Today was LTD for March grain options.
Following the Supreme Court’s decision blocking the use of IEEPA for sweeping tariffs, President Trump quickly pivoted by implementing a 10% global tariff under Section 122 while keeping all existing Section 232 and 301 tariffs in place. He emphasized that the administration has multiple alternative legal tools available — including Sections 232, 122, 201, 301, and potentially Section 338 — and signaled an even more aggressive tariff posture ahead. New Section 301 investigations are expected to begin, with a five-month probe period that could set the stage for additional country-specific tariffs later this year. Trump also indicated that any required tariff refunds would likely be tied up in extended litigation, while trade agreements negotiated under IEEPA may need to be restructured, though he stressed that India remains unchanged. Treasury Secretary Bessent added that revenue from the combined use of Sections 122, 232, and 301 is expected to keep 2026 tariff income roughly unchanged, suggesting the administration intends to fully offset the loss of IEEPA authority through alternative mechanisms.
December PCE inflation came in firm, with headline prices rising 0.4% M/M and 2.9% Y/Y, while core PCE — the Fed’s preferred gauge — also increased 0.4% on the month and 3.0% year-over-year, broadly in line with what Chair Powell had signaled. Personal income and spending were steady, but inflation remains above target, reinforcing the Fed’s bias to hold rates as labor market risks appear to have stabilized. Meanwhile, Q4 GDP slowed sharply to 1.4%, partly due to the government shutdown, though underlying consumer and investment activity remained resilient; price measures within GDP were firm. February S&P Global Flash PMIs softened across manufacturing and services, pointing to the slowest growth in ten months and suggesting Q1 GDP tracking closer to 1.5%, though some of the slowdown may prove temporary. Overall, the data reflect a cooling but not collapsing economy, with inflation still sticky enough to keep the Fed cautious in the near term.
February Michigan Consumer Sentiment edged up slightly to 56.6 from 56.4 but remained below expectations, reflecting still-weak confidence levels. Current conditions improved modestly, while expectations were little changed, reinforcing the view that consumers see little meaningful shift in the economic backdrop. Notably, short-term inflation expectations fell sharply to 3.4% from 4.0%, while five-year expectations held steady at 3.3%, offering some relief on the inflation psychology front. Despite sentiment lingering near historically low levels, economists at Oxford expect consumer spending to remain resilient, projecting consumption growth of roughly 2.5% in 2026.
Corn
B 1000 z 500 c 18 3/8
B 500 w1 435 straddles 9 5/8
B 100 z 530 c 12
B 500 n 455/480 cs vs s 420 p 3/8 to ¼ cr
B 4000 n 500 c vs s 2000 n 480 c 2 5/8 to 2 7/8 db
B 300 m 460/490 cs vs s 430 p 7/8 cr
B 500 k 430 p 9 5/8
S 900 n 450 c 17 ¾ to 17 5/8 vs 445 1/2
B 1500 n 465/525 cs 9 ¼ to 9 3/8
B 750 w5 445 c 3/4
B 500 z 525 c 12 3/8
B 350 nu +10 cso c 3 1/4
B 2000 k 480/530 cs 1 7/8
B 1000 j 440 c vs s sd j 465 c 2 db
S 1000 j 470 c 1 to 7/8
B 500 j 470 c 1 1/8
S 500 k 435 p 10 ¾ to 10 1/2
B 3000 k 470/510 cs 2 ½ to 2 5/8
B 2000 k 480/530 cs 1 7/8 vs 439 1/2
B 5000 k 480/530 cs 1 7/8 vs 439 3/4
On a block
S 500 n 430p/480c strangles 20
Beans
S 4000 k 1150 p 38 ½ to 35
S 200 n 1220 c 30
S 2000 k 1140 p 33 ½ to 31 1/2
B 1000 k 1050 p 4 1/8
B 400 w4 1160/1170 cs 2 1/4
B 200 x 1040 p 25 1/2
S 250 q 1600 c 2 1/8
B 1000 n 1200 c 32 3/4
B 1000 j 1080 p 3 ½ to 5
S 250 n 1120 p 22
S 250 j 1160 p 23 5/8
B 250 nx +150 cso c 4 1/4
B 300 n 1080/1040 ps 6
S 150 k 1150 p 28
S 500 k 1150 p 27 7/8 vs 1161
Soymeal
B 400 n 310/300 ps 4.40
S 1400 k 340/370 cs 2.40 to 2.35
B 500 k 370 c 1.35
B 300 j 325/345 cs 3.00
B 300 j 320/290 ps 9.60
S 400 j 315/325 cs 3.65 to 3.60
B 400 j 310 c 10.75
S 750 n 300/280 ps 4.05
B 700 j 305 p 3.50 to 3.95
B 100 k 310/320 cs 4.25
Bean oil
S 5000 k 65 c 1.480 to 1.340
B 500 k 70 c .720
B 1000 k 57 p 2.130 to 2.145
S 1000 n 54 p 1.680
S 1000 n 54 p 1.870
B 175 q 58/53 ps vs s 64 c .600 db
B 100 k 63/68 cs vs s 55 p .435 cr
B 1000 k 70 c .710 to .725
S 1000 k 56 p 1.670 to 1.610
S 400 n 54 c vs b 1000 n 65 c 1.680 cr vs 5975
Wheat
B 1200 u 610/560 ps 26 3/8
S 1000 z 700 c 24 ¾ to 24 5/8
B 800 n 640 c vs s 520 p 8 db vs 580 1/2
B 400 j 565 p vs s 800 j 530 p 8 1/8 to 8 1/4
B 700 k 605 c vs s k 545 p 3 ¾ db vs 575
B 500 k 625 c 10 to 10 1/8 vs 575 1/2
B 800 w4 585/605 cs 4 7/8 vs 576 1/2
B 200 k 500 p 2
B 1000 j 600 c 10 ½ to 12
S 500 k 640 c 7 3/8 vs 575 1/2
B 500 w4 560 p 3 1/4
B 300 k 585 c 23 1/8 vs 579
B 350 j 570/600 cs 12
S 300 k 550 c 42 1/4
B 800 w4 585/605 cs 4 7/8 vs 576 1/2
S 200 n 620 c 24 1/8
B 1000 j 600 c 12 to 12 1/8 vs 579
S 250 k 540/560 cs 12 1/2
B 250 j 580 c 19 3/8
B 800 k 570/550 ps 9 1/2
B 1000 n 570/550 ps 9 ½ to 9 5/8
S 150 k 560 p 18
S 750 u 695 c 16 ½ vs 593 1/4
S 500 k 550/520 ps 8 5/8
On a block
S 900 k 575 c 23 5/8 vs 573 1/4
Kc wheat
B 300 j 570 c vs s k 610 c 11 db
B 100 k 750/800 cs 7/8
B 250 j 525 p 2
On a block
S 500 k 600 c 21 ¼ vs 588 1/2
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
