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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report - June 1-15

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

CoffeeNetwork Bi Weekly Coffee Report 

June 1-15

image-20210517180556-2CoffeeNetwork Highlight

  • Colombia: Colombian protests continue, marking a month since they first began with roadblocks continuing to inhibit the delivery of coffee to ports. Expectations from the Coffee Growers Federation are that unlocking the bottleneck could take three to four months if the roadblocks are lifted. Roadblocks have prevented coffee exports to reach the Pacific port of Buenaventur. Coffee is not arriving Caribbean ports because roads to reach Caribbean ports are also blocked. International shipping companies have stated they will not dock in Colombian ports located on the Pacific coast of Buenaventura as ports have reached maximum storage capacity hit by the national strike that has roads linking the interior of the country with Buenaventura fully blocked. Buenaventura, located on the Colombian Pacific. The USDA forecasts Colombian production at 14.1M bags, a 1.4% fall Y/Y, (2020/21 production revised upward by 200,000 bags to 14.3M). Excessive rainfall due to the impacts of La Niña were attributed to the lower output. Domestic consumption was estimated at 2.1M bags, up 5% Y/Y. Exports were estimated at 13.5M bags for the new season, down 2.2% Y/Y due to lower production. Continued logistical disruption is also expected to impact export growth.
  • Honduras: The USDA estimates the 2020/21 crop at 5.5M bags, down 12% Y/Y from 6.24M bags. Wet weather has prompted increased cases of leaf rust. Exports are forecast to total 5.0M bags in the new season, down 11% Y/Y from 5.6M bags. The impacts of Hurricanes Eta and Iota, which damaged over 2,000 km of roads are still being repaired and are likely to cause logistical disruption in the new season.
  • Vietnam: The USDA estimates 2021/22 production at 30.83M bags in 2021/22, up 6.3% from the 29.0M bags produced in 2020/21. Robusta production will account for 29.68M bags (96.3%).The slow pace of shipments so far this marketing season due to the continued shortage of shipping containers, higher freight rates and strong competition among other origins resulted in the USDA lowering its estimate for 2020/21 exports to 23.65M bags, which would be the lowest volume shipped since 2014/15. Exports in 2021/22 are forecast to increase to 25.85M bags, approximately 2.7% below the five year average. Beginning stocks moving into the new season are forecast to increase to 7.23M bags, the highest volume of carryover in at least the past decade, with the lower volume of exports coupling with lower domestic consumption. The strong volume of carryover will coincide with a recovery in production (5.1% above the five year average) which would potentially allow for higher exports in the new season.
  • Indonesia: Indonesia’s production is expected to remain stable in 2021/22 at 10.6M bags, down approximately 70,000 bags from the 10.7M bags estimated to have been produced in 2020/21. Lower estimates are attributed to reduced Robusta yields as well as lower Arabica production in the first harvest, due to above normal rainfall in late 2020 and early 2021. Consumption is estimated at 4.7M bags, up 225,000 bags from 2020/21, but remaining below pre-pandemic levels. Exports are forecast at 6.5M bags, up 100,000 bags Y/Y.
  • Ethiopia: Production was estimated at 7.6M bags for 2021/22 by the USDA on good weather, essentially in line with last year’s production. Exports are estimated at 4.1M bags, up 100,000 bags Y/Y with consumption pegged at 3.5M bags, down 50,000 bags Y/Y.
  • Peru: Production is forecast to rebound by 17% Y/Y in 2021/22, reaching 3.95M bags on improved weather and international prices. Exports are forecast at 3.85M bags, up 16% Y/Y, according to the USDA.
  • Guatemala: The USDA estimated production at 3.34M bags in 2021/22, up 10% Y/Y. Consumption is forecast to increase by 13% Y/Y to 563,000 bags with exports expected to grow by 8% Y/Y to 3.16M bags.
  • Mexico: The USDA forecasts production to increase by 1.6% Y/Y to 3.59M bags in 2021/22. Consumption is forecast at 2.6M bags with exports at 2.95M bags for 2021/22.
  • ICE Certified Stocks: Arabica stocks were reported at 2.08 million bags as of June 1st, up 17.0% from the same time last year. Robusta stocks were up 23.8% year on year at 2.64 million bags.

