Rebalance started today....over 9k march corn traded TAS
A broad rally in consumer-staples and food-supply-chain stocks pushed ADM, Bunge, Conagra, Costco, Mondelez, Constellation Brands, and Target sharply higher, reflecting a defensive rotation by investors. The move points to growing confidence in pricing power, resilient consumer demand, and margin stability as markets react to softer labor data, easing inflation pressures, and reduced interest-rate volatility. Agribusiness names benefited from expectations of steadier global demand and improved crush and trading margins, while retailers and branded food companies gained on the view that lower rate pressure and improving real incomes can support both staple and discretionary spending. Overall, the action signals a shift toward cash-flow-reliable, inflation-resistant consumer names rather than higher-beta growth stocks.
Ukraine’s grain exports fell sharply in December as intensified Russian strikes disrupted port, energy, and logistics infrastructure. Wheat exports dropped nearly 25%, corn exports declined about 13%, and total grain exports were down roughly 16% year over year, according to market analysts and Ukrainian consultancy data. While exports had already been lagging earlier in the season, the escalation of attacks on ports and processing facilities significantly worsened flows, underscoring the fragility of Ukraine’s Black Sea export corridor. Conditions have improved modestly after grain terminals in Odesa installed additional diesel generators to offset power disruptions, but December highlighted the continued vulnerability of Ukrainian grain shipments to renewed military escalation.
French President Emmanuel Macron said France will vote against the EU–Mercosur trade deal, reaffirming the country’s long-standing opposition. France’s stance is driven mainly by concerns from farmers about unfair competition from South American beef and poultry produced under looser standards, as well as environmental worries tied to deforestation and enforcement. Macron’s comments increase the risk of further delays or a potential blockage of the agreement, highlighting how agricultural politics remain a major hurdle for EU trade deals with Mercosur despite recent progress by other member states.
Brazil set a new annual record for pork exports in 2025 as a market-diversification strategy paid off, with shipments rising 11.6% from 2024 to 1.51 million tonnes, according to the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA). December was a standout month, with exports up 25.8% year over year to 137,800 tonnes. Export revenues climbed 19.3% to $3.62 billion for the year, including $324.5 million in December alone. The Philippines emerged as the largest destination, importing 392,900 tonnes (+54.5%), while China slipped to second with 159,200 tonnes (-33%). Japan, Chile, and Hong Kong all posted solid gains. ABPA said the shift highlights a meaningful change in Brazil’s export landscape, reducing reliance on China and strengthening growth in Asian and Latin American markets.
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply in October to $29.4 billion, the lowest level since 2009, as imports fell and exports remained strong following President Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Imports dropped 3.2% while exports rose 2.6%, driving the monthly improvement. Economists cautioned, however, that some of the decline reflected temporary distortions—particularly swings in gold and pharmaceutical trade—and that the cumulative trade deficit for the year remained higher than last year.
Corn
S 500 nz +20 cso c 4 1/4
S 250 nz -15 cso p 4 1/4
b 200 hn -15 cso p 2
B 100 nu +10 cso c vs s -5 cso p 5 db
B 900 h 440/415 ps and 900 h 455/485 cs 11 3/8 db
S 200 u 435p/485c strangles 35 5/8
B 400 k 455 c 16 ½ vs 454 1/2
B 1000 h 420 p 1 1/2
B 500 k 500 c 4 1/2
B 500 k 425 p 4 5/8
B 1000 g 445 c 10 5/8
S 100 z 490 c 21 ¾ vs 464 1/4
B 400 hk -9 cso p 1
B 5000 g 465 c 1 ½ to 1 7/8
B 1000 g 435 p 2 3/8 to 2 1/2
B 1000 n 425p/500c strangles 17 7/8 vs 461
B 625 z 540c vs s z 430 p 3 5/8 cr vs 464
S 1000 h 440p/465c strangles 10 7/8
B 1000 g 460/470 cs 1 5/8
S 3000 h 450/480/510 call fly 5 7/8
S 3000 g 455/475 cs 3 ½ to 3 3/8
B 1000 g 440 p 3 7/8
B 3000 g 445 c 7 7/8 to 8 1/2
S 500 h 430p/460c strangles 9
S 500 g 435p/455c strangles 6 1/2
S 200 h 440 straddles 20 ¾ vs 446 3/4
B 375 k 375 p 1/2
B 1000 g 440 c 11
B 250 g 455 c 4 1/8
S 500 h 450/475 cs 6 1/2
B 1000 g 450 p 9
B 1000 g 450 c 6
B 250 h 490 c 1 1/4
B 500 g 455/465 cs 2 1/4
B 500 h 450 c vs s 1000 h 435 p 7/8 to ¾ cr
Beans
B 1400 w2 1050/1040/1036 put tree 7/8
S 250 h 1040 p 11 5/8 vs 1063
B 500 h 1010 p 3 7/8
B 1000 g 1050 p 7 1/2
B 500 h 1020 p 5 5/8
B 2000 h 1080 c 14 ½ vs 1063
B 1000 g 1040 p 4 5/8
B 250 k 1020 p 11 1/4
S 100 k 1100 c 21 7/8
S 100 h 1060 straddles 42
S 100 g 1060 straddles 27 1/4
Soymeal
B 250 h 310 c vs s 500 h 295 p .50 cr
B 300 h 310 c 5.90 vs 306.0
S 375 g 305/300 ps 2.00
B 200 g 300 p 1.95
S 200 h 300 p 5.25
S 500 g 307 c 3.80 to 3.75 vs 305.4
B 1000 h 315 c 4.10 to 4.55
On a block
B 300 n 320 c 12.55 vs 313.5
B 1000 h 305 c 7.00 vs 304.0
Bean oil
B 200 n 55/65 cs 1.200
B 150 h 55/70 cs 1.610
B 1000 n 54/58 cs .790 tp .800
B 100 g 51 c .230
S 300 g 4950/51 cs .385
On a block
B 150 u 55/70 cs 1.610
Wheat
B 1350 h 530 c vs s 500 p 6 3/8 to 6 3/4
B 400 g 515 p 6
S 750 n 480p/600c strangles 29 vs 539
S 700 u 555 straddles 87 ¼ vs 555
S 400 n 570/600/670/700 call condors 5 ¼ vs 539 3/4
B 200 g 540 c 3 3/8
S 100 g 520 p 18 1/4
Kc wheat
B 500 g 510 p 2 1/8
sources:
news bloomberg
options data globex
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