President Trump is reportedly considering whether to withdraw the U.S. from the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and has asked advisers to explain why the country should remain in the pact. Because the agreement underpins extensive trade flows across North America, particularly in agriculture, a withdrawal could have significant consequences. Mexico is a leading buyer of U.S. corn, pork, and dairy, while Canada is a major partner in dairy, ethanol, and processed food trade. Exiting the deal could reintroduce tariffs, disrupt integrated supply chains, and create substantial uncertainty across grain, livestock, and broader commodity markets.
The January jobs report was stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls rising 130k versus a 70k forecast and the unemployment rate falling to 4.3% even as participation increased. Private payrolls led the gain, jumping 172k, while annual benchmark revisions showed a downward adjustment of 862k jobs through March 2025, slightly less negative than initially estimated. The BLS said extreme weather had no clear impact on the data. Overall, the report supports the Fed’s decision to stay on pause and reduces concerns about labor market weakness, though policymakers will look to upcoming CPI data for confirmation on the inflation outlook, with many economists still expecting.
Kansas City Fed President Schmid struck a hawkish tone, arguing that the labor market only needs roughly 40–50k jobs per month to remain stable and showing no sign of cyclical weakness last year. With inflation still near 3%, he supports maintaining restrictive policy and said he does not see clear evidence that current interest rates are significantly restraining the economy. Schmid warned that additional rate cuts could allow inflation to persist longer, noting that demand still appears to be running ahead of supply improvements. While productivity gains could eventually support stronger growth without fueling inflation, he said the economy is not there yet. He also suggested there may be room to reduce bank reserve demand and shrink the Fed’s balance sheet over time.
Pilgrim's Pride reported stronger-than-expected revenue in its latest quarter, but earnings came in slightly below forecasts as margins remained pressured. From an agriculture standpoint, results reflect steady poultry demand but continued sensitivity to feed costs, particularly corn and soybean meal, which are major inputs. While pricing and volumes supported the top line, profitability continues to hinge on grain markets and operating efficiencies across the chicken complex.
U.S. ethanol stocks rose 0.4% on the week to 25.247 million barrels, slightly below the Bloomberg survey average of 25.485 million, while production rebounded sharply to 1.110 million barrels per day from 0.956 mbpd the prior week, coming in well above expectations and marking a 16.1% weekly increase. The stock build was driven primarily by a large increase on the East Coast, while Gulf and West Coast inventories declined modestly and Midwest stocks were slightly lower. The strong recovery in production, combined with only a small overall stock build, suggests improved plant operating rates and steady demand, keeping the broader ethanol balance sheet relatively stable despite the headline inventory increase.
McDonald’s delivered mixed quarterly results, with modest revenue strength and stable earnings, but softer U.S. same-store sales as value-conscious consumers continue trading down. From an agriculture perspective, steady traffic and heavy promotional activity suggest continued high-throughput demand for key inputs like beef trim for burgers, potatoes for fries, wheat for buns, dairy for cheese, and coffee. However, margin pressure and consumer price sensitivity indicate limited pricing power, which could restrain how much higher input costs can be passed through the supply chain. International strength remains supportive for global beef and poultry demand, but slower U.S. traffic growth reinforces the broader theme of cautious consumer spending, which is relevant for domestic protein demand and feed usage expectations.
