Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said it is “now or never” to finalize the long-delayed EU-Mercosur trade deal, underscoring a sense of urgency as negotiations reach a critical moment. His comments reflect Brazil’s push to lock in the agreement amid growing political resistance within parts of the European Union, particularly from countries concerned about agricultural competition and environmental standards. The statement adds pressure on EU leaders to decide whether to move forward with the pact or risk letting it collapse after years of negotiations.
Brazil has opened more than 500 new foreign markets for agricultural products between 2023 and 2025, according to President Lula, significantly expanding its global export footprint. These newly opened markets have already generated about $3.4 billion in exports, with the government estimating long-term potential of over $37.5 billion annually across more than 80 countries. The expansion, led by Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture with support from ApexBrasil and other ministries, spans products including meat, cotton, fruit, and fish, underscoring Brazil’s growing production capacity and diplomatic push to deepen global ag trade—an increasingly competitive backdrop for U.S. and other exporters.
U.S. ethanol production surged to a new all-time high of 1.131 million barrels per day in the week ending Dec. 12, exceeding expectations and surpassing the prior record set in late November, according to the EIA. Despite the higher run rate, ethanol inventories fell by 157,000 barrels to 22.35 million barrels, a 0.7% weekly draw and slightly below analyst forecasts, indicating demand kept pace with production. The stock decline was driven mainly by draws in the Midwest and Gulf Coast, while the East Coast saw a modest build. The combination of record production and falling inventories underscores strong blending demand and supports near-term corn usage, even as broader energy prices and policy uncertainty continue to cap ethanol margins.
General Mills said financially strained consumers are increasingly buying more food only when it is on sale, signaling rising price sensitivity rather than stronger underlying demand. The company lowered prices across about two-thirds of its North American retail portfolio and saw volumes rise where prices were cut, but organic revenue still declined 1% in the fiscal second quarter, albeit better than expected. Management emphasized that the behavior reflects stressed households stretching dollars, not heavier promotions, reinforcing the view that pricing power in packaged foods is weakening even as baseline demand for staples remains intact.
Corn
S 1500 g 440 c 7 5/8
B 250 z 450 p 25 5/8
B 1000 h 455 c 5 3/8
B 1500 f 435 p 1 ¼ to 1 3/8
B 1000 g 450 c 4 ¼ to 4 3/8
B 2000 w2 442 c 1 ¼ to 1 5/8
B 700 h 430 p 6
B 200 hk -10 cso p 3/4
B 500 h 420 p 3 1/8 to 3 3/8
S 100 g 430 p 4 to 3 1/2
S 300 w1 440 straddles 8 1/4
B 3000 f 450 c 5/8 to 3/4
S 200 k 420 p 5 1/4
S 1000 h 450 c 6 3/8
S 500 f 440/425 put spread 3 ¾ vs 439 1/4
B 200 n 470 c 16 3/8
B 1000 h 460 c 4 1/8
B 200 n 450/410 ps 15 ¼ vs 453
