into focus

Key Points

The profits generated from Brazil’s last few years of lucrative beef exports should put us on notice about the investment this will drive into their supply chains moving forwards.
The market feels very uneasy at present – much like Feb/Mar 2025 before the rain – its unsettled.
As temperatures ease across the broader east this week – market prices have steadied and demand has slightly improved.

Brazil – US Exports & Revenue Generation.

It stands to reason but I believe its worth mentioning, consider the profitability of the Brazilian beef industry at present with the strength of the US market coinciding with a period of strong beef production over the past 3-4 years for Brazil
This situation will generate strong revenue growth for beef producers, feedlotters, processors & exporters in Brazil, particularly at the meat end of the supply chain – and with that revenue generation, comes additional funds to invest in infrastructure, food safety standards, people, efficiency processes and more
That investment will further drive the Brazilian beef industry forwards at a much faster rate of growth than it has previously.
This is something we as Australian’s must increasingly be aware of – conversations I’ve had with the meat export end of the market who have travelled Brazil, told me how sophisticated their operations are.
They’re a force to be reckoned with and we can’t underestimate the pressure they’re going to place on Australia in the future in our established & emerging export markets.

Supply

Breakdowns in QLD processing plants last week alongside the Australia day public holiday has caused issues for fed cattle to be processed – weakening demand from feedlots for feeder cattle as supply backs up.
Jan-26 beef exports have broken the record set in January 2025 – my estimate made last week was well and truly overrun… why?? Because exporters are rushing to move big volumes of product into China where they can to secure a better market price before quota is hit, as well as other countries (eg South Korea) with reset quota from January 1.
- Australia shipped 16,000 mt to China in January – 12% higher than Jan-24 levels.
Cattle numbers out of the yards rebounded as temperatures eased this week – whilst feedlots tell me direct consignments continue to flow very strongly – there’s little difficulty sourcing numbers at the minute.
For those interested in statistics – Brazilian beef exports have grown 188% since 2015 or 2.018m metric tons – that rise in actual volumes in a decade is more than Australia has ever exported…

Demand

With the mercury easing this week, demand experienced a favourable uptick as producers mobility improved and some optimism returned post the heat.
- I also get the feeling there’s been producers chasing cattle based on the forecast of rain – wanting to get in before it rallies…
Feedlots are now booking into March & April – taking their longest forward position in some time – demand you’d call them would be subdued in February with plenty of numbers put in front of them.
Expect processors to do the same over the next few weeks – going long on their position with booking cattle forwards as numbers continue to present – this subdues demand and allows for softer pricing due to plenty of stock on offer.
Heavy Steer & Processor Cow prices in the second half of 2026 stand to come under some genuine pressure – particularly once Brazil fills its 1.1 million metric ton quota with China & the remaining beef has to be rediverted into the US and other markets.

Price

The market right now has a very March 2025 feel to it – whereby one genuine, widespread rain event would see prices rally very quickly, but currently it feels quiet nervous and unsettled.
With temperatures cooling, prices saw an uptick this week as markets firmed in the yards – grids have continued to ease on feeder cattle – back another 10-15c/kg lwt across the board.
The model forecast below shows genuine widespread falls for the central regions of the country into western NSW over the next week – if it were to deliver, prices should pick up quickly, but I suspect with that being unlikely – the market might feel a bit flat next week when this system is a dud – influencing sentiment and therefore prices..

Weather

A tropical system in the Coral Sea that’s likely to form and reach the QLD coast (Wide Bay / Fraser Coast) next weekend is the focus system to watch – potentially bringing rain to CQ, the Downs & into northern NSW.
January 2026 root zone soil moisture below – further evidence of this widening drought throughout Central & northern NSW & Southern & Western QLD.
- Red shaded areas are below average to very much below average.

image-20260224112518-1

This is the forecast which is getting producers excited – particularly those in Western NSW

Meats & Livestock

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