China is escalating economic pressure on Japan by signaling tighter dual-use export controls that threaten Japan’s industrial base, particularly in critical inputs like rare earths and graphite. While the measures are not yet fully implemented, the leverage is significant: China supplies up to 90% of Japan’s heavy rare earths and dominates exports of graphite essential for battery production, underscoring Japan’s vulnerability. The move is widely seen as retaliation for Japan’s stance on Taiwan and as a test of U.S. support for a key Asian ally. Japan is trying to avoid an outright escalation, but the imbalance is stark—China accounts for over 20% of Japan’s trade, while Japan represents only about 5% of China’s. Although Tokyo retains some counter-leverage in semiconductor materials such as photoresists and ABF film, any retaliation risks economic blowback and would test Japan’s political willingness to engage in a broader economic confrontation.
U.S. grain export inspections for the week ending January 22 were mixed but remain constructive overall. Total inspections reached 3.31 MMT, slightly below the prior week but well above last year’s pace. Corn inspections increased to 1.51 MMT, with Mexico the top destination, followed by Japan and Spain, reinforcing steady global demand despite rising South American competition. Soybean inspections eased to 1.32 MMT but were overwhelmingly China-driven, with China accounting for 897k MT, underscoring continued reliance on episodic Chinese buying even as seasonal flows shift to Brazil. Wheat inspections fell to 351k MT and remain soft versus last year, though Korea and Japan led weekly destinations. Overall, corn continues to carry the export complex, soybeans remain opportunistic and China-dependent, and wheat lags on competitiveness.
Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, declared that her country has “had enough” of what she called U.S. meddling in Venezuelan affairs, urging Washington to stop issuing “orders” and respect Venezuela’s sovereignty after the United States led a military operation in early January that ousted and captured Nicolás Maduro. Rodríguez, speaking to oil workers, rejected external interference in domestic politics and emphasized resolving internal conflicts through Venezuelan-led dialogue, even as the U.S. has signaled ongoing involvement in the country’s oil sector and transition. Her remarks reflect growing tension between Caracas and Washington amid a fraught political and diplomatic standoff following the controversial intervention.
Canada is signaling a strategic shift away from China while strengthening ties with India, aiming to manage U.S. trade pressure and reduce geopolitical risk. Prime Minister Mark Carney has emphasized that Canada has no plans to pursue a broad free-trade agreement with China, a move intended to reassure Washington amid heightened scrutiny and threats of aggressive tariffs. Meanwhile, Carney’s anticipated early-March visit to India highlights a “safe diversification” strategy, focusing on energy, uranium, critical minerals, and technology cooperation through specific agreements rather than sweeping FTAs. Collectively, these actions reflect an effort to diversify trade without provoking U.S. retaliation, positioning India as a preferred alternative partner as access to China becomes increasingly restricted under U.S. trade and security frameworks. Given this context, you would think his first priority would be to work on fixing the relationship with the U.S.
