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Canada Know-Risk Market Outlook | Dec Futures First Notice Day Tomorrow

By: StoneX Grains Team- Canada, StoneX Grains Team- Canada

Canada Know-Risk Market Outlook
 
Craig Turner
Office: 312-706-7610
Twitter: @Turners_Take
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Grains & Oilseeds |  First notice day (FND) is tomorrow for all wheat contracts, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn.  Delivery notification start tonight, which we expect to be minimal.
Traders are still keeping an eye on C. and N. Brazilian weather but it is less threatening than it was a few weeks ago.  There is also some concern about 2nd crop corn acres not being planted in some parts of Brazil due to drought in the North and planting delays/replanting for first crop soybeans.  
For now the trade is looking at an oversupplied corn market with not enough demand bring ending stocks under 2 billion.  Dec corn hit a low of $4.50 overnight.  
Canola is a concern.  Canada needs better export demand.  If demand stays at the current pace we could see exports come down 1 to 2 MMT from Stats Canada exports.  In that case canola would need to rely on tightness in the soybean market to help keep canola elevated.
Brazilian consultancy MB Agro yesterday cut their 2023/24 soybean estimate by an even 10 MMT, now down to 155 MMT; their export potential for the season was reduced from 100 to 96 MMT this month. Second-crop corn output was pegged at 90 MMT, below the 91.2 MMT Conab figure, with exports estimated at 40 MMT, down from 50+ MMT last season.   If true, this could be supportive for corn, soybeans, and canola but it important to note this is just one private analyst.  The US and Canada both had challenging growing conditions in 2023 and yields were better than expected during harvest.  
Finally, Stats Canada will released their crop production report on Monday.  The trade is looking for all wheat output for 2023 at 31.1 MMT, up from 29.8 MMT in September, with spring wheat at 24.0 MMT, up from 22.6 MMT previously. Canola production of 18.3 MMT would be up from 17.4 MMT in Sept, with corn seen at 15.0 MMT and soybeans at 6.8 MMT (both up slightly versus September). 
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