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Canada Know-Risk Market Outlook | Canola Turns Bearish

By: Craig Turner, Senior Risk Management Consultant

Grains & Oilseeds | Canola is turning bearish on the charts after breaking through it's upward channel (see chart below).  Canola tends to hit a seasonal high by mid June and then decline through September.  Minor support comes in at $730 and major support at $700.

The weather for N. America remains conducive for crop development.  The strengthening of El Nino is a big concern for the EU, Ukraine and Russia.  El Nino brings hot and dry weather to those regions, and has the potential to reduce wheat and corn production.  Over the next couple of weeks we'll be looking at the Major Exporter stock estimates for the 2026-27 marketing year. 

A lot of risk premium has come out of corn and wheat.  Not so much with soybeans and especially canola.  Expected Chinese demand and growing renewable biodiesel production is keeping oilseeds at a premium to grains.  Corn looks to be a value on breaks.  Wheat can go either way depending on how El Nino impacts European production.  Soybeans and canola are the most at risk to crash IF the demand does not materialize.

November Canola

image-20260616121001-2

 

Craig Turner
Office: 312-706-7610
Twitter: @CornWheatSoy
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