Corn
S 1000 h 400p/470c strangles ¾ vs 428 1/2
S 650 h 400p/445c strangles 1 ¾ vs 428
B 500 k 450 c 7 7/8
B 400 h 435/455 cs 2 7/8
B 300 u 470 c vs s n 470 c 5 3/8
S 150 k 420p/450c strangles 15 1/4
S 1000 h 440 c 2 1/2
B 1000 n 475/550 cs 6 5/8 vs 442 1/2
S 500 n 410p/470c strangles 15 1/2
B 1000 h 455 c vs s 500 h 445 c even
B 150 z 470/430 ps vs s 530 c 11 7/8 db
S 300 z 440 p 20 ¼ vs 454
B 100 h 445/490 cs vs s 400 p 5 ¼ db
S 400 sd n 460 c 14 ¾ to 14 1/8
S 2000 h 420 p 3
B 350 n 500 c 5
S 200 u 440 p 24 ¼ vs 440 3/4
B 250 k 415 p 4 1/2
S 1000 h 425 p 4 3/8 to 4 1/4
S 250 h 420 p 2 3/4
S 150 sd j 460 c 5
B 500 h 425 p 4 7/8
B 500 h 420 p 3
S 200 n 440 p 18 vs 441 1/2
On a block
S 500 z 430p/480c strangles 35 3/8 vs 455
S 500 k 415 p 4 ¼ vs 437
B 500 n 430p/480c strangles 20 ½ vs 443
Beans
B 600 k 1040 p vs s k 1140 c 4 ¾ db vs 1074
S 500 h 1080 calls 6 5/8
B 500 h 1040 p 6 to 6 1/4
B 100 sd q 1300 c 4 3/4
B 200 j 1100 c 11 3/8
B 200 nx +30 c vs s 400 nx +100 c 5 db
S 250 x 1220 c 16 1/4
S 250 x 980 p 12 5/8
B 700 nx +30/+50 cso cs 3 1/4
B 550 h 1050/1030 ps 5 1/8 to 5 1/2
B 500 n 1200 c 9 1/4
S 275 k 1120 p 57 ¾
S 300 n 1200 c 10 1/8
S 450 n 1050 c 39 ¾ to 38 5/8
S 1000 h 1020 p 2
B 300 nx +30/+50 cso cs 3 1/4
S 300 j 1040 p 7 1/8
S 3000 h 1180 c 1/2
B 600 h 1050 p 7 5/8
S 500 h 1050 p 9 1/8 to 8
B 1500 w5 1060/1050 ps 2 to 2 1/8
On a block
B 200 h 1080 c 9 ¼ vs 1066
Soymeal
S 500 k 300 c 9.20 to 8.95
S 500 h 300/315 cs 2.60
S 1000 k 310 c vs b 1000 h 290 p 3.10 to 3.00
S 200 h 300 c 6.65 vs 300.5
B 500 h 290 p 3.10 to 3.20
B 100 k 300/305 cs 1.85
B 1000 j 305 c vs s h 300 c 2.40 db
B 1000 h 290/280 ps 2.35 vs 295.6
S 800 k 320 c 4.20 to 4.05
S 1000 h 305 c 3.00 to 2.45
B 750 h 305/315 cs 1.30 to 1.50
On a block
B 1000 n 325 c 6.50
Bean oil
B 100 h 52 p vs s h 58 c .220 db
S 100 n 4450 p .330
B 300 h 52 p .530
S 300 h 57 c .645 to .575
S 500 k 47/44 ps and 250 k 50 p collecting 1.420
B 250 k 55 c 2.920
B 3000 h 500 p 2 5/8 to 3 1/4
B 600 h 540/560 cs 3 1/2
On a block
B 800 k 535 c 23 3/8
Wheat
B 4000 h 400 p 2 5/8 to 3 1/4
B 600 h 540/560 cs 3 1/2
B 300 h 535 c 10
B 100 h 518/500 ps vs s h 550 c 1/8 cr
On a block
B 800 k 535 c 23 3/8
Kc wheat
B 2000 k 520 p vs s 580 c ½ to 1 ¼ db
B 2000 h 500 p 2 1/8
B 1000 h 510 p 4 1/8 vs 531
S 1300 n 600 c 19 7/8 to 19 3/8
On a block
S 350 n 600 c 19 7/8
Ethanol
B 50 g 165 p vs s 170 c 4.5
B 25 g 160 p vs s 170 c 2.0
| Corn | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| C H6 | 428.25 | -2.25 | 430 | 13.7 | -0.10 | 4.25 | 3.70 | 6.60 | 24.46 | 25 |
| C J6 | 436.00 | -2.00 | 435 | 13.7 | 0.10 | 4.00 | 3.76 | 6.30 | 22.95 | 60 |