Corn
S 1000 u 420p/465c strangles 29 5/8
S 200 z27 500 c 25 ¾ to 25 ½ vs 471 1/2
B 300 z 330 p 5/8
S 1500 k 450 c vs b 1500 h 460 c 7 3/8 cr
B 3000 u 375 p 2 1/2
S 150 sd j 470/440 ps 11 ½
S 100 nz -15 cso p 7 1/4
B 1000 u 420/375/350 broken fly 9 1/4
B 500 z 440p/480c strangles 39 1/4
B 1000 h 430/435 cs 1 ¼ vs 426 1/2
S 1000 h27 430p/540c strangles 22 to 21 1/2
S 1000 h 435 c 7/8
B 4000 h 435/440 cs 1/2
B 300 z 470/520 cs vs s 420 p 1 3/8 db
B 200 n 455/480 s vs s 420 p 2 cr
B 1000 n 430p/470c strangle vs s 1000 h 425p/435c strangles 18 1/8 db
S 150 sd m 450/425 ps 7 3/4
B 300 h27 470/550 cs vs s 430 p 9 db
B 100 z 440 p 19 3/8
S 1000 h 421p/439c strangles 1 7/8
B 1000 h 435/440 cs 7/8
Beans
B 700 u 1180 c 29 vs 1108
S 1000 j 1120 straddle 50 ½ to 49
S 350 k 1130 straddles 64 1/2
B 100 x27 1090/1000 ps vs s 1160 c 3 ½ cr
B 1125 sd m 1140 c 22
S 100 x 1540 c 4 1/4
B 1250 n 1300 c 11 1/8
S 1000 k 1050p and 2000 k 1200 c 28 ¼ cr
B 500 nx +60 cso c 13
B 400 xn +60 cso c 5
S 1000 h 1120 p 12 1/2
B 1000 q 1180 c vs s sd q 1140 c 3 db
B 500 n 1200 c 25
S 150 x 1180 c 50
B 1000 k 1200/1260 cs 2 1/8
B 500 n 1250/1350 cs vs s 1050 p ¾ db
B 2000 n 1200/1260 cs 12 ¾ vs 1145
B 150 sd j 1120 c 13 ¼
S 250 h27 1250 c 20 7/8
B 200 x 1080 p 42 1/4
S 300 h27 1030 p 18 5/8
S 500 k 1100 p 16 3/4
S 2000 k 1200 c 13 to 12 1/2
S 250 x 1030 p 21
S 1500 k 1200 and 1260 c vs b 3000 k 1300 c 11 3/8 cr
Soymeal
B 100 k 295p/315c strangles 11.60
B 500 k 320 c 6.30 to 6.40
B 1175 n 300 p 9.25
B 1000 h 310 c .90 to 1.00
Bean oil
B 300 h 5775 c .745
S 1000 k 65 c 1.005
B 500 h 5650 p vs s 1000 h 55 p .175 db
S 250 h 57/59 cs .715
S 250 j 5450 p 1.025
B 200 k 5650/5350 ps vs s n 63 c .155 cr
B 1000 k 56/60 cs 1.670 to 1.685
B 500 n 60/65 cs 1.390
B 500 k 58 c 3.085 to 3.130
B 200 k 52 p .900
S 750 n 54 p 2.190
B 200 k 53 p 1.120 to 1.135
S 1500 k 57 c 3.400 vs 5759
Wheat
S 400 j 520p/565c 14
B 500 k 575 c 9 vs 537 1/2
B 400 k 575 c 8 7/8 vs 537 3/4
S 750 h 520 p 2 7/8 to 2 3/4
S 200 h 530 straddles 14 3/8
B 200 h 540/550 cs vs s 520 p even
B 200 h 565 c 7/8
B 200 h 520 p 2 3/8
Kc wheat
B 1250 j 560 c 13 1/2
B 125 z 585/660 cs vs s 480 p 18 1/8
B 200 k 590 c 9 3/8 vs 548 1/2
B 250 k 600 c 7 ¾ vs 549 1/2
On a block
B 1485 j 550/600 cs 14 db vs 553
| Corn | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| C H6 | 427.50 | -1.25 | 430 | 13.1 | -0.20 | 4.25 | 3.53 | 3.13 | 11.64 | 9 |
| C J6 | 436.50 | -0.75 | 435 | 14.4 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.96 | 3.01 | 10.95 | 44 |
| C K6 | 436.50 | -0.75 | 435 | 15.9 | 0.30 | 4.00 | 4.37 | 3.01 | 10.95 | 72 |
