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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

CoffeeNetwork Bi Weekly Coffee Report 

April 15-30

image-20200803134820-1 CoffeeNetwork Highlights​​​​​

  • ICO: World coffee exports amounted to 10.48 million bags in February 2021, down 6% compared with 11.16 million in February 2020.
  • Fitch Solutions: Forecasts that global coffee consumption will increase, from an estimated 161.2mn 60kg bags in 2020 to 175.0mn 60kg bags by 2025. Following 2.3% y-o-y decline in global coffee consumption in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, they expect growth to average 1.7% y-o-y from 2021-2025. This growth will be at a slower rate than the five years leading up to 2020, which averaged 3.0% y-o-y from 2015 to 2019, largely the result of decelerating growth in most developed markets (DM)s, with consumption levels in some markets (such as Japan) having started to decline.
  • NCDT: The the Spring 2021 National Coffee Data Trends (NCDT) showed COVID-19 drove record coffee consumption at home, with 85% of coffee drinkers having at least one cup at home (up 8% since January 2020) and average daily consumption steady at nearly 2 cups per capita. Workplace coffee consumption is down 55% since January 2020, but on-the-go options are flourishing - drive through and app-based ordering are both up 30%.
  • US Coffee Imports: The latest data from the US Commerce Department showed that the US imported 88,536,297 kilograms of Arabica coffee in February, up 6.3% from the 83,273,101 kilograms imported in January. This brought cumulative coffee imports for the first two months of the 2021 calendar year to 171,809,398 kilograms.
  • Colombia: Colombia produced 1.050 million bags of coffee in March, up 30%, or 44,000 bags, from the 806,000 bags recorded in the same month of 2020. Colombian coffee exports in March exceeded 1.1 million bags of 60 kg, 21% more compared to the 948,000 bags exported in March 2020.
  • Costa Rica: The country exported 170,501 bags of coffee in March, 4% higher than the 164,010 bags exported in March of last year. This brought cumulative exports for the first six months of the current October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year to 385,880 bags, down 4.2% from the 402,996 bags exported in the same period of the previous coffee year.
  • Honduras: Coffee exports from Honduras fell 20% in the coffee year 2020-2021 through April 8 to 2.47 million bags, down from the 3.1 million bags shipped in the same period last year.
    • Honduras coffee sale contracts fell 13% in the coffee year through April 8 to 3.34 million 60-kg bags, down from 3.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.
  • GCA: Coffee stocks in warehouses in all ports of the United States totaled 5,679,162 bags for the month ending March 31st, which is 1.9% or 111,409 bags lower than the previous month and 5.7% or 344,406 bags lower from March 2020. The five-year average for March is 6,221,002 bags. March stocks have fallen an average of 69,963 bags over the last five years.image-20210415141628-8
  • ICE Certified Stocks: Arabica stocks were reported at 1.88 million bags as of April 15th, down 1% from the same time last year. Robusta stocks were up 4.3% year on year at 2.45 million bags.

ICE Certified Arabica Stocks
image-20210415140053-1

 

ICE Certified Robusta Stocks

image-20210415140109-2

 

Brazil:

  • 2021-2022 Harvest: The harvesting of Brazil’s 2021-2022 Robusta crop started in Rondônia this month. For Espírito Santo, peak harvesting is expected to begin in late April and early May.
  • Minimum price: For the 2021/22 harvest, the new minimum price for Arabica coffee for the whole of Brazil was set by Conab at R $ 369.40, an increase of 1.46% in relation to the period of 2020/2021, which was R $ 364.09.
  • CeCafe: Brazil exported 3 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in March, down 2.7% from the 3.2 million 60-kg bags exported during the same month last year. Arabica exports totaled 2.7 million 60-kg bags, down 6.3% from the 2.9 million 60-kg bags exported in March 2020. Robusta exports totaled 351,735 60-kg bags, up 38.7% from the 253,550 60-kg bags exported in the same month last year.image-20210415140153-3

image-20210216142239-7 Weather Update:

image-20200803135302-7

ENSO

BOMThe El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral, and with no sign of El Niño or La Niña developing. Climate model outlooks suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain at neutral ENSO levels at least until September.

NOAAa transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral is likely in the next month or so, with an 80% chance of ENSO-neutral during May-July 2021.

image-20200803135302-8

BRAZIL

Next week, heavier rain is forecast in the north of Espírito  Santo and south of Bahia. In Paraná, Minas Gerais and São Paulo, precipitation will be weaker. Even so, the tendency is for soil moisture to increase in most producing areas in one week..

 

Looking Ahead:

image-20210415140320-4 Date

image-20210415140320-5 ICE

image-20210415140320-6Macro

image-20210415140320-7 Fundamental

Friday, April 16

 

EU Inflation data

      Balance of trade

US Housing starts

      Michigan consumer sentiment

CN basis report

Monday, April 19

 

Brazil BCB focus market readout

            IBC-BR economic activity

            Consumer confidence

 

Tuesday, April 20

 

UK Employment change

       Unemployemnt rate

 

Wednesday, April 21

ICE Europe May Robusta options expiry

UK Inflation data

       PPI

  

CEPEA weekly coffee report

Thursday, April 22

ICE May Arabica first notice day

EU ECB interest rate decision

       Consumer confidence flash

US Jobless claims

UK Gfk consumer confidence

 

Friday, April 23

 

UK Retail sales

      Markit manufacturing/
      services/composite PMI

EU Markit manufacturing/
      services/composite PMI

US Markit manufacturing/
      services/composite PMI

      New home sales

CN basis report

Monday, April 26

 

Brazil BCB focus market readout

US Durable goods orders

 

Tuesday, April 27

ICE Europe May Robusta first notice day

Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI

US S&P/Case-Schiller home price index

BOM ENSO update

Wednesday, April 28

 

Brazil FGV consumer confidence

US Wholesale inventories

      Fed interest rate decision

CEPEA weekly coffee report

Thursday, April 29

 

EU Economic sentiment

      Consumer confidence

US GDP

      Jobless claims

      New home sales

China NBS manufacturing PMI

           Non manufacturing PMI

Vietnam coffee exports (+/- 3 days)

Friday, April 30

 

EU GDP

       Inflation data

       Unemployment rate

Brazil Unemployment rate

US Personal spending

      Michigan consumer expectations

CN basis report

 

Uganda coffee exports (+/- 3 days)

 

Planning Ahead in May:

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

3

Robusta market closed

4

5

6

 

7

 

8

 

9

 

10

 

11

 

12

IBGE Brazil crop update

13

NOAA Enso update

14

 

15

16

17

GCA stocks data

 

 

  • Coffee

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