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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report - May 15-31

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

CoffeeNetwork Bi Weekly Coffee Report 

May 15-31

image-20210517180556-2CoffeeNetwork Highlight

 

  • ICO: World coffee exports amounted to 11.94 million bags in March 2021, down 2.4% compared with 11.66 million in March 2020
  • Colombia: Colombian Pacific ports have been blocked since April 27 as some protestors, took on the streets to protest against a tax reform. The violent clashes left 27 people dead, according to official figures, although non-governmental organization claimed that the death toll total 47 in clashes during days of anti-government demonstrations. Coffee production in Colombia advanced 9% in April and reached 810,000  60-kg bags of green coffee, up by 66,000 bags from the 744,000 bags produced in the same month of 2020. But April’s coffee production is sharply lower than the 1.050 million bags recorded in March. In January-April,  production exceeded 4 million bags, 12% more than the 3.6 million in the first quarter of 2020. In the last 12 months, production exceeded 14.3 million bags, 2% more than the 14 million bags produced in the same previous period.
  • Costa Rica: The country exported 156,343 bags of coffee in April, up 4.0% from April 2020. This brought cumulative exports for the first seven months of the current October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year to 538,670 bags, down 2.7% from the 553,526 bags exported in the same period of the previous coffee year. Coffee exports in January- April totalled 450,000 bags, down 8.6% from 492,360 bags.
  • Honduras: Honduran Coffee Institute (Ihcafé), reduced by 8.3% Honduran coffee shipment estimates, down from 5.6% million bags in the latest estimate to 5.13 million. The institute claims that hurricanes that have plagued the region in the last year and heavy rains have raised the level of moisture in the crops, which has stimulated the propagation of rust disease in production.
  • Vietnam: The latest data from the Vietnam Customs Authority showed that the country’s coffee exports totaled 2.202 million bags in April, down 22.1% from the same month last year. This brought cumulative exports for the first four months of the 2021 calendar year to 9.749 million bags, 14.3% lower than the first four months of 2020.
  • Japan: The latest data from the All Japan Coffee Association showed that green coffee stocks totaled 171,084 metric tons (2.85 million 60 kg bags) at the end of February. This represents a 0.19% increase from the previous month when 170,756 tons were reported.

image-20210517180535-1

  • GCA: Coffee stocks in warehouses in all ports of the United States totaled 5,762,567 bags for the month ending April 30, which is 1.46% or 83,405 bags higher than the previous month and 12% or 755,300 bags lower from April 2020. The five-year average for April is 6,449,440 bags. April stocks have risen an average of 229,451 bags over the last five years.

image-20210517180650-3

  • ICE Certified Stocks: Arabica stocks were reported at 2.02 million bags as of May 17th, up 12.8% from the same time last year. Robusta stocks were up 22% year on year at 2.66 million bags.

 

ICE Certified Arabica Stocks

 

image-20210517180717-4

ICE Certified Robusta Stocks

image-20210517180741-5

  • Brazil:
  • Certified stocks: As of May 17th, Brazilian coffee stocks totaled 1,074,656 bags (53.2%) whereas Honduras coffee totaled 758,972 bags (37.6%).
  • CeCafe: The latest data from the Brazil Coffee Export Association (CeCafe) showed that Brazil exported 3.04 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in April, down 7.1% from the 3.27 million 60-kg bags exported during the same month last year. Arabica exports totaled 2.7 million 60-kg bags, down 8.3% from the 2.9 million 60-kg bags exported in April 2020. Robusta exports totaled 331,140 60-kg bags, up 4.6% from the 316,695 60-kg bags exported in the same month last year.

Brazilian Exports - Cecafe (thousand bags)

image-20210517180826-8

 

image-20210517180841-9 Weather update:

image-20210517180855-10

ENSO

NOAA: The La Niña weather phenomenon, which brought torrential rains in many coffee-producing nations like Colombia has ended, according to the National Weather Service. The ENSO-neutral is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer with a 67% chance in June-August 2021. During April, the tropical Pacific Ocean returned to ENSO-neutral conditions as the coupling between the atmosphere and ocean weakened. Sea surface temperatures were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean in the past month. The La Niña chances are around 50-55% during the late fall and winter, which is in alignment with forecasts from the NCEP Climate Forecast System and North American Multi-model Ensemble. However, there is typically large uncertainty with forecasts made in the spring, so confidence in ENSO neutral for the coming seasons is highest La Niña has ended.

image-20210517180908-11

BRAZIL

It rained again over the south of Minas Gerais over the weekend. On Saturday, according to Cooxupé, the accumulated amount reached 12mm in Alfenas, 11mm in Campestre and 15mm in Nova Resende. Much of the week will be in dry weather. The precipitation will return only from Friday to the northeast of Paraná through the passage of a new cold front. Over the weekend, rain will also reach São Paulo. The accumulated in three days will be low, below 10mm in both states.

 

Looking Ahead:

image-20210517180926-12 Date

image-20210517180938-13 ICE

image-20210517180951-14Macro

image-20210517181000-15 Fundamental

Tuesday, May 18

ICE May Arabica last trading day

EU GDP (Q1)

US Building permits

 

Wednesday, May 19

 

UK Inflation data

      PPI

EU Inflation data

US FOMC minutes

 CEPEA weekly coffee update

Thursday, May 20

 

UK Industrial Trends Orders

US Jobless claims

      Leading Economic Index (LEI)

 

Friday, May 21

 

UK Markit manufacturing / services /
      composite PMI

      Retail sales

EU Markit manufacturing / services /
      composite PMI

      Consumer confidence flash

US Markit manufacturing / services /
      composite PMI

      Existing home sales

CN basis report

Monday, May 24

ICE May Robusta last trading day

Brazil BCB focus market readout

 

 

Tuesday, May 25

 

Brazil FGV consumer confidene

           Mid-month inflation (IPCA-15)

US CB Consumer confidence

      New home sales

      S&P/Case-Schiller home price index

     

Conab Estimates

BOM ENSO update

Wednesday, May 26

 

 China Industrial Profit

CEPEA weekly coffee update

Thursday, May 27

 

EU Business Climate

US GDP (Q1)

      Durable goods orders

      Pending home sales

 

Friday, May 28

 

EU Consumer confidence/ Industrial sentiment/ Services sentiment

US Goods trade balance

      Michigan consumer sentiment

      PCE

Brazil IGP-M inflation index

CN basis report

Monday, May 31

 

US Holiday: Memorial day

UK Bank holiday

Brazil Budget balance

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Vietnam coffee exports (+/- 3 days)

Tuesday, June 1

 

EU Manufacturing PMI

      Inflation (CPI)

US Manufacturing PMI

Brazil GDP (Q1)

           PPI

 

Wednesday, June 2

 

EU PPI

Brazil Industrial Production

           IPC-Fipe Inflation index

US ADP employment change

China Caixin services PMI

CEPEA weekly coffee update

 

CN monthly reports

  • Planning Ahead in May

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

Brazil holiday: Corpus Christi

4

 

5

 

6

 

7

 

 

8

 

9

 

10

NOAA ENSO update

IBGE Crop Update

 

11

 

12

 

13

14

15

GCA May stocks

 

16

17

 

 

 

  • Coffee

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