President Trump said the planned meeting with China is being rescheduled and is now expected to take place in about five weeks, signaling that dialogue between the two sides remains active. He emphasized a positive working relationship with President Xi and expressed optimism about the upcoming meeting, suggesting continued engagement on trade and broader economic issues despite recent tensions.
The U.S. is moving to ease Venezuela oil sanctions in an effort to boost global crude supply as the Iran conflict disrupts flows and drives energy prices higher. The policy shift would allow greater foreign participation in Venezuela’s oil sector and expand exports, including petrochemicals and fertilizers, to help offset supply shortages and ease inflation pressures. While Venezuela cannot rapidly increase production due to infrastructure constraints, the move signals a broader U.S. strategy of prioritizing global energy supply stability. For markets, this is modestly bearish for crude in the short term and could put downward pressure on fertilizer prices, with indirect implications for U.S. crop economics and biofuel-driven demand.
President Trump indicated he plans to discuss trade with Ireland’s Prime Minister Micheal Martin and expressed optimism about expanding the U.S.–Ireland relationship. The comments suggest a focus on deepening bilateral economic ties, potentially including trade, investment, and business cooperation, as part of broader efforts to strengthen transatlantic partnerships.
EU lawmakers are expected to vote this week on legislation to implement key elements of the EU–U.S. trade agreement, marking a critical step toward formalizing recently negotiated terms. The vote signals progress in transatlantic trade alignment, with a focus on reducing barriers, improving market access, and strengthening economic cooperation. If approved, it would begin translating the broader political agreement into actionable policy, with potential implications for trade flows, regulatory alignment, and competitiveness across key sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing, and energy.
The latest U.S. data presents a mixed economic picture. The NY Fed Services Business Activity index remained deeply negative at -22.6, signaling continued contraction in the services sector despite a slight improvement from the prior month. In contrast, housing showed some resilience, with pending home sales rising 1.8% in February after a prior decline, suggesting stabilization in demand. Meanwhile, labor market momentum appears to be softening at the margin, as ADP employment growth slowed to 9K from 15.5K, pointing to a cooling—but not collapsing—jobs environment.
Chinese state-owned oil companies have resumed purchasing Russian crude following a U.S. waiver, signaling a partial easing of enforcement pressure and a re-opening of trade flows between the two countries. The move highlights China’s continued willingness to secure discounted Russian barrels when policy conditions allow, while also underscoring how U.S. sanctions flexibility can quickly shift global energy trade dynamics. This development could increase Russian export volumes, stabilize supply chains, and weigh on global crude prices at the margin, while reinforcing the strategic energy alignment between China and Russia.
The U.S. and Japan are reportedly preparing to deepen strategic cooperation across critical supply chains and industrial capacity, with a formal agreement expected at next week’s summit. The deal centers on joint development of key minerals—including rare earths, copper, and lithium—aimed at reducing dependence on China and securing inputs essential for energy, defense, and advanced manufacturing. In parallel, the two countries are set to collaborate on AI-driven shipbuilding technology, with Japan targeting a doubling of shipbuilding output by 2035. Backed by a reported $100 billion investment, the initiative signals a major push to rebuild industrial capacity, strengthen supply chain security, and align technological leadership between the two economies.
The EU is moving to delay the implementation of stricter bank capital requirements under the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB), reflecting growing concern that tighter rules could hurt the competitiveness of European banks relative to global peers. Brussels is expected to introduce legislation after Easter that effectively softens or neutralizes the near-term impact of these requirements, buying time for the sector while policymakers assess international alignment. The decision highlights the tension between strengthening financial system resilience and maintaining the global competitiveness of EU financial institutions, especially as other jurisdictions have been slower to fully implement similar rules.
Outside Markets
Price
Change
% Change
Dow
47,582
234.00
0.49
Crude
94.69
(1.52)
-1.58
US Dollar
99.3750
0.045
0.05
Gold
4,977.34
(28.270)
-0.56
US 2/10 Swap
50.5350
(1.3230)
-
VIX
21.56
(0.81)
-
CBOT Ags Volume & Open Interest
Previous Volume
Change in OI
Options Volume
Change in Options OI
Corn
435,806
(20,438)
102,152
(5,458)
SRW
128,310
254
20,263
4,914
HRW
85,177
6,492
-
1,153
Soybeans
539,864
(39,117)
135,378
4,091
Meal
224,724
793
11,515
1,480
Oil
296,838
8,053
22,980
5,925
Feeders
21,931
(1,196)
6,188
998
Live Cattle
57,911
472
17,935
228
Hogs
76,472
(6,556)
18,080
2,652
Overnight options activity
Corn
B 500 q 600 c 6 to 6 3/8
B 200 sd n 500/550 cs 10 3/8
B 500 w2 500 c 2 ¼ to 2 5/8
Beans
B 650 k 1140 p vs s j 1160 p 4 ¾ db
B 100 j 1200 c 2 1/4
S 1000 j 1160 p 20 ½ to 19 1/2
B 300 n 1200 c 32 to 33
Soymeal
B 500 k 325/330 cs 1.15 to 1.20
Bean oil
B 100 n 6450/5950 ps vs s n 70 c even
B 500 n 70 c 2.345 to 2.365
Wheat
B 300 k 650 c 9 ¾ to 10 1/2
Kc wheat
B 100 n 650/750 cs 18
Open interest changes
CME DATA HAS NOT BEEN UPDATED
Cvol
Ags 24.09% down 1.71%
Corn 27.77% down .65%
Beans 22.19% down 3.74%
Soymeal 23.65% down 3.20%
Bean oil 38.31% down .79%
Wheat 37.63% down 3.89%
Feeder cattle 19.51% down 1.19%
Live cattle 18.13% down .72%
Lean hogs 18.14% down 1.06%
Class 3 milk 21.71% down .38%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Crush
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
Grains & Oilseeds
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