S 200 n 460/400 ps 22 7/8 vs 452 3/4
S 150 h 445 straddles 22 1/2
S 500 k 500 c 3 3/8
B 1000 f 445 p 8 1/8 vs 437 1/4
B 2000 f 430 p ½ to 3/4
S 100 n 450/420 ps 12 5/8 vs 453
S 2000 f 440 p 4 ¼ to 3 5/8
S 1000 g 435 p 7 1/8 to 6 5/8
S 1000 h 450 c 6 ½ to 6 1/8
B 1000 f 445/452 cs 5/8 to 3/4
B 400 h 440/445 cs 1 1/4
S 1000 f 440 p 4 7/8 to 3 1/2
S 500 h 450/480/510 call fly 3 7/8
B 1600 h 435/450 cs 5 7/8 to 6
On a block
B 2000 g 435/420 ps vs s f 437 p 2 ½ db
Beans
B 400 k 1050 c 29 to 29 1/8
B 500 f 1060 p 8 7/8
B 1000 k 1100 c 25 ½ to 26 5/8
S 1000 h 1060 p 21 1/8 to 19 7/8
B 600 h 1100 c 13 1/8
B 2000 n 1060/1020 ps vs s 1000 n 980 p 21 3/8 db
B 300 n 1120 c 32 ¾ to 33 7/8
B 200 h 1070 straddles 49 3/4
B 200 k 1100/1200 cs 19 ¼ vs 1079
B 500 h 1100/1150 cs 8 7/8 vs 1070 1/2
S 250 h 1120 c 9 vs 1069 1/4
S 1000 w1 1050p/1080c strangles 10 1/4
S 200 n 1250 c vs b 200 sd n 1200 c collecting 1
S 1000 f 1060 p 10 3/8 vs 9 ¾
B 300 h 1150 c 4 7/8
S 1750 w3 1070/1060 ps 7 1/2
S 600 f 1060 p 9 ¾
S 1000 h 1080/1060 ps 10 ¾ vs 1069 1/2
B 1000 f 1100 c ¾ to 7/8
B 1000 w1 1040 p 2 to 2 3/8
S 1000 f 1040 p 2 1/2
B 500 f 1080/1060 ps 14 1/4
On a block
S 300 h 1100/1050 ps 27 3/4
S 175 n 1000p/1200c strangles 24 1/4
Soymeal
B 250 f 300 p 5.00
S 2500 z 290/295/340/345 iron condors at 3.00
S 100 n 300 p 9.65
B 500 w3 295 p .60
B 500 f 305 c .85
B 500 f 310 c .35
S 700 h 300 p 7.70 to 7.65
Bean oil
B 250 n 40 p .350
B 500 f 48 p .525 to .590
B 500 f 4750 p .370 to .455
B 200 f 49 p 1.090 to 1.145
B 800 g 48 p 1/170
B 650 k 5250/60 cs and k 4750 p 3.200 to 3.220 db
B 300 k 5250/60 cs 1.160
S 300 f 48 p .700 to .605
S 400 f 4850 c .350 to .320
S 400 k 51 c 1.510 to 1.470
B 100 h 50/55 cs 1.020
Wheat
S 1500 h 525 p 29
B 350 n 1500 c 1/2
B 1500 h 500 p 14 to 14 1/4
B 500 w3 504 p 2 3/4
B 300 h27 585/740 cs vs s 515 p 11 db vs 576
S 400 h 520/550 cs 6 3/4
S 200 g 525 c 5 7/8
B 300 f 520 c vs s 600 f 530 c 3/8 db
S 100 f 520 p 12 ¼ vs 516 1/2
B 100 g 500 p vs s 200 g 490 p 1 ¼ cr
On a block
B 700 h 510 c 15 ¼ vs 506 1/2
B 300 h 540 c 7 ¼ vs 505 3/4
Kc wheat
S 1000 h 460/495/530/590 iron condors at 17 1/4
B 400 f 510/495 ps vs s g 510/495 ps 1 ½ cr
B 150 k 650 c 4 1/8
B 400 g 520 c 8 vs 507 1/2
S 150 w1 530 c 1 1/2
Hogs
Bought 250 Feb 83/88 call spreads v. 78 puts paid 1.15
Sold 300 May 94 puts @ 5.70 down to 5.50
Sold 225 April 80 puts @ 1.325
Bought 250 Aug 102 puts paid 6.675 up to 6.825
Bought 200 Feb 84/78 put spread paid 1.975
Bought 200 July 102 puts paid 5.975 up to 6.00
Sold 400 April 100 calls @ .80
Bought 100 April 68 puts paid .30
Bought 100 Feb 81/85 strangle paid 3.475
Sold 200 Oct 88 calls @ 4.5750 down to 4.50
Bought 400 Oct 86 puts paid 6.40
Sold 300 Feb 76/70 put spread 1x2 @ .15
Live Cattle
Bought 300 Dec26 76/66 put spreads paid 3.65
Sold 200 Feb 224/230 call spreads @ 3.975 down to 3.95
Sold 300 Feb 208 puts @ .80
Sold 400 Feb 230 puts @ 5.10 down to 5.05
Bought June 200 puts paid 3.60
Bought 300 April 240 calls paid 4.10 up to 4.15
Bought 250 Jan 225 calls paid 6.750
sources:
news bloomberg
option data globex
vol graphs bloomberg
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