USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum projections are scheduled for release tomorrow morning, February 19, 2026, typically around 8:30–9:00 AM CST. The report will provide initial 2025/26 supply and demand balance sheets, including planted acreage and ending stocks estimates for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Current trade expectations center around corn ending stocks near 1.25–1.35 billion bushels, soybean ending stocks around 240–290 million bushels, wheat ending stocks near 625–675 million bushels, with corn acreage roughly 89–90.5 million acres and soybean acreage about 87–88.5 million acres. The release will be closely watched for its implications on feed demand, crush assumptions, and biofuel-driven soybean oil outlooks.
The January FOMC minutes show a divided Federal Reserve, with officials agreeing to hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% but split on what comes next. Several participants said rate cuts could resume later this year if inflation continues to decline toward the 2% target, while others argued policy should remain on hold until there is clearer evidence that disinflation is firmly back on track. A few even suggested that rate hikes might be necessary if inflation stays elevated, pushing for a more “two-sided” policy outlook. While inflation is expected to ease gradually, many officials see meaningful risk that it remains persistently above target, and although labor market risks appear more balanced, the overall tone of the minutes reflects caution and uncertainty about the timing and direction of future moves.
Brazil’s latest economist survey shows expectations for modest economic growth of around 1.8% in both 2026 and 2027, with inflation projected near 3.9% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027—close to the upper end of the central bank’s target range. The Selic policy rate is seen easing gradually to 12.25% by the end of 2026 and 10.50% by the end of 2027, indicating a cautious cutting cycle that keeps real interest rates relatively high. The Brazilian real is forecast around 5.50 per dollar, suggesting a stable-to-slightly weak currency backdrop. Overall, the outlook points to slow but stable growth, controlled inflation, and a policy environment that remains supportive of Brazil’s export competitiveness.
CoBank expects U.S. farmers to plant more soybeans in 2026, shifting acreage away from corn, wheat, and other crops due to stronger recent price rallies and improved relative profitability. Soybean acreage is projected to increase 5.9% year-over-year to 86 million acres, while corn acreage is forecast to decline 4.8% to 94 million acres and spring wheat acreage to fall 1% to 9.89 million acres. In addition to price incentives, normal crop rotation considerations are also expected to influence planting decisions.
The EPA is expected to send its proposed 2026 Renewable Fuel Standard blending volumes to the White House this week, advancing the rule into final interagency review before public release. These mandates determine required ethanol and biomass-based diesel blending levels and are a key demand driver for corn and soybean oil markets. The proposal is highly significant for agriculture and energy markets, as stronger volumes would support biofuel feedstock demand and margins, while more conservative targets could pressure balance sheets and increase short-term market volatility.
Walmart and Deere report earnings tomorrow.
Corn
B 150 n 420p/470c strangles 19
S 450 k 440 c 10 ½ covered vs 436
S 1500 n 450 c 17 1/8 to 17 covered vs 444 1/2
S 100 sd z 460 straddles 37 1/4
B 2500 n 420 p vs s h 410 p 5 3/8 db
B 350 m 460 c 9 5/8
S 650 sd q 460 c vs b 650 m 460 c collecting 13 1/4
B 500 u 500 c 10 1/4
B 100 z 375 p 2 1/2
S 2000 h 430 c 1 to 7/8
B 500 n 440/400 ps vs s k 420 p 8 1/8 cr
B 200 n 500 c 5 3/8
B 500 k 420 p 5 3/8
S 175 z 440p/480c strangles 40 5/8 vs 458
S 250 z 500 c vs b u 500 c 20 cr
B 400 h27 430p/540c strangles vs s u 390p/510c strangles paying 10 1/4
Beans
S 1000 k 1100/1080 ps 4 ¾ vs 1152 1/4
B 1000 k 1100/1050 ps 8 1/2
B 250 m 1100 p 13 3/4
S 250 m 1160 p 35 3/8
B 500 sd n 1150/1250 cs 18 ¾ to 19
S 1000 k 1080 p 8 1/8
S 2000 k 1150 p 36 ½ to 35 1/2
S 250 x 1200 c 30
S 600 q 1500/1600 cs 1 1/4
S 275 n 1600 c 1 1/4
B 500 w4 1160/1190 cs 3 5/8
S 500 n 1200 c 29 3/8 vs 1151 3/4
B 150 k 1180/1250 cs 14 3/8
B 600 nx +50 cso c 18 to 22
B 1500 nx +70/+110 cs 6 3/4
B 1000 nx +80/+140 cs 7 3/4
B 500 nx +150 c 3 1/4
S 1000 nx +70 c 13 ¾ to 13 ½ covered vs 47
S 1000 nx +100 c 8 1/8 covered vs 47
S 250 j 1150 p 23
B 500 j 1100 p 5 to 5 1/2
B 1000 h 1120 p 1 ¾ to 2
B 1000 k 1080 p 7 ¾ to 8 1/8
B 250 m 1060 p 5 1/2
B 250 m 1080 p 8 1/4
S 250 m 1140 p 26 1/4
S 250 x 1000 p 12 3/4
B 250 x 1010 p 14 5/8
S 250 n 1140 p 32 3/8
B 500 n 1080 p 12 1/4
B 250 n 1060 p 8 3/8
B 1500 j 1180/1230 cs 10
B 250 nx +100/+150 cs 4 ¾ to 5
Soymeal
B 100 k 310 c 12.35 vs 309.0
B 200 h 315 c.25
S 300 n 305/300 ps 2.10
Bean oil
B 2500 n 51/56 ps .720 to .760
B 1000 n 61/66 cs 1.470 vs 5925
B 1000 n 6150/6650 cs 1.415 vs 5925
B 1000 j 58/55 ps 1.050 vs 5925
B 500 h 58/5650 ps .260 to .275
S 600 k 57/60/62/65 call condors .610
B 500 z 65 c 3.050
B 2000 n 70 c 1.360 vs 5900
S 2000 k 58 c vs b 2000 k 64/70 cs collecting 2.780 vs 5900
B 1000 k 65 c 1.310 to 1.450
S 1250 k 59 c vs b j 59 c .820 cr
S 500 n 58/68 cs 3.080 to 3.060
S 250 j 5650 p 1.400
S 500 h 59 c .315 to .305
S 250 k 62 c 2.150
S 1500 j 65/70 cs .500
B 100 k 6350 c 1.885 vs 5925
B 1000 k 65 c 1.410 to 1.530
S 1500 k 62 c 2.210 to 2.095
B 300 k 61/6550 cs 1.040
S 200 h 58 c .800
S 200 k 5350 p 1.050
S 200 n 58/60 cs .840
Wheat
S 1600 k 575 c vs b 3200 k 625 c 3 7/8 to 3 ¾ cr vs 550
B 500 h 550 c 3/4
B 100 k 740 c 3/4
B 100 j 500 p 1 3/8
B 300 h 555 c 1 7/8
B 500 k 500 p 3 5/8
S 300 k 540/500 ps 12 7/8 vs 550
B 1000 z 680 c vs s z 520 p 5 1/8 db vs 587
Kc wheat
B 100 k 600 c 10 1/8
B 2000 j 585/625 cs and j 545 p 16 ½ to 16 7/8 db vs 559 1/4
B 300 h 540/520 ps 2
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
vols bloomberg
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