The Fed held interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% and continues to signal just one rate cut in 2026, reflecting a cautious stance amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty—particularly from the Middle East. The decision passed 11–1, with one dissent favoring an immediate cut. At the same time, policymakers modestly upgraded their 2026 growth outlook to 2.4% and raised inflation expectations to 2.7%, while leaving unemployment unchanged at 4.4%. Overall, the message is that the Fed sees a resilient economy but remains hesitant to ease policy aggressively given persistent inflation risks and external uncertainties.
S&P Global is projecting a modest shift in 2026 U.S. acreage mix, with corn at 95.2 million acres—slightly above their January estimate but sharply below last year’s 98.8 million—while soybeans are expected to expand to 85.0 million acres, continuing a notable year-over-year increase from 81.2 million. Wheat acres are seen at 44.05 million, up marginally from January but still down 1.3 million from last year. Overall, the outlook reinforces the ongoing rotation away from corn toward soybeans, likely driven by relative input costs and margin considerations, while wheat continues to lose acreage on a year-over-year basis despite a small upward revision.
The Trump administration is expected to soon lift summer gasoline regulations—likely waiving stricter seasonal fuel standards—to help increase fuel supply and ease energy prices amid ongoing market volatility. By allowing refiners more flexibility in gasoline blending, this move would aim to quickly boost production and lower costs at the pump, particularly as geopolitical tensions and risks to global oil flows, including through the Strait of Hormuz, continue to support elevated energy prices.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi speaking with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas signals active diplomatic engagement focused on the escalating tensions in the region, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. The discussion highlights growing international concern over maintaining open shipping lanes as the strait remains a critical chokepoint for global oil and energy flows. While military tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to rise, Europe is attempting to play a stabilizing role through direct dialogue, suggesting that alongside escalation, there is still a parallel effort to manage risk and prevent a full disruption to global trade and energy markets.
President Trump temporarily waived the Jones Act for 60 days, allowing foreign-flagged vessels to transport oil, gas, and other commodities between U.S. ports in an effort to reduce domestic shipping costs and ease energy supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict. The move removes requirements that shipments be carried on U.S.-built and operated ships, effectively increasing available freight capacity and lowering transportation costs in the short term. While primarily aimed at stabilizing energy markets and preventing supply bottlenecks, the waiver could have broader implications for commodity flows by improving logistical efficiency across U.S. coastal trade routes.
DOE ethanol data came in bearish, with stocks rising sharply to 26.4M barrels (+3.2% w/w) despite production falling to 1.093 mb/d (-2.9%). The build was driven largely by the Midwest, signaling product backing up in the core production region, while blender inputs declined (-2.8%), pointing to weaker demand. The key takeaway is that even with lower production, inventories still increased—indicating demand (blending and/or exports) softened more than supply, a negative signal for ethanol margins and near-term corn demand.
Louis Dreyfus reported lower annual profits despite higher trading volumes, highlighting continued margin pressure across the global ag trading sector. The company pointed to abundant global supplies of key crops like corn and soybeans over the past two years, which have weighed on prices and compressed merchandising margins. Even so, results were described as resilient given ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and weather disruptions. The trend mirrors challenges seen across major agribusiness peers like ADM, Bunge, and Cargill, where strong throughput is offset by weaker price environments and tighter trading margins.
February PPI came in stronger than expected, rising 0.7% month-over-month versus a 0.3% estimate, with prior month also firm, signaling persistent upstream inflation pressure. On a yearly basis, headline PPI reached 3.4% (vs. 3.0% expected), while core measures excluding food and energy rose 0.5% m/m and 3.9% y/y, showing inflation remains broad-based rather than driven solely by energy. The data reinforces a “sticky inflation” narrative, suggesting continued cost pressures for producers that could pass through to consumers, likely keeping the Fed cautious on rate cuts while supporting a firm dollar and maintaining an underlying inflation floor across commodities, including agriculture.
Private credit markets are showing signs of stress as rising redemption pressure, loan quality concerns, and several high-profile fund issues force investors to reassess the risks of the asset class—particularly its illiquidity and exposure to vulnerable sectors like software facing AI disruption. Pimco highlights that tighter financial conditions are exposing structural weaknesses and raising questions about whether investors are being adequately compensated for risk. While concerns are growing, the firm notes that opportunities still exist, especially in asset-backed finance, where cash flows tend to be more stable and less tied to broader economic cycles.
Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will meet U.S. President Donald Trump on March 19, as Japan seeks to safeguard trade and investment interests amid a tougher U.S. stance. The talks are expected to be difficult, though reports suggest a potential 11 trillion yen follow-on investment package, underscoring continued economic cooperation.
The proposed antitrust bill targeting the U.S. meatpacking industry is unlikely to pass and is primarily election-year messaging, but it does signal rising political pressure around high beef prices. While major packers like JBS and Tyson Foods face limited near-term risk, government intervention—especially through breakups or added regulation—would likely increase system costs and reduce efficiency, ultimately pushing beef prices higher. Although policies aimed at boosting competition could raise cattle prices for producers, they are unlikely to offset the broader issue: a structurally tight U.S. cattle supply. In this cycle, supply—not market concentration—is the dominant driver, meaning beef prices are likely to remain elevated regardless of policy actions.
General Mills missed quarterly expectations as consumer demand weakened under ongoing economic pressure. Organic sales fell 3%, led by a 4% decline in North American retail, and EPS came in below estimates. Management cited a shift away from packaged foods and higher energy-driven costs, prompting price cuts across the sector to support demand. Despite the soft quarter, full-year guidance was maintained, though the stock continues to lag the broader market.
