The most recent funding package fully funded the U.S. Department of Agriculture for the current fiscal year, meaning USDA operations and reporting are not expected to be disrupted even if a broader government shutdown occurs. As a result, key USDA agricultural reports and data releases should continue as scheduled, providing ongoing transparency for grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Any risk to USDA reporting would only arise if future funding deadlines are not addressed.
After more than two decades of negotiations, the European Union and India have reached a trade agreement that reflects shifting global trade dynamics rather than a sudden breakthrough in bilateral relations. Both blocs run structural trade surpluses with the United States, and both have strong incentives to preserve the current global trade order while insulating themselves from rising U.S. protectionism. The deal is less about dramatically expanding EU-India trade in the near term and more about strategic alignment—locking in rules, reducing uncertainty, and strengthening leverage as Washington pushes reciprocal tariffs and tougher market-access demands. In that sense, the agreement is as much a geopolitical hedge against U.S. trade pressure as it is a traditional free-trade pact, allowing both sides to diversify partnerships without fundamentally disrupting the status quo that has benefited their export-led sectors.
The latest Bloomberg Farm Brief suggests that year-round E15 remains an active and constructive policy issue for the grain markets, even if the path forward is gradual. Farm-state House Democrats are pushing to be included in the E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council, signaling continued political focus on protecting and expanding ethanol demand, while President Trump has publicly backed permanent E15 and put the onus on Congress to deliver legislation. For customers, the key takeaway is that U.S. ethanol demand is unlikely to be rolled back and instead retains a durable policy floor, which helps stabilize corn demand into 2026 and limits downside risk during periods of macro or energy market volatility.
Canada’s widening November trade deficit shows how risky its “elbows up” posture toward the U.S. really is, as falling exports to its largest customer quickly translated into weaker trade performance. Despite talk of diversification, Canada has no near-term alternative market that can replace U.S. demand, especially for energy and agriculture. Pushing a confrontational stance risks self-inflicted damage through softer growth, a weaker currency, and reduced leverage rather than real economic gains.
Roger’s Roll begins today in the grain markets, bringing mechanical index-style flows that shift exposure from nearby to deferred contracts. The impact is primarily felt in spreads rather than outright prices, with nearby contracts facing pressure and deferred months finding support, often widening carry structures. Corn typically sees the cleanest effect through weaker front months and firmer back months, wheat spreads can move sharply due to thinner liquidity, and soybeans may show noisier behavior as meal and export flows partially offset the roll. These moves are flow-driven rather than fundamental, often distorting price signals during the window and stabilizing once the roll is complete.
The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in November to $56.8 billion as imports rebounded and exports declined, reversing what had been the smallest trade gap since 2009. Exports fell 3.6% on the month, while imports rose 5%, driven largely by capital goods and a surge in inbound pharmaceutical shipments. Although the deficit remains smaller than in recent years, the size and speed of the widening highlight volatile trade flows tied to shifting tariff policy considerations and will factor into economists’ estimates for fourth-quarter GDP growth.
President Donald Trump said he spoke with Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, signaling renewed high-level engagement between the two governments. While no details were provided, the timing suggests discussions around border security, migration, and trade coordination, all of which have potential implications for U.S.–Mexico relations and cross-border agricultural trade under USMCA.
Darling Ingredients reported improving fourth-quarter earnings alongside a constructive outlook for agriculture-linked markets, with its Diamond Green Diesel joint venture earning $55 million in net income in Q4 and shipping about 285 million gallons, as margins rebounded to roughly $0.41 per gallon. Management emphasized that demand for agricultural byproducts—particularly animal fats and other feedstocks used in renewable fuels—is strengthening, supporting both the biofuels segment and the core ingredients business. The company also pointed to a more favorable policy backdrop, citing progress on 45Z clean fuel credits and evolving EPA RVO rules, which are expected to further support domestic, ag-derived products and improve earnings power heading into 2026.
