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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report - July 1-15

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

CoffeeNetwork Bi Weekly Coffee Report 

July 01-15

image-20210517180556-2CoffeeNetwork Highlight

  • USDA Global Coffee Report: World coffee production for 2021/22 is forecast down 11.0 million bags from the previous year to 164.8 million, due primarily to Brazil’s combined effect of Arabica trees entering the off‐year of the biennial production cycle and a weather‐related shortfall, the US department of Agriculture said in an extensive report on world production, markets and trade.  As a result of lower output, global ending inventories are expected to drop 7.9 million bags to 32.0 million.  World coffee bean exports are expected down 4.8 million bags to 115.5 million amid lower production and exports from Brazil more than offset higher shipments from Vietnam.  Global consumption is rising 1.8 million bags to 165.0 million, with the largest gains in the European Union, the United States, and Brazil.
  • Central America: Nespresso Joins Program To boost Economic Opportunities In El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras - Nespresso, the high-end brand of coffee said it is  committed to improving livelihoods in the Northern Triangle by expanding its existing coffee sourcing activities in Guatemala, and by starting to source quality coffees from El Salvador and Honduras from this year on, creating new economic opportunities for smallholder farmers and replicating the positive social and environmental impact of Nespresso’s programs in more communities.
  • Honduras: Coffee exports fell 6% as of June 15 amid lower supply disrupted by two hurricanes in 2020 and lower labour force to pick the beans amid an ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. The country shipped 4.23 million bags of 60-kg in the coffee year October 2020 through June 15, down from 4.64 million bags in the same period last year, according to most recent figures from the coffee institute IHCAFE.
  • Colombia: Torrential rains is the new headache for Colombian coffee growers, who not only have had to endure to a national strike that completes 50 days blocking roads, but now have to face landslides and blocked roads because of torrential rains. In Tolima, the country’s third-largest coffee producing province, torrential rains have cut the transit of coffee trucks as rains destroyed the road that links Planadas with Tolima’s capital Ibague and Planadas with Neiva. Planadas, which is in the midst of picking its main harvest, coffee has won several international prices, and it is one of the most wanted coffees produced in Colombia among international buyers.
  • Guatemala: Coffee exports in the coffee year 2020-2021 through May 31 totalled 1.99 million bags of 60-kg, almost 3% lower than in the same period in the previous coffee year, according to most recent figures from the Guatemala’s coffee exporters association Adec. This represents a 2.97% drop in exports, which means the shortfall has narrowed from 28.6% in the coffee year through January 13, and lower than 13.45% shortfall registered as of April 30.
  • Ethiopia: According to the USDA, coffee production is expected to reach 7.6 million bags of arabica variety in 2021/22 – the country is the third largest arabica producer, behind Brazil and Colombia. The production estimated is 1.67% higher than the previous year, when the country produced 7.47 million bags. Coffee exports are expected to decrease 3.3% in 2021/22. On the other hand, coffee consumption is expected to increase 13% to 3.55 million bags, nearly half of the country’s production.
  • Peru: The country exported 362,113 bags of 60-kg in January-April, up by almost 40,000 bags over the same period last year, the Peruvian coffee and cacao chamber said. Peru had exported 322,455 bags of 60-kg in January-April 2020, but shipments are lower than the 487,859 bags shipped in the same period last year, according to figures from the chamber.
  • Rabobank: Global coffee supply will register a deficit of 3.5 million bags of 60-kg in the coffee year 2021-2022 due to lower output from Brazil amid a decline of 24%-35% of Arabica beans, falling supply from Vietnam and blockades and protests that hit Colombia, Guilherme Morya, senior economic analyst at Rabobank Brazil said.
  • ICE Certified Stocks: Arabica stocks were reported at 2.19 million bags as of June 30th, up 32% from the same time last year. Robusta stocks were up 27% year on year at 2.5 million bags.

