USDA report tomorrow.
Coke reports earnings tomorrow.
The BloombergNEF US Biofuels Quarterly 1Q 2026 depicts a clear, policy-driven reset across U.S. biofuel markets as the expiration of the Blenders Tax Credit and implementation of the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit reshape supply, credit generation, and feedstock economics. Imports of renewable diesel and biodiesel collapsed in 2025, driving a roughly 45% year-over-year drop in biodiesel supply and a 10% decline in total RIN generation, while renewable diesel growth slowed under tighter, carbon-intensity-based incentives. In sharp contrast, renewable jet fuel surged—up about 157% from 2024—led overwhelmingly by domestic production following SAF pathway approvals, while ethanol output remained broadly steady with incremental growth from cellulosic ethanol and biomethane standing out as the only consistently expanding RFS category. Credit markets reflected this transition: D4, D5, and D6 RIN prices softened late in 2025 amid policy uncertainty but rebounded into early 2026 as EPA signaled progress toward multi-year RVOs, while California’s LCFS entered a tightening phase, posting its first credit bank draw in more than four years in 3Q 2025 despite still carrying a sizable surplus above 40 million metric tons. Within the LCFS, bio-based diesel has lost momentum, renewable diesel has flattened, electricity continues steady growth, and alternative jet fuel is the fastest-growing category, with California remaining a key SAF hub. Feedstock trends reinforce the shift: soybean oil has gained share in biodiesel as imports disappeared and canola was squeezed out, waste oils continue to dominate renewable diesel, corn remains the backbone of ethanol, and biomethane feedstocks are shifting toward dairy and animal waste with superior carbon intensity scores. Overall, the report highlights a structural pivot toward domestically produced, policy-compliant fuels—especially SAF—while biodiesel and renewable diesel adjust to a more restrictive incentive regime and LCFS markets move gradually from surplus toward balance.
USDA grain inspections through early February underscore a clear divergence in demand across the grain complex. Corn remains the standout, with inspections rebounding to about 1.31 MMT in the week ending Feb. 5 and year-to-date volumes running nearly 47% above last year, reflecting steady, nearby-driven demand—led by Mexico—that supports basis and spreads but does not yet signal a global breakout. Soybean inspections slipped to roughly 1.14 MMT on the week and remain about 34% behind last year on a YTD basis, highlighting how demand is still episodic and heavily dependent on China timing amid Brazilian harvest pressure. Wheat was the quiet positive, with weekly inspections jumping to around 580k MT and YTD volumes up roughly 18%, pointing to price-competitive flows into secondary destinations that help stabilize the balance sheet but fall short of a structural demand shift. Overall, the data reinforce relative strength in corn, modest stabilization in wheat, and continued caution on soybeans without sustained shipment follow-through.
The U.S.–Argentina trade deal between Trump and Milei is straining the foundations of Mercosur by sidestepping the bloc’s common trade rules and putting Brazil in a difficult position. Brazil is Argentina’s largest trading partner within Mercosur and has seen exports to Argentina surge roughly 55%, but preferential U.S.–Argentina access now threatens that market share. The agreement also supports increased Argentine beef exports to the U.S., benefiting companies with Argentine production capacity and highlighting a broader shift back toward bilateral trade arrangements. The larger issue is not immediate volumes but precedent: if Argentina can strike side deals outside Mercosur rules, the bloc’s cohesion weakens, forcing Brazil to decide whether to defend Mercosur discipline or pursue its own competitive carve-outs.
