ag options recap from 1/21
House Speaker Mike Johnson said lawmakers are working to include a fix for year-round E15 ethanol sales in the current budget appropriations process, signaling that Congress may address the issue through a must-pass funding bill. Speaking at the Capitol, Johnson said he has met with members of the House Agriculture Committee and described the issue as time-sensitive. He added that the House Rules Committee is considering whether to allow a vote on an amendment that would extend E15 sales year-round, amid continued pressure from refiners and biofuel companies seeking policy certainty on higher ethanol blends.
President Donald J. Trump said that after a productive meeting with NATO Secretary G
eneral Mark Rutte, the United States and NATO have established a framework for a future agreement involving Greenland and the broader Arctic region. He said the deal, if finalized, would benefit both the U.S. and NATO allies, and that based on this progress he will not impose tariffs that were scheduled to take effect on February 1. Trump added that additional discussions are ongoing, including issues related to the “Golden Dome” and Greenland, with negotiations to be led by Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and others reporting directly to him.
China’s clean-energy narrative promoted at Davos contrasts sharply with on-the-ground realities. Despite record solar installations in 2024, China still consumes roughly 56% of the world’s coal and is building new coal-fired power plants at the fastest pace in a decade. The power system is structured to prioritize coal through long-term contracts, leaving a significant portion of solar capacity underutilized, while the solar manufacturing sector suffered heavy financial losses and widespread bankruptcies last year. The takeaway for investors is that headlines celebrating China as a clean-energy leader overlook structural dependence on coal and weak renewable economics, raising meaningful questions about the durability and profitability of China’s clean-energy investment story.
President Trump said that cutting fraud in government programs should help move the U.S. closer to a balanced federal budget. The comments emphasize fraud reduction as a source of potential savings and signal the administration’s focus on tighter oversight and enforcement as part of its broader fiscal strategy, amid ongoing debates in Washington over spending, deficits, and budget discipline.
LTD for feb grain options is Friday.
Corn
S 1500 k 420 p 7 ¼ to 6 1/2
B 750 w2 425 c vs s w1 425 c 1 ¼ db
B 500 h 410p/435c strangles 4 1/4
S 2000 g 430 c 7/8 to 3/8
B 800 h 430 c 4 3/8 vs 424 3/4
S 600 sd n 460 c 13 1/4
B 400 n 450 c 14 1/2
S 1500 h 450 c 3/4
S 250 u 420p/465c strangles 30 ½ to 30 3/8
S 750 n 420 p 9 7/8
B 200 z27 440 p 22 1/2
B 500 h 435 c 2 3/8
S 100 nu even cso straddle vs b 100 nu +10 cso c 8 ½ cr
S 1000 g 425 p 3
B 100 w5 430c vs s w5 425 p ½ cr
B 200 sd k 470 c 4 ¾ vs 451 1/2
B 200 z 465 c 13
B 300 k 430 straddles 25 1/2
B 1000 g 430 c 7/8 to 1
S 500 sd k 450 p 10
S 1000 h 420 p 6 1/2
B 400 hk -9 cso p 1
S 150 z 500 c 12 ½ vs 449 3/4
B 500 u 420 p vs s n 440 p 4 3/8 cr
B 1000 h 435 c 2 ¼ to 2 3/8
S 300 z 480 c 17 3/8
S 100 sd j 455 c 5
Beans
B 2500 h 990 p 5/8
B 800 n 1080 c 42 ½ to 43 7/8
B 200 u 1100 c vs s 400 k 1100 c 5/8 cr
B 300 h 1080 c 9 1/4
S 1000 sd h 1100 c 3 3/4
B 150 sd n 1060 p 25
B 200 k 1030 p vs s h 1030 p 6 db
B 500 g 1060/1050 ps 2 1/2
B 850 g 1060 p vs s 1700 g 1050 p 1 3/8 to 1 1/2
B 100 k 1040 p 12 1/2
B 600 nx +30/+50 cso cs 3 5/8
B 500 h 1100 c vs s h 1020 p 2 1/8 db vs 1064 1/4
B 350 n 1020/970 ps 8
S 300 k 1080/1100/1120/1200 call condor 6 3/8 cr
S 200 h 1070 c 14
B 500 w2 1100 c 3 3/4
S 300 k 1080 straddles 55 3/4
B 1125 h 1040/1020 ps 3 1/2
On a block
