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Base Metal Commentary

By: Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Demand Analyst, EMEA and Asia region

Is Aluminium’s Supply Squeeze About To Get Tighter?
 
Natalie Scott-Gray
Senior Metals Analyst
The LME base metal index has remained somewhat muted in morning trading, following a strong end to the week, after disappointing US nonfarm payroll data on Friday afternoon took strength out of the U.S. dollar and put into question (once again), the timeline over QE tapering.
 
U.S. NONFARM PAYROLLS, UNEMPLOYMENT AND JOB LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE
Source: Bloomberg 
 
Indeed, nonfarm payrolls for August came in much lower than market forecasts, with a reading of growth at 235,000 versus a forecast of 733,000 (and a July reading of 943,000). Private payrolls similarly followed the same pattern (missing market expectations of 610,000 and instead coming in at 243,000), although employment in manufacturing singled itself out, with gains of 37,000, exceeding market forecasts of 25,000. As a result, the all-important labour force participation rate (which measures the number of people in the labour force as a percentage of the working-age population); remain unchanged, although overall unemployment improved to 5.2%, from 5.4% in July. While there can be no certainty that this will impact the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on 21-22nd September, in which not only will we receive updated forecasts outlooks, but expect to hear more over the timing for tapering; it certainly does reflect the uncertainty that the spread of the delta variant carries with it. Furthermore, all eyes will look towards the next September reading for nonfarm figures, especially as pandemic pay checks are set to end this month.   
 
LME 3M BASE METAL INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
 
However, while the index may appear muted this morning, given declines across copper, nickel and lead, all focus is being pulled towards aluminium, which in morning trading has touched upon its highest level since May 2011 on the LME and its highest level on record on the SHFE, as a military coup in Guinea over the weekend has placed further pressure on the supply side of the market. Indeed, on Sunday evening, it was announced that Guinea’s military special forces, led by Colonel Mamday Doumbouya, had seized power from the Government, suspending the constitution. As it stands, Guinea is the largest exporter to China of bauxite, which is the raw material that is converted to alumina, which then goes onto create aluminium. While there have been no reports of disruptions to bauxite operations in the country at present, the first meeting between the military and overthrown Government cabinet to discuss ‘the transition of power’, is set to take place today. 
 
LME 3M PRICE PERFORMANCE
Source: Bloomberg
 
LME & SHFE ALUMINIUM QUARTERLY AVERAGES 
 
Source: Bloomberg
 
CHINESE ALUMINIUM RC/TC CHARGES
 
Source: Bloomberg
 
 
This news for aluminium comes on the back of a six week stretch, in which aluminium has continued to buck the general trend of the base metal suite, having jumped 12% over the period, versus a rise of just 0.4% for the suite (excluding tin). This is due to the largest aluminium producer in the world, China, undergoing a supply squeeze, with production being hampered from flooding, power shortages, supply bottlenecks as a result of the COVID-19 delta variant, in addition to China’s pledge towards decarbonisation targets. Based on a Antaike presentation last week, it is believed as much as 2.331Mt of aluminium output has been lost so far this year in the country, which (based on 2020 Chinese output figures), amounts to 5.9%. Looking ahead, the Government’s continued efforts to keep commodity prices in check and avoid inflation being passed on from producer prices down to the consumer, have seen the announcement of the release of a third batch of aluminium into the market (via open auction) from its state reserves (please note this is on the back of the release of 140,000t of the metal in two open auctions in July). In addition to this the CNMC (which is responsible for ~ 70% of domestic production) conducted a meeting last week, in which it vowed to maintain price stability and ensure the supply of aluminium. The realisation that more production cuts are likely ahead, especially on the back of emission led drivers, is hampering their efforts. Indeed, it is forecast that on a global basis, aluminium is set to shift into a deficit this year on the back of reduced Chinese output and increased demand outside China.
 
 
CHINESE IMPORTS OF BAUXITE BY COUNTRY 
 
Source: Bloomberg
 
GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF ALUMINIUM
 
Source: Bloomberg
 
CHINESE IMPORTS OF BAUXITE 
 
Source: Bloomberg
 
DIVERGENCE IN CHINESE CPI VERSUS PPI
 
Source: Bloomberg
 
On a final note, something of interest to watch in this sector of the market for a longer-term outlook will be developments over China’s new electricity pricing policy, which is set to begin in 2023. Here the NDRC announced last week that it will improve electricity pricing for the aluminium industry with the classification standard lowering to 13,450kWh/t (from 13,650kWh/t) by 2023 and then 13,300 by 2025. As part of the move, all current preferential power treatment to aluminium smelters will have to stop effective immediately, while the use of renewable energy, excluding hydropower, if higher than 15% of total consumption, will result in a smaller rise in tariffs. Interestingly, rumours in the market at present have suggested that China is likely to announce at the UN Climate Change Summit in November, plans to almost double its current solar and wind energy output, which if confirmed, would support the industry change. This certainly supports our view that the aluminium market is likely to remain in tight balance over the medium term. 
 
 
ALUMINIUM PRODUCTION BY POWER SOURCE 
 
Source: Bloomberg
 
PROPOSED NEW CHINESE RENEWABLE PROJECT ENERGY OUTPUT 
Source: Bloomberg
 
 
 
 
 
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