Corn
S 2000 h 420 p 2 ¼ to 2 1/8
B 2000 h 430 p 5 5/8 to 6
B 250 j 445/465 cs 4 5/8
B 400 h 450/465 cs 5/8
S 300 k 440 c 12 3/8 vs 439
B 200 h 430 straddles 12
B 1200 h 430/422 ps 3 1/4
B 100 z 460/400 ps vs s 490 c 5 3/8 db
B 1000 n 460/550 cs 12 3/8 vs 448
B 1000 n 460/550 cs 12 vs 447 1/4
B 300 w1 430/435 cs 2 3/8
B 100 z 450 p 24 ½
S 750 k 490 c 2
B 750 k 405 p 2 ¼
S 1500 h 410 p ½ to 1/4
B 400 u 510 c 8 3/8
B 1000 h 430 p 5 3/8
B 1500 u 390 p 5
S 1500 h 435 c 4 ¼
S 150 sdk 450 p 6 1/2
On a block
S 500 k 420 p 5 vs 439 ½
Beans
B 1000 k 1050 p 12 3/8
B 700 w2 1080 c 7 ½ to 8 1/8
S 2000 h 1060 p 8 ½ to 8 3/8
B 200 k 1100 c 21
B 400 j 1080/1050 ps vs s 1110 c ¼ cr
S 200 h 1080 c 10 ¼ to 10 1/8
B 100 h27 1150 c 37 7/8 vs 1101 1/2
B 1000 h 1060 p 8 ½ vs 1071 1/2
B 2250 h 1060/1050 ps 3 to 3 1/4
S 500 j 1090/1050 ps vs b j 1140 c 9 cr
S 250 h 1040p/1100c strangles 8 3/8
S 300 h 1070 straddles 28 5/8
S 300 h 1060 straddles 32 3/4
S 1000 h 1030 c 16 5/8 to 14 3/8
B 600 k 1140 c vs s k 1020 p 8 db
S 300 n 1200 c 12 1/8
B 1000 k 1050 p 9 5/8 to 12 3/8
B 400 h 1050/1020 ps 2 7/8
B 1000 h 1020 p 3/4
B 400 j 1090/1050 ps vs s 1140 c 7 ½ db
B 500 u 1040 p vs s sd u 1050 p 1 to ½ cr
B 2000 h 1060 p 7 ¼ to 8 1/2
B 2000 w5 1064/1060 ps 3/4
B 200 w5 1070 p 1 5/8
Soymeal
B 200 h 280 p .40
B 250 h 310/320/330 call trees .70
B 500 h 300/310 cs 2.90 vs 299.6
B 500 h 296 p 3.95 vs 298.4
B 500 k 310 c 7.60 to 7.80
B 1500 h 310 c 1.45 to 1.50
B 1500 h 300 c 3.45 to 3.80
B 400 h 300 straddles 11.20
Bean oil
B 200 k 65 c .505
B 500 k 60 c 1.170 vs 5432
B 1000 h 53 p .615 to .970
B 500 h 55 c vs s 1000 h 57 c .115 to .130 db
B 2000 h 60 c .130 to .150
B 500 h 58 c .360 to .365
B 450 n 58/68 cs 1.880
B 1000 h 49 p .090 to .100
B 300 h 47 p .035
B 500 k 5750/6250 cs 1.030
B 300 n 60 c 1.990 to 2.000
B 1000 w2 56/57 cs .165
Wheat
B 2000 h 510 p 2 1/4
B 700 h 600 c 1
S 2000 k 530 p 16 ¾ to 15
B 650 z 700 c vs s 520 p 4 ¼ to 4 ½ db vs 592
B 200 w1 560 c 3 1/8
B 150 u 505p/680c strangles 27 1/8 to 27 1/2
S 300 h 525 p vs s 600 h 510 p 1 ¾ cr
B 100 h 540 straddles 24 ½
B 500 h 535 c vs s 1000 h 555 c ¾ db
S 1000 h 60 c 1.000
B 200 h 530 c 17 1/2
B 200 h 540 c 12 1/2
On a block
S 350 k 550 p 25 vs 548 3/4
Kc wheat
B 2000 k 540 p 17 to 19 1/4
B 500 h 500 p 3/4
B 200 k 520 p 9 3/8 to 9 5/8
S 1000 h 525 p 4 ½ vs 545
B 300 k 590 c vs s k 525 p 2 ¾ vs 556
B 300 h 565 c 6 7/8
B 500 h 540 c 16
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
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