Corn
B 1000 w2 420 p 7/8
B 1500 k 420p 5 ¼ to 5 1/2
S 400 h 425p/430c strangles 6 1/2
B 1000 n 410 p 5 ½ to 5 3/4
B 100 h 400/380 ps 3 7/8
B 1000 k 410 p 3 to 3 1/8
S 100 sd m 470 c 8
S 2000 h 425 c 6 ¼ to 6 1/8
B 2000 h 440 c 1 to 1 1/8
S 1000 k 435 straddles 24 3/8
S 500 n 420 p 8 3/8
B 1000 h 420 p 1 ½ vs 428
B 1400 k 440 straddles 25 to 25 1/8
S 900 z 475/550 cs vs b z 400 p 8 to 7 7/8 cr
B 1500 h 423 p 2 ½ vs 427 1/2
S 500 k 410 p 2 7/8
S 1500 k 420 p 5 1/8 to 5
B 200 sd k 460 p 12 5/8
B 500 j 460 c vs s 1500 h 450 c 1 5/8
S 2000 n 470 c 10 ¼ to 10
On a block
S 1200 k 420p/460c strangles at 10 vs 437 1/2
Beans
B 3000 h 1080 p 1 ¾ to 2
B 1000 j 1160 c 12 1/8
S 1000 k 1080 p 13 ¾ to 13
B 1500 n 1160 c 32 3/8 to 33 7/8
S 1500 n 1260 c 11 5/8
B 750 sd n 1150/1250 cs vs s k 1250/1350 cs 7 7/8 db
B 1000 h 1100 p vs s h 1140 c 4 ½ vs 1108 1/2
B 1200 h 1070 p 1 1/8 to 1 1/4
B 1000 j 1150/1200 cs vs 1121 ½ against s 1000 h 1090 p vs 1107 ½ paying 4 1/2
B 400 k 1150 c 21
S 650 j 1100/1150 cs 23 3/8 vs 1127
S 1250 k 1180 c 14 1/8 to 13 ¾ vs 1125 3/4
S 200 n 1270 c 10 ¼ vs 1134
B 100 n 930 p 1
B 1000 n 1160/1260 cs 21 ¼ vs 1135
S 100 h 1130 straddles 30 ½ vs 1110
S 250 h 1100 p 7
B 2500 n 1250/1350 cs 8 3/8
B 500 n 1100 p 25 ½ to 26 1/2
S 300 k 1200 c 11 ½
B 200 n 1100 c 64 3/8 vs 1114
B 300 k 1120 p 15 3/8
S 250 m 1100 p 20
B 200 nx +60/+100 cso cs 9
S 500 j 1140 c 20 1/8
B 1000 n 1200 c 12 1/2
B 300 n 1200/1300 cs vs s x 1000 p paying even
On a block
B 500 k 1070p/1200c strangles 20 3/8 vs 1126 1/2
Soymeal
B 500 h 305/315 cs 1.10
S 475 j 315 c 3.60
B 300 k 320 c vs s k 290 p .60 db vs 303.0
B 200 h 295 p 2.65 vs 297.2
B 300 h 295 p 2.40
S 500 k 320 c 5.10 to 4.75
B 300 h 300 c vs s 900 h 310 c .50 to .60 db
S 200 n 325 c 8.85 to 8.75 vs 309.5
B 600 n 300/295 ps 2.20
B 250 j 295 p 4.30
On a block
B 300 m 310 c 10.90 vs 307.5
Bean oil
B 300 k 60 c 2.045
B 500 h 5250 c 4.020 vs 5640
B 200 k 60 c 1.930 vs 5698
S 500 k 58 c 2.625 to 2.610
B 2000 k 65 c .750 to .920
B 500 k 58 c 2.250 to 2.610
B 350 u 55/60 cs 1.810 vs 5608
B 300 k 5950/6150 cs vs s k 5350 p .845 cr
S 1000 k 55/60 cs 2.070 vs 5700
S 150 j 56p/58c strangles 3.770
B 600 n 50 p .960 to 1.020
B 200 z 55/65 cs vs s 45 p 1.950 db
B 450 z 55/65 cs vs s 40 p 2.550 db
B 150 k 65 c vs s 450 k 75 c .250 db
B 400 h 55 p .595 vs 5615
S 500 k 55/60 cs 2.070 vs 5697
S 1100 k 59 c 2.160 to 2.150 vs 5697
S 1000 k 56 c 3.430 vs 5698
S 800 k 60/70 cs 1.534 vs 5702
B 500 h 5550 c 1.480 to 1.600
B 500 h 58 c .490 vs 5926
B 200 k 65 c vs s h 58 c .320 db
B 200 h 57 c .885
S 750 h 55 p .500 to .480
S 250 h 5650 c .970
Wheat
S 1000 k 500 p 5 ¾ to 5 1/4
S 250 j 570 c 6 3/4
B 150 k 510p/570c strangles 19 1/2
S 1000 w2 520 p 2 1/2
S 200 n 520 p 17 3/4
S 200 n 520 p 16 7/8
S 200 h 545 c 3 3/4
Kc wheat
B 200 520 p 4
B 200 h 515p/530c strangles 10 3/8 vs 529