ICE Certified Arabica Stocks

image 14480

ICE Certified Robusta Stocks

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  • Brazil:
  • Brazil Coffee Crop Tour - Second Round: Watch here the video with reports of our trip and interviews. Considering all the data and aspects observed during the second round of the Coffee Crop Tour and the information gathered from StoneX partners, we increased  our estimate for Brazilian coffee production in 2021/22 to 53.7 million bags, high by 4.5% from the estimate published in January (51.4 million bags). The current estimate represents a reduction of 17.5% compared to 2020/21 production, estimated at  65.1 million bags. For the Robusta variety, we expect an increase of 11%, from 18 million bags in  2020/21 to 20 million bags in 2021/22. For the Arabica variety, we estimate an decrease of  28.5%, from 47.1 million bags in 2020/21 to 33.5 million bags in 2021/22 (full report here).
  • Certified stocks: As of June 30th, Brazilian coffee stocks totaled 1,151,391 bags (52.6%) whereas Honduras coffee totaled 867,553,bags (39.6%).
  • New StoneX Weather Report: The StoneX Intelligence Brazil team started to publish a new report for coffee producing areas in the country. The report brings a more specific information about rainfall forescast for coffee regions, which estimates the volume of rainfall expected for key municipalities. The report will be published daily on the Market Intelligence Portal. Access today’s report here. 

image 14483

    Min temps recorded on June 30 by INMET stations in Brazil

    image 14484

     

    image-20210517180841-9 Weather update:

    image-20210517180855-10

    ENSO

    NOAA: “ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere summer (78% chance for the June-August season) and fall (50% chance for the SeptemberNovember season)”.

    BOM: “The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. All of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau anticipate NINO3.4 will remain neutral winter, with one model reaching the La Niña threshold during September, and two of the seven models indicating the possibility of La Niña in late spring.”

    image-20210517180908-11

    BRAZIL

    StoneX weather report points to a dry weather for most coffee producing areas in Brazil for the next 14 days. From day 1 to day 14, no rainfall is expected for coffee areas in South of Minas, Cerrado, Forest of Minas, São Paulo, and Paraná. From day 7 to day 14, light showers are expected for some coffee areas in Bahia, with accumulated of 14.6 mm in Barra do Choça, 6.2 mm in Itamaraju, and 9.7 mm in Prado.

    Frost on coffee areas in Brazil: Brazil is facing the strongest cold wave for the season. According to weather agencies, during past night (30) frost was recorded on coffee areas in Paraná, southwest of São Paulo and some specific areas in Mogiana Paulista and South of Minas. However, it is still unknown the size of the impact. Frost will continue to be on focus of the market over the next days.

     

    StoneX min temp forecast for main coffee producing regions

    image 14485

    Looking Ahead:

    image-20210517180926-12 Date

    image-20210517180938-13 ICE

    image-20210517180951-14Macro

    image-20210517181000-15 Fundamental

    Wednesday, June 30

     

    UK GDP

    EU CPI

    US ADP National Employment Report

          Pending Home Sales

          Chicago PMI

    Brazil National Household Sample Survey

               Fiscal Statistics

     

    CEPEA weekly coffee update

    Thursday, July 01

     

    EU Manufacturing PMI

    US Jobless Claims

          Manufacturing PMI

          Construction Spending

    Brazil Manufacturing PMI

          Trade Balance

    China Manufacturing PMI

     

    Friday , July 02

     

     

    EU PPI

    US Employment Situation

          Trade Balance

          Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders

    Brazil Industrial Production

    CN basis report

    ICO June Report (+/- 3 days)

    Monday, July 05

     

     

    US Holiday – Independence Day

    Brazil Services PMI

               Composite PMI

    EU Services PMI

          Composite PMI

    UK Services PMI

          Composite PMI

    China Caixin Services PMI

    Colombia export data (+/- 3 days)

    Tuesday, July 06

    ICE July Arabica First notice day

    US Services PMI

          Composite PMI

    UK Construction PMI

    EU Retail Sales

    BOM ENSO update

    Wednesday, July 07

     

     

    US JOLTS Job Openings

    China FX Reserves

    Brasil Retail Sales

    CEPEA weekly coffee update

    Thursday, July 08

     

    Brazil Quarterly Survey of Animal Slaughter

    China CPI

     

    Friday , July 09

    ICE July Robusta First notice day

    US Wholesale Trade Sales

    Brazil Holiday in state of São Paulo

               National Broad Consumer Price Index

    UK Industrial Production

          Trade Balance

    CN basis report

    Monday, July 12

     

    US WASDE Report

    China Trade Balance

    Cecafé Coffee Exports (+/- 3 days)

     

    Tuesday, July 13

     

    Brazil Monthly Services Survey

    US CPI

          Federal Budget Balance

     

    Wednesday, July 14

     

    UK CPI

          PPI

    EU Industrial Production

    US PPI

    China GDP

               Industrial Production

               Retail Sales

    CEPEA weekly coffee update

    • Planning Ahead in June

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    • Coffee

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    Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

    August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

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    Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

    August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

    Mike Castle
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