| C K6 | 436.00 | -2.00 | 435 | 15.3 | 0.10 | 4.00 | 4.20 | 6.30 | 22.95 | 88 |
| C M6 | 442.00 | -1.75 | 440 | 16.5 | 0.00 | 3.50 | 4.59 | 6.03 | 21.66 | 116 |
| C N6 | 442.00 | -1.75 | 440 | 17.0 | 0.10 | 3.50 | 4.73 | 6.03 | 21.66 | 151 |
| C U6 | 441.25 | -0.75 | 440 | 19.2 | 0.20 | 2.75 | 5.34 | 4.46 | 16.04 | 207 |
| Beans | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| S H6 | 1061.75 | -6.00 | 1060 | 12.8 | -0.30 | 16.50 | 8.56 | 9.03 | 13.50 | 25 |
| S J6 | 1074.00 | -5.50 | 1070 | 12.1 | -0.50 | 15.50 | 8.19 | 8.58 | 12.69 | 60 |
| S K6 | 1074.00 | -5.50 | 1070 | 12.7 | -0.40 | 15.50 | 8.59 | 8.58 | 12.69 | 88 |
| S M6 | 1087.50 | -5.00 | 1090 | 13.5 | 0.00 | 15.00 | 9.25 | 8.07 | 11.77 | 116 |
| S N6 | 1087.50 | -5.00 | 1090 | 13.6 | -0.40 | 15.00 | 9.32 | 8.07 | 11.77 | 151 |
| SRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| W H6 | 522.50 | -7.00 | 525 | 22.4 | 0.10 | 11.75 | 7.37 | 6.04 | 18.36 | 25 |
| W J6 | 532.75 | -6.25 | 535 | 22.6 | -0.20 | 10.50 | 7.58 | 5.60 | 16.68 | 60 |
| W K6 | 532.75 | -6.25 | 535 | 23.1 | -0.30 | 10.50 | 7.75 | 5.60 | 16.68 | 88 |
| W M6 | 545.25 | -5.75 | 545 | 24.9 | 0.00 | 9.50 | 8.55 | 5.35 | 15.58 | 116 |
| W N6 | 545.25 | -5.75 | 545 | 25.0 | 0.00 | 9.50 | 8.59 | 5.35 | 15.58 | 151 |
| HRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| KWH6 | 529.75 | -11.00 | 530 | 23.0 | 0.40 | 15.00 | 7.68 | 7.10 | 21.28 | 25 |
| KWJ6 | 540.50 | -10.00 | 540 | 23.4 | 0.00 | 13.75 | 7.97 | 6.77 | 19.89 | 60 |
| KWK6 | 540.50 | -10.00 | 540 | 23.6 | -0.40 | 13.75 | 8.04 | 6.77 | 19.89 | 88 |
| KWN6 | 553.50 | -9.50 | 555 | 24.9 | -0.20 | 12.75 | 8.68 | 6.63 | 19.03 | 151 |
| KWU6 | 568.75 | -9.50 | 570 | 25.3 | -0.30 | 12.50 | 9.06 | 6.57 | 18.33 | 207 |
| Bean Oil | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| BOH6 | 53.89 | -0.10 | 54 | 25.8 | 0.00 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.73 | 21.46 | 25 |
| BOJ6 | 54.42 | -0.10 | 54.5 | 25.8 | 0.00 | 0.91 | 0.88 | 0.72 | 20.89 | 60 |
| BOK6 | 54.42 | -0.10 | 54.5 | 28.5 | 0.00 | 0.91 | 0.98 | 0.72 | 20.89 | 88 |
| BON6 | 54.77 | -0.08 | 55 | 27.2 | 0.00 | 0.87 | 0.94 | 0.69 | 19.99 | 151 |
| Meal | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| SMH6 | 294.30 | -5.60 | 295 | 20.3 | 0.00 | 8.60 | 3.76 | 3.65 | 19.67 | 25 |
| SMJ6 | 297.90 | -4.20 | 300 | 20.3 | 0.00 | 6.70 | 3.81 | 3.36 | 17.92 | 60 |
| SMK6 | 297.90 | -4.20 | 300 | 18.1 | 0.00 | 6.70 | 3.40 | 3.36 | 17.92 | 88 |
| SMN6 | 303.00 | -3.70 | 305 | 18.0 | 0.00 | 6.00 | 3.44 | 3.14 | 16.43 | 151 |
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
vols bloomberg
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