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CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

The 45Z clean fuel tax credit stakeholder meetings begin today, structured as a series of individual OMB/OIRA listening sessions running January 13–16, with an additional day on January 20, 2026. These are segmented 30–60 minute meetings with different industry groups, designed to gather technical feedback and map unresolved implementation issues rather than deliver executable rules. That structure clearly signals OMB is in information-gathering mode, not policy-delivery mode—helping explain why futures markets are not pricing in near-term demand impacts despite a constructive long-term policy signal. Beneath the surface, however, options markets are more active. Since the meetings were announced, call buying has increased and implied volatility has moved higher, indicating traders are selectively positioning for asymmetric upside tied to eventual policy clarity, while still acknowledging that January is about process, not resolution.

Short dated corn option open interest is above 50,000. 

JP Morgan beat earnings. 

President Trump said the United States will impose a 25% tariff on any country that does business with Iran, effective immediately, calling the move final and non-negotiable. The goal is to sharply increase economic pressure on Iran by forcing other countries to choose between trade with Tehran and access to the U.S. market. Details on how the policy would be implemented or enforced have not yet been provided, leaving legal and practical questions unresolved.

President Donald Trump warned that if the Supreme Court rules against U.S. tariffs, the financial and economic consequences could be severe. He said the government could be forced to refund hundreds of billions of dollars in collected tariffs, with additional costs potentially far larger if companies seek compensation for investments made to avoid those tariffs. Trump framed the issue as a national security matter, arguing that unwinding the tariffs would create years of legal and fiscal chaos over who should be paid, how much, and when. He concluded that such a ruling would undermine U.S. economic stability and global credibility, saying the country would be “screwed” if the Court rules against the tariffs.

Chinese President Xi Jinping called on the Communist Party to advance full and rigorous Party self-governance with higher standards and more concrete measures, emphasizing stronger internal discipline and anti-corruption efforts. He made the remarks while addressing the fifth plenary session of the Party’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, urging tighter institutional controls on power and a sustained, intensified fight against corruption to ensure Party integrity and support goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

Russian drones struck two foreign-flagged vessels near Ukraine’s port of Chornomorsk on Monday, according to a source.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said the U.S. may be entering a historic shift in global energy markets in which OPEC’s influence is diminishing, according to CNBC. He added that if oil prices move lower, it would present an opportunity for the United States to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

House Republican leaders plan to bring the next government funding package to a vote Wednesday night, according to sources cited by Politico.

The Trump administration is nearing a trade deal with Taiwan that would reduce U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese exports to about 15% and include major new U.S. manufacturing commitments. As part of the agreement, TSMC would commit to building at least five additional semiconductor manufacturing facilities in Arizona, significantly expanding its U.S. footprint. The deal is framed as both a trade and national security move, aimed at reshoring advanced chip production while deepening U.S.–Taiwan economic ties.

An EU Commission spokesperson said the Mercosur trade deal could be applied provisionally without formal ratification by the European Parliament.

 

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said fentanyl trafficking from Mexico to the United States has been reduced by about half over the past year.

Outside Markets

Price

Change 

% Change

 

Dow

                      49,739

             (70.00)

-0.14

 

Crude

                         60.50

                  1.00

1.68

 

US Dollar

                    98.7250

                0.099

0.10

 

Gold

                  4,585.84

          (11.670)

-0.25

 

US 2/10 Swap

                    64.5750

             0.6960

-

 

VIX

                         15.36

                  0.24

-

 
     

CBOT Ags Volume & Open Interest

   
 

Previous Volume

Change in OI

Options Volume

 Change in Options OI 

Corn 

               1,059,630

             44,360

                  384,460

                                    20,597

SRW

                    200,614

             (1,272)

                     29,232

                                       1,007

HRW

                    147,957

             (2,278)

                                -  

                                       2,099

Soybeans

                    394,522

                5,243

                  105,203

                                    26,127

Meal

                    173,954

                5,159

                     14,163

                                        (335)

Oil

                    211,880

             (2,514)

                     50,381

                                    23,518

Feeders

                      17,543

                    615

                       4,779

                                       2,338

Live Cattle

                      67,565

             (2,024)

                       7,721

                                       2,903

Hogs

                      93,871

             (1,343)

                     13,246

                                           830

Overnight options activity 

Corn

S 250 h 420 c 8 to 7 3/4

B 100 k 410/390 ps 3 7/8 

S 200 k 490 c 2 ¼ 

S 500 k 500 c 1 5/8 

B 500 g 415 p 2 3/4

B 1000 h 400 p 1 ½ to 1 5/8 

S 400 n 400 p 5

B 500 h 415/400 ps 4 1/8 

B 200 sd h 465 c vs s sd h 435 p even vs 447 1/2

B 150 z 465 p 39

B 200 h 415 p 6

B 200 h 430/410 ps 10 7/8

 

Beans

S 300 h 1120 c 1 3/4

B 150 h 1050 c 13 1/2

B 1000 h 1010/970 ps 4 3/4

S 500 k 1060 straddles 56 5/8 

B 200 k 1200 c 3 1/8 

S 1000 h 1050 p 21

B 400 x 1300 c 9 1/2

B 1000 k 1060 p 29 7/8 to 30 1/8 

 

Soymeal

B 300 h 300 c 10.10

 

Bean oil

B 500 n 60 c 1.250

S 500 h 55 c .530

 

Wheat

B 150 g 505p 3 5/8 

 

Open interest changes

Corn

March 420 put buy vs sale of march 440 call was new......july 450/500 call spread sale and march 440 put buys were closing....over 31k of the march 450 calls traded yesterday and oi was down 3900

 

Beans

May 1050 straddle sale and march 1000 put buys were new....march 1030 put sale was closing 

 

Soymeal

W5 310 call buy was new

 

Bean oil

May 58 call buy, may 47/44 put spread sale, march 55 call buy and may 52 call buys were new

 

Wheat

March 500 put buy vs sale of march 530 calls was closing 

 

Cvol

Ags 17.72% down .69%

Corn 16.59% down 2.45%

Beans 14.28% down 1.22%

Soymeal 17.75% down 1.45%

Bean oil 26.95% up 2.23%

Wheat 21.66% down 2.13%

Feeder cattle 18.89% up .30%

Live cattle 16.50% down .60%

Lean hogs 22.93% up 1.32%

Class 3 milk 15.70% up 1.25%

 

Cornimage-20260113061611-1

    

Beans

image-20260113061611-2

Soymeal

image-20260113061611-3

Bean oil

image-20260113061611-4

Wheat

image-20260113061611-5

Kc wheat

image-20260113061611-6

Miax wheat 

image-20260113061611-7

Oats

image-20260113061611-8

Rough rice

image-20260113061611-9

Crush

image-20260113061611-10

Feeder cattle 

image-20260113061611-11

Live cattle 

image-20260113061611-12

Lean hogs

image-20260113061611-13

 

 

sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
charts bloomberg

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