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CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

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U.S. officials emphasized that countries which negotiated bilateral tariff arrangements with the United States are expected to fully honor those commitments, reinforcing that the administration views the agreements as binding and enforceable. At the same time, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer clarified that the country-specific tariff deals are distinct from the newly announced 15% global tariff baseline implemented by Donald Trump. In other words, the bilateral agreements remain in place and are not automatically superseded by the across-the-board 15% tariff, which was introduced under separate statutory authority. This signals the administration is attempting to maintain negotiated market-access gains while simultaneously applying a broader uniform tariff framework.

 

Indian trade officials have postponed their planned trip to the United States this week, which had been aimed at finalizing an interim trade agreement, following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling against President Trump’s use of certain tariff authorities. The delay reflects uncertainty around the future structure of U.S. trade policy after the court decision, as both sides reassess the legal and practical implications before moving forward with negotiations.

 

Goldman Sachs analysts said that after the Supreme Court struck down the administration’s IEEPA-based tariffs, most Asian economies are likely to face slightly lower effective U.S. tariff rates under the revised trade structure. China is expected to see the largest decline compared to the previous emergency-based framework, while other Asian exporters could also experience modest relief. The change reflects a shift away from broad emergency tariff authority toward narrower statutory tools, resulting in a somewhat lower overall tariff burden across the region.

 

President Trump said an Indo-Pacific energy meeting will be held in Tokyo in March, aimed at strengthening coordination on energy security, supply chains, and broader economic cooperation among regional partners.

 

The European Parliament’s trade leadership is proposing to freeze ratification of the EU-U.S. trade agreement until the Trump administration provides clearer details on its broader trade policy framework. The pause reflects concern that the newly announced 15% global tariff baseline and shifting U.S. tariff strategy could conflict with or undermine negotiated concessions. Lawmakers want greater clarity before formally advancing the agreement, signaling rising political caution in Europe and adding uncertainty to the timeline for transatlantic trade cooperation.

 

Fed officials struck a cautious tone on policy, emphasizing patience amid lingering inflation risks and rising uncertainty. Cleveland Fed President Hammack (2026 voter) said inflation has made “amazing progress” but remains above target, noting policy is only modestly restrictive and that the economy proved stronger than expected late last year. She added tariffs could further complicate the inflation outlook and reinforced that the Fed can be very patient when considering future rate cuts. Dallas Fed President Logan (2026 voter) similarly stressed ongoing uncertainty — particularly from the tech sector — and said she supported January’s decision to hold rates, adding she is not fully convinced inflation is on a clear path back to 2%. Logan noted the Supreme Court ruling has added uncertainty and that upside inflation risks remain, though she believes policy is well-positioned to respond. Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Musalem (2028 voter) said potential Fed Chair candidate Kevin Warsh would be a strong choice and suggested that if new Trump tariffs are one-for-one, they would not materially alter the outlook. He also said the Court ruling may introduce a temporary period of uncertainty but views current policy as appropriately positioned, noting the real federal funds rate is at or below neutral.

 

image-20260223062223-1

 

Overnight options activity 

Corn

S 400 k 440 c 11 3/8 

B 100 k 435/425 ps 4 1/8 

 

Beans

B 300 w4 1110 p 7/8 

B 300 w2 1110p/1190c strangles 10

B 100 n 1260 c 16 1/4

S 850 k 1150 p 35

B 500 j 1100 p 6

 

Bean oil

S 100 w2 58 p .600

S 350 j 65 c .860

B 100 w1 57 p .380

 

On a block

B 500 w4 61/6250 cs .345

 

Wheat

B 250 k 600 c vs s s 500 j 540 c 6 ¾ db

B 100 k 640/660 cs 2 3/8 

 

Open interest changes

Corn

Dec 500 call buy, may 480/530 call spread buy, july 465/525 call spread buy and ay 470/510 call spreads buys were new

 

Beans

May 1150 put sale and may 1140 put sales were new....juluy 1200 call buy was closing

 

Soymeal

May 340/370 call spread sale was rolling a short

 

Bean oil

May 65 call sale and may 70 call buys were closing....may 57 put buy, july 54 put sale and may 56 put sales were new

 

Wheat 

April 610/560 put spread buy and april 600 call buys were new...dec 700 call sale was closing

 

Live cattle 

April 230 put sale was closing....oct 232/226 put spreads buy was rolling a long

 

Feeder cattle 

May 390 call sale was new

 

Cvol

Ags 19.48% up .45%

Corn 15.86% up .75%

Beans 17.60% down .05%

Soymeal 22.26% up .68%

Bean oil 36.70% down .38%

Wheat 29.46% up .33% (6 month high)

Feeder cattle 18.06% up 1.04%

Live cattle 17.67% up 1.18%

Lean hogs 18.32% down .31%

Class 3 milk 24.23% down .47%

 

Corn

image-20260223062223-2

Beans

image-20260223062223-3

Soymeal

image-20260223062223-4

Bean oil

image-20260223062223-5

Wheat

image-20260223062223-6

Kc wheat

image-20260223062224-7

Miax wheat

image-20260223062224-8

Oats

image-20260223062224-9

Rough rice

image-20260223062224-10

Crush

image-20260223062224-11

Feeder cattle

image-20260223062224-12

Live cattle 

image-20260223062224-13

Lean hogs

image-20260223062224-14

sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
charts bloomberg

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