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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report - February 2-15

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

Bi Weekly Coffee Report 
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor

image-20220201160316-10CoffeeNetwork Highlights

  • Citi Research: Global coffee production could reach 178.2 million bags for the 2022-2023 coffee year. Demand could reach 177.1 million bags, indicating a supply surplus of 1.1 million bags. This is following a deficit of 9.4 million bags registered in the 2021-2022 crop, according to the analyst firm.
  • UK Coffee Shops: A new report from Allegra World Coffee Portal, titled Project Café UK 2022, showed that the UK's £4.4bn ($6bn) branded coffee shop market grew 43% over the last 12 months to regain 87% of pre-pandemic market value with outlet numbers now exceeding 2019 levels.
  • Port NOLA: “Port NOLA has not experienced backlogs and the congestion that major West Coast and East Coast ports have experienced lately.”
    • Port NOLA actually welcomed its first bulk coffee vessel in December. The last time a bulk coffee vessel was handled was 30 years ago.
    • Data supplied by the port showed that in 2021, 16,980 TEUs of coffee entered the port, this is compared to 16,903 TEUs and 14,242 TEUs in 2020 and 2019, respectively.
    • “We continue to see an increase in coffee moved year over year. Folgers and Community Coffee are top importers of coffee at Port NOLA.”
  • ECF: Coffee stocks in the ports of Antwerp, Hamburg, Le Havre, Barcelona, Trieste, Genoa, Napoli, Tallin, London, Felixstowe, and Bremen (partly) totaled 722,440 tons (12.04 million 60-kg bags) as of December 31st. This includes 259,942 tons (4.33 million bags) of Robusta, 215,013 tons (3.58 million bags) of Natural Arabica and 247,486 tons (4.12 million bags) of washed Arabica. This is a 2.4% decline from the 740,429 tons (12.34 million bags) recorded as of November 30th.
  • Vollers: “In the EU the shortage of truck drivers is currently hitting us the hardest. The availability of transport in the EU is currently really bad and very expensive.”
    • “I would say that in Germany the stocks are still quite high, but in the rest of the EU they are constantly going down,”
    • certain origins have become difficult or impossible to obtain freely on the market.
  • Vietnam: The country exported 2.92 million bags in January, up 9% from the same month last year. This would bring cumulative exports for the first four months of the current October 2021 to September 2022 coffee year to 7.91 million bags, 0.75% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year.
  • Costa Rica: The country’s exports total 87,696 bags in January, up 75.5% from the 49,960 bags exported in January last year. This brought cumulative exports for the first four months of the current October 2021 to September 2022 coffee year to 169,501 bags, 22.3% higher than the 138,634 bags exported in the same period in the previous coffee year.
  • Certfified Stocks: ICE Arabica certified stocks totaled 1.2 million bags as of February 1st, down 25.9% from the 1.62 million bags registered at the same time last year. ICE Robusta certified stocks totaled 1.56 million bags as of February 1st, down 34.2% from the same time last year.

image-20220201160050-5Brazil:

  • EPAMIG: Despite 2023 being an “on-year” for Brazil’s Arabica crop, researchers in the country’s main Arabica producing region, Minas Gerais, say production will be close to that of 2022 because crops have not yet reached their productive peak and some will only resume production after pruning due to the frost that occurred in July.

    • 1.3 million hectares are expected to be directed for coffee in the whole state, 338,000 hectares for crops in formation (not producing) and 990,000 hectares for producing crops.
  • Citi Research: Brazil’s production for the 2022-2023 year is forecast at 64.5 million bags, up from the 55.6 million bags produced in the previous coffee year.
  • Comexim: Brazil’s 2022-2023 crop forecast at 63.2 million bags, down from the 54.2 million bags produced in the previous coffee year. Arabica production is forecast at 41.1 million bags, up from the 35.2 million bags in 21-22 and Robusta production was pegged at 22.1 million bags, up from the 18.9 million bags of 21-22.

 

image-20220201160122-7 Weather update:

image-20220201160102-6

ENSO

BOM: A mature La Niña event remains active in the tropical Pacific. Climate models suggest the 2021–22 La Niña is near or at its peak, with a return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) likely early in the southern hemisphere autumn.

NOAA: La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (67% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (51% chance during April-June 2022).

image-20220201160050-5

BRAZIL

Rainfall will be good in the coming day, improving soil moiture and aiding in cherry growth.

 

Looking Ahead:

image-20220201155922-1 Date

image-20220201155947-2 ICE

image-20220201160006-3Macro

 image-20220201160020-4Fundamental

Wednesday, February 2

 

Vietnam Tet holiday observed until 2/4

Brazil IPC-Fipe inflation

            Industrial production

            Interest rate decision

EU Inflation

US ADP employment change

CEPEA weekly coffee update

Thursday, February 3

 

EU Markit services/composite PMI

       PPI

       ECB interest rate decision

UK Markit services/composite PMI

      BoE interest rate decision

US Challenger job cuts

      Non farm productivity

      Jobless claims

      Markit services/composite PMI

      ISM non manufacturing

Colombia coffee exports (+/- 3 days)

 

ICO monthly report and statistics

Friday, February 4

 

EU Retail sales

US Unemployment rate

      Non farm payrolls

CN basis report

Monday, February 7

 

Brazil BCB focus market readout

 

Tuesday, February 8

 

US Balance of trade

 

Wednesday, February 9

 

Brazil Inflation rate

           Retail sales

CEPEA weekly coffee update

Thursday, February 10

ICE March Arabica options expiry

US Inflation rate

       Jobless claims

Brazil Business confidence

NOAA Enso

 

IBGE coffee crop update

 

Coca Cola financial

Friday, February 11

 

UK GDP

       Balance of trade

       Industrial productive

       Goods trade balance

US Michigan consumer sentiment

CN basis report

 

Cecafe coffee exports (+/- 3 days)

Monday, February 14

 

EU Industrial production

Brazil BCB focus market readout

 

 

Tuesday, February 15

 

UK Unemployment change

EU Balance of trade

      Employment change

      GDP

US PPI

China Inflation

           PPI

GCA stocks

 

BOM Enso update

 

Planning Ahead in February

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

 

 

 

 

16

ICE March Robusta options expiry

17

ICE March Arabica first notice day

18

 

19

 

20

 

21

Arabica market closed for President’s Day

22

 

23

ICE March Robusta first notice day

24

Keurig Dr. Pepper financial results-

25

Brazil closed for Carnival

26

27

28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Coffee

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