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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

CoffeeNetwork Bi Weekly Coffee Report 

March 1-15

image-20200803134820-1 CoffeeNetwork Highlights​​​​​​:

  • ICO: World coffee exports amounted to 10.21 million bags in January 2021, down 3.6% compared with 10.59 million in January 2020.
  • Rabobank: Rabobank sees a 2.6 million bag deficit for the 2021-2022 crop year, with 164.5 million bags total production and demand recovering to 167.1 million bags. This is following the 2020-2021 crop year of a 10.5 million bag surplus with 174.5 million bags of production and demand of just 164 million bags.
  • Hondruas: Data from the Coffee Exporters Association of Honduras (ADECAFEH) coffee exports as of February 28th totaled 1.5 million bag, down 27% or 570,000 bags, year on year. Accumulated sales totaled 2.3 million bags, down 22% of 648,000 bags, year on year.
  • Costa Rica: the country exported 77,693 bags of coffee in February, down 21.5% from the 99,016 bags exported in February 2020. This brought cumulative exports for the first five months of the current October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year to 127,653 bags, 28.2% lower than the 177,820 bags exported in the first five months of the previous coffee year.
  • ICE Certified Stocks: Arabica stocks were reported at 1.72 million bags as of March 1st, down 19.6% from the same time last year. Robusta stocks were down 4.4% year on year at 2.52 million bags.

ICE Certified Arabica Stocks

 

image-20210301150736-1

ICE Certified Robusta Stocks

 

image-20210301150754-2

 

 

Brazil:

  • Cooabriel: Despite some attacks of mealybug, new crop is developing well. Cooabriel should receive 1.8 million bags for 21-22, up 20% from the previous crop year.
  • Rabobank: Downwardly revised their forecast for Brazil’s 2021-2022 coffee crop to 56.2 million bags, from their previous estimate of 57.4 million bags. The reduction is due to a new forecast for Arabica coffee, which has been lowered to 36 million bags, compared to the previous estimate of 37.2 million bags due to “lackluster rains” after the first week of December.

 

image-20210216142239-7 Weather Update:

image-20200803135302-7

ENSO

BOM: In terms of typical indicators of La Niña, this event has peaked. Climate model outlooks indicate the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will return to neutral during northern hemisphere Spring, that is, neither La Niña nor El Niño.

NOAA: The forecaster consensus is a transition to ENSO-neutral during Spring and then a continuation at least through the Northern Hemisphere summer. In part, due to the inherent uncertainty in predictions made at this time of year, the forecast for the fall remains split (50%) between La Niña and the combination of the other two possibilities (El Niño and Neutral). There is a 60% chance of a transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2021.

image-20200803135302-8

BRAZIL

Good rainfall is forecast for most of the coffee belt, with heavier than average rainfall in some areas bringing some delays regarding shipping from Brazil’s Santos Port.

 

Looking Ahead:

image-20210301150912-3 Date

image-20210301150912-4 ICE

image-20210301150912-5Macro

image-20210301150912-6 Fundamental

Tuesday, March 2

 

EU Inflation data

China Caixin services/composite PMI

BOM ENSO update

Wednesday, March 3

 

EU Markit services/composite PMI

       PPI

Brazil GDP

           Markit services/composite PMI

US ADP employment change

      Markit services/composite PMI

      ISM non manufacturing

NCA virtual convention (March 3-5)

 

CEPEA weekly coffee report

Thursday, March 4

 

EU Unemployment rate

       Retail sales

US Challenger job cuts

       Jobless claims

Colombia export data (+/- 3 days)

Friday, March 5

 

Brazil Industrial production

US Non farm payrolls

      Balance of trade

      Unemployment rate

CN basis report

Monday, March 8

 

Brazil BCB focus market readout

US Wholesale inventories

       Consumer inflation expectations

 

Tuesday, March 9

 

EU GDP

       Employment change

China Inflation data

           PPI

CeCafe export data (+/- 3 days)

Wednesday, March 10

 

Brazil Business confidence

US Inflation data

CEPEA weekly coffee report

Thursday, March 11

 

Brazil Inflation data

EU ECB interest rate decision

US Jobless claims

      JOLTS job openings

NOAA ENSO Update

 

IBGE Brazil coffee crop update

Friday, March 12

 

UK Balance of trade

       GDP

       Goods trade balance

       Manufacturing/
       industrial production

EU Industrial production

Brazil Retail sales

US PPI

      Michigan consumer expectations

CN basis report

Monday, March 15

 

Brazil BCB focus market readout

GCA stocks

 

Planning Ahead in March:

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

 

 

 

16

 

17

 

18

 

19

ICE March Arabica last trading day

20

 

21

 

22

Colombia closed for holiday

23

 

24

 

25

ICE March Robusta last trading day

26

 

27

28

29

30

31

 

 

 

  • Coffee

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