Corn
S 300 z 700 c 5 5/8
B 1000 u 420/400 ps 4 3/8
B 500 sd u 600 c 10 3/4
B 300 n 475/560 cs 18
B 1000 z 600 c vs s u 600 c 3 3/8 db
B 4000 j 460 c 6 3/8 to 8
B 100 h 480/460 ps 9 1/4
B 100 k 460/440 ps 9 3/8
B 500 k 430 c 2 3/8 vs 458 3/4
B 2000 w3 465 c 2 1/8 to 2 1/2
B 1000 u 550/600 cs 6 to 6 3/8
B 300 n 550/600 cs 3 3/4
B 1500 k 430/410 ps 2 1/2
S 500 u 500/550 cs 10 1/4
B 500 u 500/530 cs 7 1/4
B 800 u 550/600 cs 6
B 1200 j 460 c 5 ¾ to 7
B 1200 m 470/500 cs 8 7/8
S 1000 n 465 c 23 3/8 vs 462 1/2
B 1500 k 500 c 3 1/2
B 350 n 510 c vs s n 430 p 6 7/8 db vs 474 1/4
S 2000 k 485 c 8 ½ to 7 5/8
S 400 k 455 c 20 to 19 3/8
B 1000 n 475 c 26 ¼ vs 474
B 100 u 475 straddles 70 1/2
On a block
B 3000 u 475/550 cs 15 ½ vs 474 1/2
B 1700 u 550/600 cs 5 3/4
B 750 u 410 p vs s u 510 c 16 ¼ cs vs 474
B 700 n 430 p vs s n 510 c 16 7/8 vs 471
Beans
S 200 h 1010p/1350c strangles 26 3/4
B 500 k 1140 p vs s 1000 k 1080 p 11 7/8 db
B 500 k 1200 p 55 7/8 vs 1158
S 600 n 1150/1050 ps 26 1/2
S 800 k 1110/1070 ps 5 7/8
S 1000 k 1160/1070 ps 25 1/2
B 500 k 1230/1290 cs 5 1/4
B 500 k 1210 p vs s 1000 k 1170 p 11 7/8 db
B 600 k 1070 p 2 7/8
S 2000 n 1130 p vs b 2000 sd n 1100 p 6 ¼ to 5 cr
S 200 j 1150 p 10 1/4
S 200 k 1100 p 8
B 1000 x 1200 c vs s n 1200 c 5 ¼ db
S 1000 k 1070 p 3 1/8 to 3
B 250 k 1230/1290 cs 5 1/8
S 500 n 1170 straddles 90 to 89 1/4
S 500 sd n 1100 p 17
S 2000 nx +40 cso p 23
S 2000 m 1160 p vs b 2000 sd m 1120 p 12 to 10 ½ cr
B 250 nx +55/+120 cso cs 9
B 300 sd k 1140 straddles 46 1/4
On a block
B 1000 x 1200 c vs s n 1200 c 5 ½ db
B 1000 x 1300 c 19 5/8
Soymeal
B 200 j 325 c 2.25
B 900 k 325/340 cs 3.60 to 3.90
S 200 k 300 p 2.00
B 1000 j 328 c 1.20
B 400 n 340 c vs s n 300 p .55 cr
B 300 n 340 c 5.20 vs 314.4
B 200 n 315 c 12.50 vs 311.6
B 500 k 315 c 8.15 vs 314.3
B 600 n 305/300 ps 2.15
B 500 j 320 c 1.55
S 100 z 290 p 8.10 vs 310.5
B 1000 k 350 c 2.30 to 2.45
On a block
B 350 k 335 c 1.85
S 1000 j 315 c vs b 1500 j 325 c 6.30 cr
Bean oil
S 500 k 60 p .610 to .600
B 250 n 50 p 1.000 vs 6526
B 375 n 80 c .850 to .885
B 500 k 57 p .280
S 200 n 57 p .940 vs 6526
S 150 q 7750 c 1.145 vs 6437
S 2000 k 65 p 2.390 vs 6610
S 1000 n 67/77 cs 2.550 to 2.490
On a block
B 750 k 5750/5250/50 broken put flies .215
Wheat
B 1250 k 550/520 ps 3 5/8
B 1000 k 800 c 3 to 3 1/8
S 400 k 590/530 ps 17 1/8 to 17
B 1500 j 610/650 s 9 ¼ to 9 3/8 vs 603 1/2
S 750 k 580 p and 750 k 650/700 1x2 cs collecting 8 ¾ vs 621
S 250 n 730 c 15 3/8
B 400 n 640/700 cs vs s k 640 c 3 5/8 cr
B 2000 k 650/700 cs 9 ¾ vs 601
B 500 k 700/800 cs 4 ½ vs 600
B 2000 n 610/730 cs 27 1/8 to 27 ¼ vs 611
B 800 j 600/610 cs 3 7/8 to 4
B 500 k 600 p vs s j 600 p 11 ¾ to 11 7/8 db
B 500 j 625 c 6 ½ vs 597
S 500 j 580 p 6 ¾ to 6
B 400 j 565 p 2 1/4
B 2500 j 610/650 cs 6 3/8 to 8 1/8
Kc wheat
B 500 k 610 p 21 5/8
B 1250 n 640/560 ps 34 ½ vs 644
B 400 m 670/770 cs 16
B 2000 k 650/700/750 call flies 5
B 1000 j 650/700 cs 6
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