The White House Office of Management and Budget scheduled the first round of stakeholder meetings on the 45Z clean fuel tax credit for next week, with broad participation expected. With indirect land-use change (ILUC) removed from the carbon intensity calculation, more ethanol producers now qualify for the credit. The meetings are being viewed as an early but tangible sign that work is underway to finally resolve lingering Renewable Fuel Standard–related hurdles and bring this policy cycle to a close.
COT data out today and that will catch all the data up to date.
China’s cabinet said it reviewed a package of measures aimed at expanding domestic demand, signaling that policymakers are preparing coordinated steps to support economic growth from within rather than relying on exports. The discussion points to a focus on boosting consumer spending and encouraging business investment, likely through a mix of fiscal support and policy coordination with existing monetary easing. While this is not yet a detailed stimulus announcement, it reinforces that weak domestic demand remains a central concern for Beijing, and markets will be watching closely for concrete policies, scale, and timing to judge the real economic impact.
Reuters reported that global food prices declined slightly in December, but still ended 2025 higher overall, according to data from the FAO. The monthly dip reflected easing prices in some commodity categories, but stronger increases earlier in the year kept the annual average above 2024 levels. The report suggests that while near-term food price pressures have cooled, global food inflation remains elevated, supported by supply chain constraints, weather-related risks, and ongoing geopolitical disruptions.
Russia struck two civilian vessels in the Black Sea, according to Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, highlighting renewed risks to maritime traffic and regional trade routes. The incident underscores ongoing security threats to commercial shipping tied to the war, raising concerns about port access, insurance costs, and the safety of grain and other cargo movements from the region as hostilities continue.
Preliminary January University of Michigan consumer sentiment data showed a broad-based improvement in confidence. The headline consumer sentiment index rose to 54.0, beating expectations and marking a four-month high, while the current conditions index climbed sharply to 52.4 from 50.4, indicating consumers feel better about present economic conditions. The expectations index also edged higher to 55.0 from 54.6. However, inflation concerns remain elevated: one-year inflation expectations were unchanged at a high 4.2%, and longer-term 5-to-10-year inflation expectations increased to 3.4% from 3.2%. Overall, the report points to improving sentiment on growth and jobs, but persistent inflation expectations that could complicate the policy outlook.
Bloomberg Economics said EU member states have authorized the European Commission to sign a trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc, and while some procedural hurdles remain before full ratification, the deal is likely to be implemented. Although the direct economic gains are expected to be larger for Mercosur countries, the agreement represents a geopolitical win for the European Union by strengthening its influence in South America at a time when the United States is expanding its military presence in the region and China is deepening its economic engagement. The analysis also notes that the deal would have uneven sectoral impacts across the EU, benefiting some industries while creating pressure for others, particularly in agriculture and livestock.
Bloomberg reported that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Argentina has fully repaid the amount it drew from a $20 billion currency swap line with the United States under President Javier Milei’s government. As a result, the U.S. no longer holds Argentine pesos in its exchange stabilization fund, and Bessent said the transaction generated tens of millions of dollars in profit for U.S. taxpayers. The swap line, announced in September, was designed to help Argentina manage market volatility ahead of its midterm elections. Separately, Argentina also made a $4.3 billion payment on its global bonds after securing a $3 billion loan from six international banks, signaling improved near-term liquidity and debt management.
Corn
B 1500 g 435 p 2 5/8 to 2 3/4
S 1250 g 430p/460c strangles 4 to 3 3/4
S 500 h 450 c 8 1/8
S 100 z 500 c 19 1/8 vs 465
B 500 445 straddles 20 ½ vs 444 3/4
S 1000 h 440/420 ps and 1000 h 455/485 cs 10 ¾ cr
B 500 h 435 p 5 1/4
B 1000 h 440 p 6 3/4
B 500 w5 450 p 9 3/4
B 500 g 450 c vs s g 440 p 1 db
B 300 w3 445 c 7
B 1000 g 460/470 cs 1 ¼ to 1 3/8
S 1000 g 470 c 1
S 750 k 460/500 cs 9 1/8
S 1000 h 430 p 4 1/4
S 500 h 440/460 cs 7 5/8 vs 444 3/4
B 100 nz -10 cso p 6 3/4
S 250 nz +5 cso c 6 1/2
B 1500 g 440 c 9 5/8 to 10
B 2000 g 445 c 6 ¾ to 7 1/2
S 1000 g 430 p 1 3/4
S 2000 g 435 p 3 ¼ to 3
B 500 h 430 straddles 23 3/8 vs 445 1/4
S 600 g 440p/450c strangles 10 to 9 7/8
B 500 k 455/500 cs vs s 435 p 3 db
On a block
B 1000 g 450/470 cs vs s 420 p 3 5/8 vs 445 1/2
Beans
B 1000 h 1080 c 14 3/8 to 14 5/8
B 2500 w3 1080 c 5
B 1500 w3 1080 c 5
B 500 k 1100 c 22 7/8 vs 1078 1/2
B 500 x 1060 p vs 1077 ¼ vs s 500 k 1060 p vs 1077 ¼ paying 23 1/8
Soymeal
B 1500 h 330 c 1.25
S 1300 g 330 c .25 to .20
B 250 h 300 p vs s 500 h 290 p 1.20 cr
B 100k 365 c 1.40
S 100 g 315 p 11.50
B 500 g 315 c 1.15
S 1000 h 295 p 3.30 to 3.10
Bean oil
B 750 n 54/58 cs .865 to .870 vs 5062
B 2000 k 58 c vs s h 52 c .140 to .155 db
B 700 g 50 c .800
B 500 g 5075 c .480
B 500 g 4950 c 1.060
B 1000 k 52 c 2.030 vs 5040
S 200 n 55/65 cs 1.310
S 250 k 60 c vs b h 60 c .410
B 250 h 52/56 cs .540 vs 4966
B 375 n 54/58 cs .865 vs 5062
B 450 h 5350 c .560
S 100 h 50 p 1.810
On a block
B 500 k 54/58 cs .735 vs 5042
Wheat
B 500 h 530 c vs s 500 p 4 db
B 500 w3 530 c 2 ¾ to 2 7/8
B 1000 h 530 c vs s 500 p 3 5/8 to 4 db
Kc wheat
S 500 g 530 c 8 ¾ to 8 1/2
B 200 g 530 c 9 5/8
B 150 g 530/535 cs 2 1/8
Crush options
S 125 h 140 p 5 to 4 1/2
B 50 h 160/180 cs 4 1/4
Hogs
Bought 400 July 60 puts paid .10
Sold 400 Feb 82 calls @ 4.25 down to 3.975
Sold 400 Feb 80 calls @ 6.025 down to 5.80
Bought 200 Dec 82 puts paid 6.85
Sold 100 Oct 78/94 strangle @ 4.30
Bought 100 aug 100/106 cs 3.250
Live Cattle
Bought 500 April 220 puts paid 2.55 up to 2.70
Sold 300 April 225 puts @ 3.30
Sold 200 Feb 237 calls @ 2.375 down to 2.35
Bought 500 Feb 225 puts paid 1.25 up to 1.35
Bought 500 Feb 230 puts paid 2.425 up to 2.475
Bought 150 April 226 puts paid 3.475
Bought 100 Aug 254 calls paid 2.30
Bought 150 Feb 228/234 call spreads paid 4.175 up to 4.20
Feeder cattle
Bought 300 March 340 p 6.050
PJ Quaid
Senior Vice President, Agriculture Options
O-312-373-5270
C-847-284-9490
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
option graph bloomberg
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