Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now.  Download your report  →

StoneX logo

Bi-Weekly Coffee Report

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

CoffeeNetwork Bi Weekly Coffee Report 

November 1-15

image-20200803134820-1 CoffeeNetwork Highlights​​​​​​:

  • Financial Results:

    • Starbucks: Global comparable store sales declined 9%, driven by a 23% decrease in comparable transactions, partially offset by a 17% increase in average ticket
    • Kraft Heinz: Net sales increased 6.0 percent versus the year-ago period to $6.4 billion, including an unfavorable 0.3 percentage point impact from currency.
    • Keurig Green Mountain: Net sales for the third quarter of 2020 increased 5.2% to $3.02 billion, compared to $2.87 billion in the year-ago period.
  • ICO: Global output in 2019/20 is estimated at 168.84 million bags, 2.5% lower than in 2018/19. Consumption is estimated to fall by 0.9% to 167.59 million bags following an increase of 4.6% in 2018/19, leaving a surplus of 1.24 million bags.
  • Costa Rica: The country exported 17,416 bags of coffee in October, up 77.2% from the 9,831 bags exported in the same month last year.
  • Central America: Hurricane Eta brought heavy rains in the north of Honduras, with some floods and overflowing rivers, mainly in the departments of Cortés, Atlántida and Colón. Guatemala and Nicaragua have also experienced heavy rainfall and flooding. No reports of damage to coffee plantations at this time.
  • Vietnam: Typhoon Molave hit Vietnam and brought heavy rainfall and flooding to some coffee areas. Full extent of damage still being assessed.
  • ICE Certified Stocks: Arabica stocks were reported at 1.24 million bags as of November 30, down 41.5% from the same time last year. Robusta stocks were down 13.7% year on year at 2.21 million bags.

ICE Certified Arabica Stocks

image-20210302123840-1
ICE Certified Robusta Stocks

image-20210302123854-2

 

Brazil:

  • CEPEA: In Espírito Santo, agents reported that rains in the first half of November contributed to fruit setting and the physiological condition of plants. In Rondônia, although rains have been more frequent, the 2021/22 crop was damaged by the dry weather and strong sunlight in previous months. According to agents, coffee trees are now debilitated, and the setting of flower and fruits was hampered, which should negatively influence next season. 

 

image-20210216142239-7 Weather Update:

image-20200803135302-7

ENSO

BOM: Most models suggest La Niña will peak in December, with around half the models anticipating a strong event. While there is some possibility that the peak strength could reach levels similar to 2010–12 there are some differences. Australian and international climate models suggest it is likely to continue at least into February 2021.

NOAA: La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~85% chance) and into spring 2021 (~60% chance during February-April).

image-20200803135302-8

BRAZIL

Northeastern showers will provide exceptional moisture for flowering and advancing coffee this week. Dryness across the southern end of the region will cause soil moisture to decrease a bit, but wetness is expected to return in the long-term forecast.

 

Looking Ahead:

image-20210302124019-3 Date

image-20210302124019-4 ICE

image-20210302124019-5Macro

image-20210302124019-6 Fundamental

Monday, November 2

 

 

Central America coffee exports (+/- 2 days)

Tuesday, November 3

 

Brazil Markit manufacturing PMI

           Balance of trade

US Election day

China Caixin services/composite PMI

Colombia coffee exports (+/- 2 days)

Wednesday, November 4

 

EU Markit services/composite PMI

      PPI

UK Markit services/composite PMI

Brazil Industrial production

US ADP employment

      Balance of trade

      Markit services/composite PMI

      ISM non manufacturing

CEPEA weekly coffee report

Thursday, November 5

 

EU Retail sales

UK BoE interest rate decision

Brazil Markit services/composite PMI

US Challenger job cuts

      Initial jobless claims

      Nonfarm productivity

      Fed interest rate decision

 

Friday, November 6

 

Brazil Inflation rate

US Non farm payrolls

China Balance of trade

CN weekly basis report

Monday, November 9

 

Brazil BCB focus market readout

US Consumer inflation expectation

China Inflaton rate

            PPI

CeCafe Brazil coffee exports (+/- 2 days)

Tuesday, November 10

 

UK Unemployment rate

EU ZEW economic sentiment index

US JOLTS job openings

BOM La Nina update

 

IBGE coffee update

 

Wednesday, November 11

 

Brazil Retail sales

CEPEA weekly coffee report

Thursday, November 12

ICE December Arabica options expiry

UK GDP

       Balance of trade

       Industrial production

       Goods trade balance

EU Industrial production

US Inflation rate

      Initial jobless claims

NOAA La Nina update

 

Sintercafe Virtual event (November 12-13)

 

Friday, November 13

 

EU GDP

      Balance of trade

      Employment change

Brazil IBC-BR economic activity

            Business confidence

US PPI

      Michigan consumer sentiment

CN weekly basis report

 

Planning Ahead in November:

 

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

16

GCA stocks for October

 

Colombia closed for holiday

 

17

18

 

19

ICE December Arabica first notice day

20

 

21

 

22

 

23

 

24

ICE Europe November Robusta last trading day

25

 

26

Thanksgiving day Holiday

27

28

29

 

30

 

 

 

  • Coffee

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Related articles for Coffee

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Daily Coffee Report 8/6/26

Daily coffee report

StoneX Coffee Team
StoneX Coffee Team
  • Coffee

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.