CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

Italy’s foreign minister said the long-running EU–Mercosur trade deal offers “enormous benefits,” reaffirming Rome’s support as Brussels pushes to revive an agreement that has stalled in the past. He said Italy has consistently backed the deal, while stressing the need to address legitimate concerns from the agricultural sector through safeguards to protect vulnerable producers. The agreement, more than 25 years in the making, would create the world’s largest free-trade area, boosting trade between the EU and Mercosur countries Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. However, resistance remains among European farmers worried about competition from cheaper South American imports, and Italy and France previously sought a delay. The EU has attempted to ease opposition by proposing budget measures to support farmers, with member states expected to vote on the text shortly.

 

The Trump administration rolled out new U.S. dietary guidelines alongside an updated federal food pyramid, signaling a clear shift in nutrition policy toward higher protein consumption and stricter limits on added sugar. The guidance emphasizes whole foods and higher-quality protein sources while identifying sugar as a key driver of obesity and chronic disease, reinforcing a broader push to curb sugar intake across American diets. The White House promoted the new pyramid publicly as part of this messaging reset, aligning with policy priorities championed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The changes are expected to influence school meals, federal nutrition programs, and food labeling and formulation, with potential ripple effects across agriculture, food manufacturing, and public health debates.

 

Cal-Maine Foods, the largest egg producer in the United States, said bird flu remains an “extremely strong” threat, underscoring ongoing risks to poultry supply both domestically and globally. Nearly 500 outbreaks were reported across 26 countries in October and November, highlighting the broad global presence of the virus. In the U.S., the outbreak that began in 2022 has affected more than 185 million birds across over 900 commercial operations, with new detections continuing in commercial flocks. Despite reporting earnings that topped expectations, Cal-Maine’s shares fell, reflecting investor’s concern that persistent bird flu disruptions will continue to pressure supply, keep egg prices elevated, and create uncertainty for producers.

Mexico announced a zero-tariff import quota for Brazilian meat, a move that could increase Brazilian exports into the Mexican market and heighten competition for other suppliers. The decision comes amid broader efforts by Mexico to manage food prices and diversify sourcing while navigating ongoing global tariff pressures. By allowing a set volume of Brazilian meat to enter duty-free, the policy may put near-term pressure on regional meat markets and trade flows, particularly for U.S. exporters that have traditionally supplied Mexico, while reinforcing Brazil’s growing role as a low-cost protein supplier in global trade.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to visit China next week in an effort to normalize relations and reduce Canada’s reliance on the United States for trade, with discussions expected to focus on trade, energy, agriculture, and international security. The trip, scheduled for January 13–17, comes as Canada’s economy faces pressure from U.S. tariffs on key sectors and growing uncertainty ahead of the USMCA review, prompting Ottawa to seek alternative sources of growth. China is Canada’s second-largest trading partner, with roughly $75 billion in annual two-way trade, and Carney has outlined a longer-term goal of doubling exports to non-U.S. markets within a decade. The visit also reflects ongoing attempts to reset strained bilateral ties after several years of tension, with the possibility of high-level talks, though no formal meeting with China’s leadership has been confirmed.

The November JOLTS report points to a gradually cooling U.S. labor market, with job openings falling to about 7.1 million from nearly 7.5 million in October and the openings rate declining to 4.3%. Hiring also slowed, as new hires dropped to roughly 5.1 million and the hiring rate slipped to 3.2%. On the more constructive side, layoffs did not increase, with involuntary separations easing to about 1.7 million, while the quits rate ticked up slightly to 2.0%, suggesting workers still have some confidence in job mobility. Overall, the data reinforce a narrative of easing labor demand without a sharp deterioration in employment conditions ahead of the December jobs report.

The latest U.S. DOE ethanol data show a clearly softer near-term demand picture. Total ethanol stocks rose by 708 kb to 23.65 million barrels, a 3.1% weekly increase, despite inventories still running 2.1% below last year, with the Midwest accounting for most of the build. Ethanol production eased by 22 kbd to 1.098 mbd, down 2.0% on the week, reflecting some pullback by plants as margins tighten. The demand side was the main drag, with blender net inputs falling sharply by 117 kbd to 771 kbd, a 13.2% weekly decline, led by sizable pullbacks across the Midwest, Gulf Coast, and East Coast. Regionally, stock builds were concentrated in PADDs 2 and 3, while the West Coast saw a small draw. Overall, the report underscores a winter slowdown in gasoline demand translating into weaker blending and inventory builds, reinforcing a short-term bearish tone for ethanol until demand or exports improve.

U.S. economic data showed a notably stronger tone in December, led by the ISM services sector. The services PMI rose to 54.4, beating all estimates and marking the fastest pace of expansion in over a year, with gains in new orders, employment, and business activity. The ISM new orders index jumped to 57.9 from 52.9, while the employment index rebounded to 52.0 from 48.9, signaling improving labor demand. Price pressures eased modestly, with the ISM prices index slipping to 64.3, a nine-month low but still elevated. In manufacturing-linked data, October factory orders declined 1.3% month over month, though durable goods excluding transportation edged up 0.1%. Canada’s December Ivey PMI came in at 51.9, indicating modest expansion. Overall, the data point to reaccelerating U.S. services activity with firm demand and employment, even as price pressures cool slightly and manufacturing remains mixed.

