CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

 

In tonight’s 2026 State of the Union address, President Donald Trump is expected to frame agriculture within his broader economic and trade agenda rather than as a standalone focus. He will likely emphasize his “America First” trade strategy, arguing that tariffs and renegotiated deals are strengthening U.S. farmers by leveling the playing field, while also highlighting recent farm aid and bridge payment programs designed to offset market disruptions and high input costs. Agriculture will probably be tied to themes of export competitiveness, rural economic growth, biofuels and energy security, and calls for congressional action on a new Farm Bill, positioning farmers as central to the administration’s broader message of economic resilience and national strength.

NVIDIA is set to report earnings tomorrow after the market close. Wall Street expects another strong quarter driven by AI chip demand, with revenue projected around $65–66 billion (roughly 70% year-over-year growth) and earnings per share near $1.50–$1.60. Investors will be focused less on the headline beat and more on forward guidance, data center growth, and commentary around AI demand sustainability.

Israel is preparing additional trade concessions to the United States, including plans to boost imports of U.S. wheat, in an effort to persuade Washington to ease tariffs on Israeli exports. The government intends to scrap a tax-free quota and impose levies of up to 50% on wheat-feed imports from countries other than the U.S. starting in April, effectively giving American suppliers a competitive advantage over traditional exporters such as Russia. Officials hope the move will strengthen negotiations with the U.S., even as domestic concerns grow that removing tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods could harm local producers. Israel imports nearly all of its wheat consumption, with Russia accounting for roughly 60% of imports last year, making any shift in sourcing significant for global grain trade flows.

 

A senior House Republican called for the U.S. to revoke China’s privileged trade status, arguing that recent reports of China planning to sell anti-ship cruise missiles to Iran add to the national security concerns surrounding Beijing. Representative John Moolenaar, chair of the House Select Committee on China, said the reported missile deal is the latest example of behavior that should prompt Washington to reconsider China’s current trade treatment. The comments signal growing pressure within Congress to link trade policy more directly to geopolitical and security developments involving China and U.S. adversaries.

EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič warned that the European Union is reacting too slowly as China reshapes global trade rules, calling for faster trade defense investigations and reforms to global trade frameworks to address industrial overcapacity, state subsidies, and unfair trade practices. He noted that the EU’s trade deficit with China reached roughly $424 billion last year, describing it as unsustainable over the medium to long term, and criticized the bloc’s trade probe process, which can take more than a year to complete. At the same time, China appears to be moving aggressively to deepen and rework trade relationships with other parts of the world while stalling or slow-walking negotiations with the United States — a strategy that reinforces concerns in Brussels and Washington that Beijing is selectively advancing agreements where it gains leverage while delaying progress with the U.S.

 

Iran’s foreign minister said a renewed nuclear deal with the United States is “within reach,” emphasizing that progress depends on prioritizing diplomacy in upcoming talks. Tehran signaled it is prepared to take necessary steps to reach an agreement while maintaining its position on peaceful nuclear rights. The White House reiterated that diplomacy remains its preferred path, though other options have not been ruled out. The renewed optimism around negotiations has modestly eased geopolitical tensions and weighed slightly on oil prices as markets assess the potential for reduced sanctions risk.

 

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Germany wants trade relations with China to be open and grounded in fair, transparent competition, emphasizing that while competition is healthy, it must remain balanced and rules-based. Ahead of a visit to Beijing, Merz called for a reliable partnership that avoids one-sided dependencies, particularly in supply chains, technology and raw materials, while supporting a “de-risking” approach rather than full economic decoupling. He also stressed the need to address imbalances in bilateral trade, noting Germany’s sizable trade deficit with China. The comments come at a time when both Germany and China run large trade surpluses with the United States, adding another layer of complexity to global trade dynamics as Western economies reassess exposure and supply-chain vulnerabilities.

China’s decision at the end of 2025 to impose import quotas on beef — along with a 55% tariff on volumes exceeding the quota — triggered a surge in buying of Brazilian beef, pushing prices up more than 20%. The average price paid by Chinese buyers for Brazilian forequarter beef rose from $5,550 per metric ton on December 30 to $6,105 within two weeks, reaching $6,850 by month-end and peaking near $7,000 for certain cuts before easing after the Lunar New Year. The rally reflected importers rushing to secure supplies within quota limits amid concerns that Brazil could introduce additional quarterly or company-specific export restrictions, tightening available supply and amplifying price volatility in the global beef trade.

 

Brazil’s soybeans have become significantly cheaper relative to U.S. supplies as a record South American harvest pressures global markets and threatens U.S. export demand from China. Brazilian cargoes are currently nearly $40 per metric ton less expensive than comparable U.S. shipments — the widest discount in over a year — according to Commodity3 data. The shift comes amid uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s new 10% global tariff, with a potential increase to 15% still unresolved, and lingering questions about additional Chinese purchases after an earlier 12 million-ton commitment. With Brazil holding a strong price advantage and tariff policy still in flux, soybeans appear vulnerable both fundamentally and technically, particularly as the market gauges China’s next buying moves.

