CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Brazil is expected to produce and export significantly more coffee in 2026/27, but an increasingly urgent question is emerging across the global coffee trade: can the country's logistics infrastructure keep pace?
While coffee futures have recently been driven by shifting forecasts for Brazilian production, harvest delays, and declining ICE-certified stocks, exporters are warning that a less visible issue may have an equally important impact on global supply availability. At the center of the debate is the Port of Santos, Brazil's primary coffee export gateway, where industry groups say years of congestion, limited capacity, and delayed infrastructure investments continue to constrain the movement of containerized cargo.
The concern comes at a critical moment. Cecafé projects Brazil will export approximately 45 million 60-kilogram bags during the 2026/27 crop year, a 17% increase from the 38.46 million bags shipped in 2025/26. At the same time, USDA and private analysts including StoneX are forecasting record global coffee production, largely driven by larger crops in Brazil and Vietnam.
Yet many exporters argue that production is no longer the primary challenge.
"The market may be looking at a production surplus, but exporters are increasingly dealing with a logistics deficit," one Brazilian trade source told CoffeeNetwork.
The strongest evidence comes from Cecafé's own logistics survey. According to the organization, Brazilian coffee exporters incurred R$66.1 million in additional logistics costs during 2025 due to port bottlenecks, vessel delays, cargo rollovers, storage expenses, container detention charges, and other operational disruptions. The survey found that, on average, 55% of scheduled vessels experienced delays or schedule changes each month.
Those disruptions prevented the shipment of approximately 1,824 containers per month, equivalent to roughly 602,000 bags of coffee, according to Cecafé. The organization estimated the resulting loss in potential export revenue at approximately R$14.67 billion over the course of the year.
The bottlenecks were attributed to truck queues, terminal congestion, berth shortages, cargo rollovers, and frequent vessel schedule changes.
Coffee exporters argue that headline cargo statistics often mask the severity of those challenges.
"Aggregate foreign trade results do not reflect the reality of those who need to ship containerized cargo. Coffee, sugar, cotton and other products continue to face delays, rollovers and a lack of capacity at ports," said Eduardo Heron, Cecafé's technical director.
The challenges are particularly significant because Santos accounted for 78.7% of Brazil's coffee exports in 2025, making the port by far the industry's most important export hub. [
Tecon Santos 10 Becomes a Strategic Issue for Coffe
Exporters increasingly view the proposed Tecon Santos 10 container terminal expansion as one of the most important infrastructure projects for Brazil's coffee sector.
Earlier this month, Cecafé criticized Brazil's National Waterway Transportation Agency (ANTAQ) for maintaining restrictions on participation in the terminal's auction process despite recommendations from the federal government favoring broader participation. The organization warned that the proposed structure increases the risk of legal disputes and could further delay a project that has already been discussed for more than a decade.
According to Cecafé, the issue goes beyond competition policy and directly affects Brazil's ability to expand export capacity.
The association argues that containerized cargo at Santos has operated for years under capacity limitations, operational congestion, and elevated logistics costs. Additional delays to expansion projects could prolong those conditions just as Brazil prepares to move significantly larger agricultural export volumes.
"Cargo users cannot continue to wait indefinitely," Heron said. "The risk of judicialization resulting from restrictions without clear technical grounds generates delays, drives away investments and postpones indispensable solutions for the competitiveness of Brazilian foreign trade."
Heron also warned that logistics inefficiencies eventually ripple throughout the supply chain.
"The increase in logistics costs will inevitably continue to be reflected in the competitiveness of exports and in the final prices of the products consumed by the population," he said.
The timing of the debate is particularly noteworthy because Brazil's export sector is preparing for a substantial recovery in shipments.
Cecafé expects exports to rise 17% in 2026/27 despite weather-related disruptions that have slowed harvesting in parts of Minas Gerais, Cerrado Mineiro, and São Paulo's Mogiana region. Above-average rainfall has delayed fieldwork and raised concerns about quality losses from fallen cherries.
At the same time, physical coffee markets remain surprisingly tight. Recent reports point to low ICE-certified inventories, delayed harvest activity, and Santos logistics constraints as factors helping support nearby arabica values despite projections for a larger global crop. Some market participants argue that availability remains constrained not because coffee is unavailable, but because coffee is struggling to move efficiently through the supply chain.
A crop in the field does not alleviate tightness in consuming countries until it is harvested, processed, containerized, transported to port, loaded onto a vessel, and delivered to buyers. Any disruption along that chain can extend nearby supply concerns even when overall production is increasing.
Cecafé President Márcio Ferreira recently highlighted the economic consequences of those logistics challenges when discussing Brazil's 2025/26 export performance.
"The average export price in the last crop year, at $379.48 per bag, was the highest in history and 17.4% above the previous record. That would have resulted in record export revenue had it not been for logistical bottlenecks that prevented the shipment of hundreds of thousands of bags," Ferreira said.
That statement may be one of the clearest indications yet that logistics have become a fundamental market variable rather than merely an operational concern.
As Brazil moves toward what could be one of its largest export programs in recent years, exporters are increasingly warning that infrastructure constraints could determine how quickly additional coffee reaches world markets. For traders, roasters, and importers, that means Santos may become just as important to coffee prices as weather in Minas Gerais or crop forecasts from Brasília.
The global market may be preparing for a larger supply of coffee. The challenge now is ensuring that supply can actually leave the dock.
Alexis Rubinstein
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