Cal-Maine Foods reported a sharp year-over-year decline in fiscal second-quarter results due to significantly lower egg prices. Net income fell 52% from a year earlier to $2.13 per share for the quarter ended Nov. 29, while sales declined 19% to $769.5 million, missing analyst expectations. Shell egg sales, which account for about 84% of total revenue, dropped 28%, driven by a 41% plunge in conventional egg sales, though specialty eggs were relatively resilient. Management said diversification efforts and a favorable product mix helped support performance despite pricing pressure, and prepared foods revenue rose from a year earlier, even as it slipped sequentially due to short-term production issues. Shares edged higher in premarket trading, reflecting investor confidence in longer-term earnings durability as the business mix continues to evolve.

Corn

B 5000 w2 450 c 4 ¾ to 5

S 1350 n 425p/500c strangle vs 459 ½ and 1350 z 420p/520c strangles vs 463 ½ against b 2700 u 415p/520c strangles vs 452 ½ paying 2

S 1100 g 440p/450c strangles 9 ¼ to 9

B 500 h 440 straddles vs s g 440 straddles 6 1/4

B 500 h 440/420 ps and 500 h 455/485 cs 10 ¾ db

S 300 k 420 p 3 5/8 

B 3000 u 410/400 ps 2 5/8 

B 200 j 475 c 6 to 6 1/8

S 200 j 500 c 2 1/4

B 1000 h 430 p 3 7/8 

B 1000 w2 460 c vs s 500 w2 450 straddles 9 ¾ cr

B 300 k 430/410 ps 4 1/4

B 500 h 455 c 6 1/8 

B 200 nu +20 cso c 5

B 100 nz -10 p cso p 7 1/4

B 200 g 435p/455c strangles 6

B 2000 g 430 p 1 1/2

S 500 g 445 c 7 1/4

B 500 h 445/420 ps vs s 480 c 6 5/8 db vs 445 1/4

S 2000 h 440 p 7 1/4

B 1000 h 430 p 3 3/4

B 500 h 435 p 5 ¼ to 5 1/2

B 900 k 455/500 cs vs s 435 p 3 

B 750 g 430 p 1 1/2

B 1000 g 445 c 6 7/8 to 7 3/8

 

Beans 

B 1000 x 1300 c 10 ½ 

S 1000 g 1030 p 2 1/2

B 1000 h 1040 p 10 3/8 

S 500 g 1040 p 4 1/8 

S 1000 k 1070 p 29 ¼ to 27 7/8 

B 700 x 940p/1260c strangles 21 ½ vs 1075

S 500 k 1100/1120/1200/1220 call condors 5 1/8

B 250 h 1020/990 ps 3 1/4

S 500 k 1080 c vs b 1000 k 1140 c 6 ¾ vs 1078

B 1650 h 1050/1070 cs 10 3/4

S 100 k 1110/1160 cs 10 3/4

B 300 h 1050 p 12 5/8 to 13 1/4

 

On a block

B 100 h27 1140 c 37 ½ vs 1085 1/4

 

Soymeal

B 300 n 310/300 ps 4.75

B 100 h 300, 295 and 290 puts paying 10.65

S 500 h 500 p 5.40 cs 303.8

S 100 h 290 p 2.35

B 500 h 305 c 6.20

B 100 h 300 p vs s 200 h 285 p 3.25

 

 

Bean oil

B 600 nz +1.00 cso c .400

B 450 h 57/62 cs .105

B 500 g 53 c .085

B 200 z 48/43 ps vs s 60 c .320 vs 5000

B 300 h 48 p .750 to .850 

B 100 v 48/43 ps vs s 60 c .500 vs 5003

B 200 h 47 p .485 to .515

B 100 g 49 p .475 vs 4982

B 200 k 53/55 cs .440

B 100 h 50/5150 cs vs s 49 p .800 cr

S 100 k 53 c 1.640 vs 5023

B 500 g 53 c .085

 

 

Wheat

B 500 k 490 c 9 7/8 

S 150 n 530/480 ps and 150 n 560/630 cs 36 ½ cr

S 500 h 495 p 6 1/8 to 5 7/8 

B 100 g 505 p 3 ½ 

S 500 h 550 c 6 1/4

S 100 h 555 c 5 3/8 

S 500 w2 515 c 4 3/8 to 4 1/4

B 500 h 550 c 6 ½ vs 518

S 500 n 600 c 18 ¼ vs 528 1/2

B 600 h 540 c 8 to 8 3/4

B 200 g 520 p 10 vs 518

S 750 n 560 c 28 ¾ vs 538 1/2

 

Kc wheat

B 100 j 600 c and 100 k 600 c vs s 300 each of the j and k 520 p 74 ½ cr vs 541

S 600 k 530 c 9 ¼ vs 529

S 150 g 535 c 8 ½ to 8 3/8 

B 300 g 520 c 17 1/8 to 17 3/8 

 

On a block 

B 750 h 550/600 cs 8 3/8 vs 532