 

The European Union’s trade chief is urging lawmakers to approve a trade deal with the United States in March, but only if there is clearer guidance by then on President Donald Trump’s new tariff plans. The push follows the U.S. Supreme Court’s rejection of Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose reciprocal tariffs, which led the administration to pursue a new global tariff approach. The European Commission has warned that this revised strategy could raise tariffs on some EU exports above the 15% ceiling previously agreed to last summer. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič said a March plenary vote remains the goal, provided the U.S. offers greater clarity, as EU lawmakers have temporarily paused ratification due to renewed uncertainty around U.S. trade policy.

 

According to Bloomberg, China reported record domestic tourism spending of 803.5 billion yuan ($117 billion) during the nine-day Spring Festival holiday, but analysts at Evercore ISI say the strong headline figures masked underlying weakness in household consumption. The rise in total trips and aggregate spending was largely attributed to the longer holiday compared with last year, while per-trip spending of 1,348 yuan was slightly below 2025’s record and only modestly above pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Evercore’s Neo Wang noted that stagnation in per-trip spending growth suggests Chinese consumers remain cautious, reinforcing expectations that more direct government support may be needed to strengthen services consumption.

 

Corn

S 1500 j 490 c ¼ vs 437

S 1500 j 405 p ¼ vs 440 3/4

B 200 u 450 c 25 3/4

S 200 k 460 c 4 7/8 

B 1500 n 430 p vs s sd n 450 p even 

B 200 z 460/400 ps vs s 500c 4 ½ db

B 500 u 460/500 cs 10 1/2

B 500 w2 430 p 2 ¼ 

S 250 k 420 p 4

B 750 j 425/405 ps and j 440/490 cs 8 ¾ db vs 440 1/4

S 500 j 405p/490c strangles ¾ covered vs 439

 

Beans

B 3000 j 1110/1060 ps 6

S 200 n 1200 c 33 3/4

S 500 n 1140 p 30 7/8 vs 1169

S 1000 k 1130 p 20 to 19 5/8 vs 1156

B 1000 k 1050 p 3 vs 1155 1/4

B 750 j 1050 p 7/8 

B 100 sd m 1160 c 18

S 500 n 1140 straddles 31 ¼ to 30 7/8 vs 1169

S 500 kn -15 cso p 1 1/4

B 850 sd k 1160 c 12 5/8 

B 1000 w1 1180 c 5 ¾ to 6

S 3000 n 1130 p vs b 3000 sd b 1100 p 1 ¼ cr to ¼ db

B 1500 w4 1170 c 3 ¼ to 4

S 500 w4 1160 c 6

B 1000 w4 1164/1180 cs 3 ¼ to 3 1/2

B 1000 w4 1160 c 6 to 7

 

On a block 

S 1000 n 1140 p 31 ½ vs 1169

 

Soymeal

B 500 k 335 c 4.10

B 700 j 305/290 ps 2.10 to 2.35 vs 315.0

S 475 m 310 p 9.20 to 9.10

B 100 j 330 c 2.70

B 1000 j 305/295 ps 2.10 to 2.35

S 500 k 315 c 10.00 vs 314.5

B 250 m 310 p 9.30 vs 315.0

 

Bean oil

S 2800 n 73 c 1.185 to 1.050

B 1000 k 57 p vs s 2000 k 51 p .910 to .985

S 500 k 60/65 cs 1.760 to 1.750

S 1000 n 6650 c 2.225 to 2.165

S 500 k 51 p .320 to .310

B 500 k 74 c .400 vs 6050

S 1000 n 66 c 2.375 to 2.345

B 500 k 55 p 1.00 vs 6032

B 400 n 70/75 cs .680

S 1200 k 63/60 ps 1.840 to 1.810 vs 6041

S 500 n 69 c 1.680 vs 6040

B 300 n 5250 p 2.770 vs 6030

S 400 n 54 p 1.450

S 500 k 60/63 cs 1.130 vs 6025

B 500 k 5450 p .935 vs 6025

B 200 k 63 c 2.230 vs 6004

B 750 j 5750 p 1.110 to 1.330

 

Crush

S 10 k 190 c 18 

 

Wheat

S 1000 u 900 c 3 ½ vs 595

B 300 j 600/640 cs vs s 550 p 1 1/8 to 3/8 cr

B 200 k 515 p 3 1/4

B 200 n 560 c 45 to 45 3/8 

B 200 z 580p/675c strangles 60 

B 500 k 625/675 cs 5 3/8 vs 573 1/2

B 100 k 585 c vs s k 565 p ¼ db

S 700 k 530 p 6 vs 573

 

Kc wheat 

S 300 k 590 c 16 vs 570 1/2

S 250 j 580 c 12 ¾ to 12 5/8

B 500 k 540/500 ps 8 1/4

S 500 n 640 c 17 1/2

B 800 k 540/500 ps 8 ¼ to 8 1/2