ICE Certified Arabica Stocks

image 13474

ICE Certified Robusta Stocks

image 13475

  • Brazil:
  • Certified stocks: As of Jun 1st, Brazilian coffee stocks totaled 1,139,242 bags (54.9%) whereas Honduras coffee totaled 753,386 bags (36.3%).
  • According to the USDA Agricultural Trade Office (ATO) in São Paulo, Brazilian coffee production should total 56.3 million bags in 2021/22, a 19% reduction compared to the previous estimate revised by the agency, which was 69.9 million bags in 2020/21. The USDA estimate for the 2020/21 season was revised from 67.9 to 69.9 million bags, with production of Arabica coffee estimated at 49.6 million bags and Robusta/Conilon seen at 20.2 million bags. Arabica production is forecast to total 35M bags, a 30% decline Y/Y due to negative bienniality and adverse weather. Conilon output is forecast at 21.3M bags, up 5.2% Y/Y. Brazilian consumption is forecast at 23.66M bags in 2021/22, up 1.5% Y/Y. Exports were estimated to total 45.03M bags in the current season with 35.22M bags forecast to be shipped in 2021/22. Carryover for 2020/21 is forecast at 2.5M bags with ending stocks in 2021/22 pegged at 1.5M bags.
  • Conab forecasts Brazilian production at 49.0M bags down 22.6% Y/Y with Arabica production estimated at 33.4M bags, down 31.5% Y/Y, with Conilon production at 15.4M bags, up 7.8% Y/Y.
  • Concerns have been raised regarding rising domestic prices in Brazil with Brazilian farmers reported to be attempting to renegotiate contracted sales agreed earlier in the year. Many farmers are expected to have secured sales in the range of 400 to 600 reais per bag, with the Cepea Arabica Price Index showing domestic Arabica prices pushing to record highs in the first few months of this year, which at the time would have been seen as strong prices to secure sales. Of course, the index shows that domestic prices have continued to push to fresh record highs, gaining 36.0% since the start of the year. Defaults on forward sales contracts could have serious implications for trading houses, with the potential risk of having to secure supply on the spot market presenting significant risks to profit margins.
  • Weather concerns remain a prominent factor, with temperatures forecast to drop below 10OC in southern Brazil in southern Brazil. Brazil’s National Weather System issued a water emergency warning covering major coffee growing regions such as Minas Gerais, for the first time 111 years.
  • Safras & Mercado estimate the coffee harvest is 17% complete as of 27th May, based on an output of 56.5M bags, falling behind the five year average of 20% at that stage. Farmers are expected to be postponing the harvest waiting for a higher percentage of ripe fruits.

 

image 13476

image-20210517180841-9 Weather update:

image-20210517180855-10

ENSO

NOAA: ENSO-Neutral conditions are now present with La Niña reported to have ended. ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (67% chance in June-August).

image-20210517180908-11

BRAZIL

Rainfall across the major producing region of Minas Gerais was below average over the course of the past month for the third consecutive month as dryness concerns continue to become more prevalent.  Southeastern Brazil (Espirito Santo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro & Sao Paulo) is forecast for liited rains over the next fortnight with the GFS model pointing to approximately 11mm of cumulative rainfall on average across the region. Extended forecast does currently point to potential heavy rains in Sul de Minas around 12th-14th June.  Southern Brazil (Parana, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina) are forecast for comparatively heavier rainfall of approximately 45mm over the next fortnight.

 

Looking Ahead:

image-20210517180926-12 Date

image-20210517180938-13 ICE

image-20210517180951-14Macro

image-20210517181000-15 Fundamental

Wednesday, June 2

 

EU PPI M/M & PPI Y/Y

US Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

Brazil Industrial Production

UK Net Consumer Credit, Money Supply

CN monthly reports

CEPEA weekly coffee update

Thursday, June 3

 

UK PMI

EU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI

US Non-Farm Productivity, ADP Employment Change (May), Jobless Claims

Brazil National Holiday

 

Friday, June 4

 

 

UK Construction PMI

US Jobless claims

      Leading Economic Index (LEI)

Brazil Composite PMI

ICO May Report (+/- 3 days)

CN basis report

Monday, June 7

 

 

UK Markit manufacturing / services /
      composite PMI

      Retail sales

EU Retail Sales

US Unemployment Rate

China Trade Balance

 

Tuesday, June 8

 

EU Gov Expenditure Q/Q, Gros Fix Cap Q/Q, Unemployment Q/Q, GDP Data.

Brazil Retail Sales

US Trade Balance

 

 

Wednesday, June 9

 

 

US Mortgage Applications  , Wholesale Inventories & Trade Sales  

China CPI, PPI, Money Supply (+/- five days)

CEPEA weekly coffee update

Thursday, June 10

 

 China Industrial Profit

US CPI, Jobless Claims

EU ECB Deposit Facility Rate

Vietnam Coffee Exports

Cecafé Coffee Exports (+/- 2-3 days)

Friday, June 11

 

EU Business Climate

UK Monthly GDP, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, Trade Balance

CN basis report

Monday, June 14

 

EU Industrial Production

US Goods trade balance

      Michigan consumer sentiment

      PCE

Brazil Economic Activity, Weekly Trade Balance

 

 

Tuesday, June 15

GCA USA Stock Report

US Retail Sales

UK Jobless Claims

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

EU Trade Balance

 

Wednesday, June 16

 

EU Labour Costs

US FOMC Rate Decision

Brazil Selic Rate

UK CPI, RPI, PPI

China Retail Sales, Industrial Production

CEPEA weekly coffee update

Thursday, June 17

 

EU PPI

Brazil FIPE CPI-Weekly

US Initial Jobless Claims

 

  • Planning Ahead in June

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

Brazil holiday: Corpus Christi

4

 

5

 

6

 

7

 

 

8

 

9

 

10

Vietnam Coffee Exports

Cecafé Coffee Exports (+/- 2-3 days)

 

11

 

12

 

13

14

15

GCA Warehouse Stocks

 

16

17

 

 

 

  • Coffee

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