Brazil's cotton growers are preparing to expand planted area for the 2027 season, encouraged by a recovery in international cotton prices that has made the fiber more competitive against rival crops. A larger Brazilian cotton area is unlikely to deliver a larger crop, because El Niño threatens yields and narrows the short window in which cotton is planted after the soybean harvest. Dryness across the Center-West, the country's main cotton region, is the central risk to production. For commercial buyers and merchants, Brazil's cotton supply looks set to contract for a second consecutive year even as its acreage grows.
Raphael Bulascoschi, Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX Brazil, tracks grain, oilseed and soft commodity markets. His coverage includes how Brazilian agricultural production and policy shape domestic and global markets, the interplay between the soybean harvest, El Niño and Brazil's cotton crop.
Key Themes
Brazil's cotton planted area is projected to rise 4.4% for the 2027 season.
El Niño raises the risk of dryness across the Center-West, Brazil's main cotton region, threatening 2027 yields.
Brazil is projected to remain the leading global cotton exporter in 2027 despite production falling for a second year.
Cotton Planting Window Narrows as Soybean Harvest Runs Late
Brazil's cotton planting window depends directly on the timing of the soybean harvest, because the crop goes into the ground immediately after soybeans are cleared from the field. "Most of Brazil's cotton is planted right after the harvest of the soybean crop", Bulascoschi said, noting that a delay in the soybean cycle carries over into cotton. In an El Niño year, that sequence becomes a liability, because the same dryness that slows soybean development can push the cotton window later and into hotter, drier conditions. Consequently, growers risk seeding into a shorter window that caps yield potential before the crop is fully established.
Brazil Cotton Output Falls Even as Planted Area Grows
Brazil's cotton production is projected to fall to about 3.83 million metric tons in 2027, roughly 1.5% below the current crop, even though planted area is expanding by 4.4%. The gap traces back to yields, with a base case near 1.85 metric tons per hectare that dryness in an El Niño year could erode further, offsetting the extra acreage. Even with a smaller crop, Brazil is set to keep its position atop the global cotton trade, with projected shipments around 3.05 million metric tons. According to Bulascoschi, "that would still be the second largest volume for exports on record, which speaks to the resilience of Brazil's export sector".
Frequently Asked Questions
Which part of Brazil is most exposed to El Niño dryness for cotton?
The Center-West is Brazil's main cotton growing region, and it is where El Niño raises the risk of dryness during crop development. Because rainfall there drives both soybean timing and cotton yields, the region carries the greatest exposure in an El Niño year.
How much cotton is Brazil expected to export in 2027?
Brazil's cotton exports are projected at around 3.05 million metric tons in 2027, down about 7.6% from the 3.3 million metric tons expected for 2026. Even at that lower level, Bulascoschi notes it would rank as the second largest export volume on record.
Why is Brazil expanding cotton area if production is set to fall?
A recovery in international cotton prices has made cotton more competitive against other crops, encouraging Brazilian growers to plant more. The larger area does not lift output because El Niño threatens yields, leaving production lower even with expanded acreage.
Make Cotton Insights Your Competitive Advantage
Access live prices, supply and demand data, and actionable market commentary focused on the Cotton and Ethanol sector. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and see how our Cotton and Ethanol insights can elevate your strategy.
--- Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX Media
--- Expert: Raphael Bulascoschi, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst
Cotton
StoneX TV content is created, produced, and distributed solely by StoneX Media Ltd (“StoneX TV”) and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. StoneX TV does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice and does not make any recommendation or endorsement of any investment strategy, transaction, or financial instrument. Nothing in this content constitutes, or should be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, including securities, futures, derivatives, digital assets, foreign exchange products, or CFDs. This content does not constitute an offer, invitation, or solicitation to engage in any investment activity. The information presented is general in nature and is not tailored to the financial situation, investment objectives, or risk tolerance of any specific person. You should not rely on this content as a substitute for independent professional advice. Investing and trading in financial instruments involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any views or opinions expressed are those of the presenter at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Such views may not necessarily reflect those of StoneX Media Ltd or its affiliates. StoneX Media Ltd and its affiliates, including StoneX Group Inc., may from time to time have positions in, or engage in transactions involving, the financial instruments referenced. This content may include general market commentary and opinion. It does not constitute independent investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. StoneX Media Ltd is not authorised or regulated to provide investment services and does not act in a fiduciary capacity. StoneX Media Ltd is incorporated in Ireland and operates in accordance with applicable Irish law. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is a separate legal entity from other subsidiaries within the StoneX Group, which may be regulated in various jurisdictions. StoneX Media Ltd does not act on behalf of, or provide services for, any regulated affiliate. This content is not directed at, and may not be distributed to, any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local laws or regulations. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or technical data may be made available upon reasonable request, where applicable.
Discover more insights
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