| Corn | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| C H6 | 428.75 | 0.00 | 430 | 14.7 | -0.10 | 2.75 | 3.97 | 3.20 | 11.85 | 11 |
| C J6 | 437.00 | 0.00 | 435 | 14.5 | -0.20 | 2.75 | 3.99 | 3.13 | 11.37 | 46 |
| C K6 | 437.00 | 0.00 | 435 | 15.8 | -0.30 | 2.75 | 4.35 | 3.13 | 11.37 | 74 |
| C M6 | 443.75 | 0.00 | 445 | 16.3 | -0.30 | 3.00 | 4.56 | 3.10 | 11.08 | 102 |
| C N6 | 443.75 | 0.00 | 445 | 17.7 | -0.30 | 3.00 | 4.95 | 3.10 | 11.08 | 137 |
| C U6 | 442.75 | 0.00 | 445 | 19.7 | 0.00 | 2.25 | 5.49 | 2.75 | 9.87 | 193 |
| Beans | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| S H6 | 1110.75 | 0.00 | 1110 | 14.9 | -2.80 | 10.25 | 10.43 | 9.92 | 14.18 | 11 |
| S J6 | 1125.00 | 0.00 | 1130 | 15.2 | -1.70 | 9.75 | 10.77 | 10.04 | 14.17 | 46 |
| S K6 | 1125.00 | 0.00 | 1130 | 15.6 | -1.40 | 9.75 | 11.06 | 10.04 | 14.17 | 74 |
| S M6 | 1136.50 | 0.00 | 1140 | 15.4 | -1.20 | 10.00 | 11.02 | 9.69 | 13.54 | 102 |
| S N6 | 1136.50 | 0.00 | 1140 | 15.6 | -1.00 | 10.00 | 11.17 | 9.69 | 13.54 | 137 |
| SRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| W H6 | 528.75 | 0.00 | 530 | 22.1 | -1.20 | 6.00 | 7.36 | 6.99 | 21.00 | 11 |
| W J6 | 538.75 | 0.00 | 540 | 21.9 | -0.90 | 5.50 | 7.43 | 6.50 | 19.15 | 46 |
| W K6 | 538.75 | 0.00 | 540 | 22.0 | -0.80 | 5.50 | 7.47 | 6.50 | 19.15 | 74 |
| W M6 | 549.00 | 0.00 | 550 | 22.4 | -0.60 | 4.75 | 7.75 | 6.24 | 18.05 | 102 |
| W N6 | 549.00 | 0.00 | 550 | 23.5 | -0.60 | 4.75 | 8.13 | 6.24 | 18.05 | 137 |
| HRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| KWH6 | 528.75 | 0.00 | 530 | 22.0 | -1.70 | 7.75 | 7.33 | 7.37 | 22.13 | 11 |
| KWJ6 | 541.75 | 0.00 | 540 | 22.3 | -1.10 | 7.75 | 7.61 | 7.06 | 20.68 | 46 |
| KWK6 | 541.75 | 0.00 | 540 | 22.2 | -1.00 | 7.75 | 7.58 | 7.06 | 20.68 | 74 |
| KWN6 | 555.00 | 0.00 | 555 | 23.5 | -0.60 | 6.00 | 8.22 | 6.94 | 19.85 | 137 |
| KWU6 | 570.00 | 0.00 | 570 | 24.4 | -0.40 | 6.50 | 8.76 | 6.78 | 18.89 | 193 |
| Bean Oil | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| BOH6 | 56.69 | 0.00 | 56.5 | 27.5 | 0.10 | 1.25 | 0.98 | 0.84 | 23.48 | 11 |
| BOJ6 | 57.17 | 0.00 | 57 | 30.4 | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 0.82 | 22.87 | 46 |
| BOK6 | 57.17 | 0.00 | 57 | 30.3 | 1.00 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 0.82 | 22.87 | 74 |
| BON6 | 57.36 | 0.00 | 57.5 | 28.9 | 0.70 | 1.15 | 1.04 | 0.79 | 21.86 | 137 |
| Meal | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| SMH6 | 297.80 | 0.00 | 300 | 18.0 | -2.10 | 5.40 | 3.38 | 3.86 | 20.59 | 11 |
| SMJ6 | 302.70 | 0.00 | 305 | 18.2 | -1.80 | 5.30 | 3.47 | 3.54 | 18.57 | 46 |
| SMK6 | 302.70 | 0.00 | 305 | 18.4 | -1.80 | 5.30 | 3.51 | 3.54 | 18.57 | 74 |
| SMN6 | 307.50 | 0.00 | 310 | 18.2 | -1.10 | 8.70 | 3.53 | 3.41 | 17.61 |
137
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sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
vols bloomberg
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