B 300 x 1080 c 51 5/8 vs 1074 1/2
S 350 k 1070 p 25 vs 1074 1/4
Soymeal
S 1000 h 280 p 1.25
B 300 h 295/310 cs vs s 280 p 1.60 db
B 100 h 290 p 3.95 vs 293.7
B 700 h 285 p 2.10 vs 293.7
B 600 h 300 c 3.05
B 500 h 280/270 ps .95
S 200 h 285 p 2.30
B 500 h 300/310 cs 1.55 to 1.60
S 100 h 290 straddles 11.05
B 1000 h 280 p 1.15 to 1.35
B 100 k 300/330 cs vs s h 295 c 1.20 db
B 200 h 315/340 cs .80
B 100 k 290/270 ps 4.75
Bean oil
S 1500 k 60/70 cs 1.100 vs 5448
B 100 n 55 c 3.650 vs 5470
B 100 q 55 c 3.740 vs 5448
B 1000 h 48 p .120 to .125
S 100 n 45 p .430 vs 5467
S 200 k 55/58 cs .790
B 1000 h 59/61 cs .185
S 500 k 54 c 3.320 to 3.230
S 1000 k 60 c 1.430 to 1.360
B 500 k 49 p .840 to .850
S 200 h 55/60 cs .990
S 600 k 52 c 4.260
B 500 h 46 p .060
B 500 h 5350 straddles 3.290 to 3.340
S 250 k 5050 c 4.825 vs 54.00
S 150 k 5150 c 4.215 vs 43.98
S 100 n 52 c 4.820 vs 54.35
B 700 h 4750 p .110
B 500 h 55/60 cs vs s h 52/57 cs 1.00 cr
B 150 g 54 c .255 to .260
S 250 k 54/56 cs .740
Wheat
B 200 j 540 c vs s j 500 p 2 ¼ db
S 1000 g 520 c 1/4
B 400 h 500 p 7 1/4
Kc wheat
B 500 h 545/600 cs and 500 h 510/480 ps 10 1/8 db vs 520 1/4
S 500 h 550 c vs b 500 g 530 c 2 ¾ to 2 5/8 cr
B 400 g 520 p 2 ½ to 3 1/8
B 600 h 525/590 cs and h 495/460 ps paying 11 ¾ vs 521
S 500 g 525 straddles 7 5/8 to 7 1/4
B 100 k 510/480 ps 7 7/8
B 500 n 520p/560c strangles 50 1/8 to 50 ¼ vs 544 1/2
Ethanol
B 100 g 155 p 2
B 100 h 160/145 ps 4.25
| Corn | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| C G6 | 421.75 | -2.00 | 420 | 16.3 | 1.20 | 6.50 | 4.33 | 6.28 | 23.66 | 2 |
| C H6 | 421.75 | -2.00 | 420 | 13.2 | 0.30 | 6.50 | 3.51 | 6.28 | 23.66 | 30 |
| C J6 | 429.75 | -1.50 | 430 | 13.3 | 0.00 | 6.00 | 3.60 | 6.04 | 22.33 | 65 |
| C K6 | 429.75 | -1.50 | 430 | 14.6 | -0.20 | 6.00 | 3.95 | 6.04 | 22.33 | 93 |
| C N6 | 436.25 | -1.50 | 435 | 16.5 | -0.20 | 5.75 | 4.53 | 5.82 | 21.18 | 156 |
| C U6 | 436.00 | -0.50 | 435 | 18.7 | -0.20 | 4.50 | 5.14 | 4.33 | 15.75 |
212
|
| Beans | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| S G6 | 1064.50 | 11.50 | 1060 | 15.0 | -0.20 | 16.25 | 10.06 | 9.43 | 14.07 | 2 |
| S H6 | 1064.50 | 11.50 | 1060 | 12.9 | 0.00 | 16.25 | 8.65 | 9.43 | 14.07 | 30 |
| S J6 | 1075.00 | 11.00 | 1080 | 12.6 | 0.10 | 16.25 | 8.53 | 9.09 | 13.42 | 65 |
| S K6 | 1075.00 | 11.00 | 1080 | 13.0 | 0.20 | 16.25 | 8.80 | 9.09 | 13.42 | 93 |
| S N6 | 1087.25 | 11.00 | 1090 | 13.8 | 0.20 | 16.25 | 9.45 | 8.53 | 12.45 | 156 |
| SRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| W G6 | 507.75 | -2.50 | 510 | 20.7 | -0.60 | 9.75 | 6.62 | 4.40 | 13.77 | 2 |
| W H6 | 507.75 | -2.50 | 510 | 19.6 | -0.30 | 9.75 | 6.27 | 4.40 | 13.77 | 30 |
| W J6 | 519.00 | -2.75 | 520 | 21.5 | -0.20 | 9.50 | 7.03 | 4.18 | 12.79 | 65 |
| W K6 | 519.00 | -2.75 | 520 | 22.7 | 0.00 | 9.50 | 7.42 | 4.18 | 12.79 | 93 |
| W N6 | 531.50 | -2.50 | 530 | 24.7 | 0.00 | 8.50 | 8.27 | 3.96 | 11.84 | |
| Bean Oil | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| BOG6 | 54.01 | 1.45 | 54 | 26.9 | 1.20 | 1.75 | 0.92 | 0.75 | 22.18 | 2 |
| BOH6 | 54.01 | 1.45 | 54 | 27.2 | 0.80 | 1.75 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 22.18 | 30 |
| BOK6 | 54.54 | 1.43 | 54.5 | 28.7 | 0.80 | 1.71 | 0.99 | 0.74 | 21.53 | 93 |
| BON6 | 54.84 | 1.42 | 55 | 27.3 | 0.40 | 1.66 | 0.94 | 0.71 | 20.63 | 156 |
| Meal | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| SMG6 | 291.40 | -0.20 | 290 | 18.5 | -1.40 | 4.40 | 3.40 | 3.22 | 17.53 | 2 |
| SMH6 | 291.40 | -0.20 | 290 | 16.5 | -0.50 | 4.40 | 3.03 | 3.22 | 17.53 | 30 |
| SMK6 | 295.20 | -0.60 | 295 | 16.2 | -0.10 | 4.30 | 3.01 | 3.11 | 16.74 | 93 |
| SMN6 | 300.10 | -0.90 | 300 | 16.8 | -0.10 | 4.70 | 3.18 | 2.92 | 15.43 | 156 |
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
vol graphs bloomberg
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