| C M6 | 444.25 | -0.50 | 445 | 16.4 | 0.20 | 4.00 | 4.59 | 2.95 | 10.53 | 100 |
| C N6 | 444.25 | -0.50 | 445 | 17.5 | 0.10 | 4.00 | 4.90 | 2.95 | 10.53 | 135 |
| C U6 | 444.75 | 1.25 | 445 | 19.7 | 0.10 | 4.00 | 5.52 | 2.37 | 8.46 | 191 |
| Beans | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| S H6 | 1124.00 | 1.50 | 1120 | 14.7 | 0.20 | 15.25 | 10.41 | 9.55 | 13.48 | 9 |
| S J6 | 1139.50 | 2.00 | 1140 | 15.9 | 0.20 | 15.00 | 11.41 | 9.75 | 13.58 | 44 |
| S K6 | 1139.50 | 2.00 | 1140 | 16.5 | 0.20 | 15.00 | 11.84 | 9.75 | 13.58 | 72 |
| S M6 | 1152.50 | 3.00 | 1150 | 16.2 | 0.20 | 14.25 | 11.76 | 9.44 | 13.00 | 100 |
| S N6 | 1152.50 | 3.00 | 1150 | 16.4 | 0.30 | 14.25 | 11.91 | 9.44 | 13.00 | 135 |
| SRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| W H6 | 537.25 | 9.00 | 535 | 22.5 | 1.90 | 12.00 | 7.61 | 7.32 | 21.64 | 9 |
| W J6 | 545.25 | 7.25 | 545 | 21.6 | 0.90 | 10.75 | 7.42 | 6.71 | 19.54 | 44 |
| W K6 | 545.25 | 7.25 | 545 | 21.9 | 0.80 | 10.75 | 7.52 | 6.71 | 19.54 | 72 |
| W M6 | 554.50 | 6.25 | 555 | 22.3 | 0.70 | 9.75 | 7.79 | 6.40 | 18.32 | 100 |
| W N6 | 554.50 | 6.25 | 555 | 23.3 | 0.50 | 9.75 | 8.14 | 6.40 | 18.32 | 135 |
| HRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| KWH6 | 538.50 | 8.00 | 540 | 23.1 | 2.50 | 12.50 | 7.84 | 7.44 | 21.95 | 9 |
| KWJ6 | 551.75 | 7.75 | 550 | 22.6 | 1.40 | 12.50 | 7.85 | 7.13 | 20.52 | 44 |
| KWK6 | 551.75 | 7.75 | 550 | 22.7 | 1.20 | 12.50 | 7.89 | 7.13 | 20.52 | 72 |
| KWN6 | 564.25 | 7.00 | 565 | 23.7 | 0.80 | 12.50 | 8.42 | 7.00 | 19.69 | 135 |
| KWU6 | 578.50 | 6.75 | 580 | 24.5 | 0.60 | 12.50 | 8.93 | 6.81 | 18.70 | 191 |
| Bean Oil | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| BOH6 | 57.05 | -0.22 | 57 | 25.9 | 0.80 | 0.82 | 0.93 | 0.82 | 22.92 | 9 |
| BOJ6 | 57.50 | -0.24 | 57.5 | 30.2 | -0.10 | 0.81 | 1.09 | 0.81 | 22.45 | 44 |
| BOK6 | 57.50 | -0.24 | 57.5 | 31.0 | 0.00 | 0.81 | 1.12 | 0.81 | 22.45 | 72 |
| BON6 | 57.69 | -0.22 | 57.5 | 29.4 | 0.10 | 0.78 | 1.07 | 0.78 | 21.49 | 135 |
| Meal | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| SMH6 | 303.00 | 2.20 | 305 | 19.2 | 0.80 | 6.00 | 3.66 | 3.60 | 18.86 | 9 |
| SMJ6 | 308.00 | 2.20 | 310 | 19.0 | 0.50 | 5.80 | 3.69 | 3.27 | 16.86 | 44 |
| SMK6 | 308.00 | 2.20 | 310 | 19.4 | 0.70 | 5.80 | 3.76 | 3.27 | 16.86 | 72 |
| SMN6 | 312.60 | 1.90 | 315 | 19.0 | 0.50 | 5.20 | 3.74 | 3.14 | 15.93 | 135 |
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
vols bloomberg
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