CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

China announced a new set of policy measures aimed at strengthening its agricultural sector in 2026, with a focus on boosting domestic production and rural support. The plan includes expanded subsidies for soybean and corn planting and production, along with additional support for protecting cultivated farmland infrastructure. It also introduces subsidies tied to inter-provincial employment and transportation, signaling an effort to improve labor mobility and reduce logistical bottlenecks in rural areas. Overall, the policy package reinforces China’s push for greater agricultural self-sufficiency and supply chain stability.

 

The White House confirmed that China has agreed to postpone President Trump’s planned visit, with both sides now working to reschedule and determine new dates. The delay appears to be logistical rather than a breakdown in relations, indicating that diplomatic engagement is still ongoing.

 

Escalating Middle East tensions tied to strikes on key gas infrastructure have jolted global markets, with Trump urging Israel and Iran to halt attacks and warning that further hits on Qatar’s LNG facilities could trigger major retaliation against Iran’s South Pars field. The risk of disrupted energy flows sent Brent crude above $119 and European natural gas up as much as 35%, while broader markets turned cautious, with equities, Treasuries, and gold all declining and yields moving higher. The move reflects a growing geopolitical risk premium centered on energy supply, with potential ripple effects across inflation, global trade, and commodity markets.

 

The U.S. and Mexico signaled early positioning ahead of the upcoming USMCA review, with a clear emphasis on reshoring and strengthening North American manufacturing. The U.S. Trade Representative indicated both countries will begin evaluating policy options aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing jobs, which likely points toward tighter rules of origin, labor enforcement, and potential incentives to shift production out of Asia and into the U.S.-Mexico corridor. For markets—especially agriculture—this suggests the review could extend beyond traditional trade flows and move toward a broader industrial policy framework, where supply chain security and job creation take priority alongside tariff access.

 

Brazil’s central bank cut its Selic rate by 25 basis points to 14.75% in a unanimous decision, marking the beginning of a cautious easing cycle. Policymakers emphasized a “serenity and caution” approach, signaling that while inflation allows for some loosening, they are not committing to an aggressive pace of cuts. The bank also highlighted that future rate decisions will depend on incoming data, particularly the depth and duration of the Middle East conflict, underscoring the role of global energy volatility in shaping inflation and monetary policy.

 

Stress is emerging in the private credit market as rising investor redemptions force some funds to gate withdrawals, exposing a key mismatch between liquid investor capital and illiquid loans. At the same time, banks like JPMorgan are pulling back financing and marking down portfolios, tightening liquidity across the system. Concerns around defaults—particularly in tech and leveraged borrowers—are driving valuation pressure, with distressed buyers already signaling recoveries as low as 20 cents on the dollar. While not a systemic crisis at this stage, this marks a clear shift from the easy-money environment into a more fragile credit cycle, with potential spillover into broader financial markets if conditions worsen.

 

Vice President Vance signaled that the administration is preparing near-term action on energy costs, stating that new measures aimed at addressing gas prices will be announced within the next 24 to 48 hours. The comment suggests a policy response is imminent, likely focused on easing fuel price pressures for consumers amid broader inflation concerns.

The latest U.S. data showed mixed economic signals but clear inflation pressure building. Factory orders rose slightly by 0.1% in January, stabilizing after the prior decline, suggesting modest improvement in manufacturing demand. However, producer prices came in much hotter than expected, with February PPI jumping 0.7% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year—both above forecasts—indicating persistent upstream inflation pressures. This reinforces the Fed’s concern that inflation progress has stalled and supports a more cautious, potentially hawkish policy stance going forward.

President Trump accused Democrats of intentionally causing a Department of Homeland Security shutdown, blaming them for disruptions and chaos at U.S. airports. He argued they should be held politically accountable, framing the situation as a campaign issue ahead of midterm elections and calling for voters to impose consequences at the ballot box.

Japan is expected to significantly expand its economic commitment to the U.S., with a second phase of investment pledges totaling around $63 billion, according to Nikkei. The upcoming summit is also likely to include announcements tied to major energy infrastructure projects, including nuclear reactors and natural gas plants, signaling deeper cooperation in energy security and long-term industrial investment between the two countries.

 

USTR Greer indicated that recent U.S.–China discussions were constructive, suggesting ongoing engagement despite broader trade tensions, while also highlighting that talks are expanding globally with upcoming negotiations expected with the EU, Malaysia, and India. He noted that more aggressive trade tools—such as Section 338 tariffs, which can impose significant duties without lengthy investigations—remain on the table if needed, reinforcing a willingness to escalate pressure. Greer added that Iran’s oil exports were briefly discussed in the context of China talks, underscoring the geopolitical overlap with trade, and pointed out that Canada is lagging behind Mexico in current negotiations, signaling uneven progress across key trading partners.

Fed Chair Powell signaled a more hawkish underlying stance despite holding rates steady, noting that while the median rate outlook was unchanged, more policymakers are shifting toward fewer cuts due to limited progress on inflation. He emphasized that without clearer disinflation, rate cuts will not occur, with ongoing pressures from oil and tariffs slowing progress. Powell reiterated that policy should remain restrictive and is currently in the right place, while also acknowledging the Fed discussed two-sided risks, including the possibility—though not the base case—of a future rate hike. Overall, the message suggests the Fed is firmly in a data-dependent holding pattern with a higher bar for easing and growing caution around inflation risks.

The Fed held rates steady at 3.50–3.75% in an 11–1 decision, with one dissent calling for a 25 bp cut, reinforcing a broadly cautious but not yet easing stance. Policymakers emphasized a data-dependent approach, signaling they are watching labor markets, inflation trends, and global risks—particularly uncertainty tied to Middle East developments—before making further moves. Updated projections were largely unchanged, with the 2026 policy rate seen at 3.375% and the longer-run rate anchored around 3.125%, suggesting the Fed still expects only gradual easing over time while maintaining its commitment to bringing inflation back to 2% without jeopardizing employment.

Outside Markets	Price	Change	% Change
Dow	46,497	(38.00)	-0.08
Crude	96.60	0.28	0.29
US Dollar	99.9450	0.072	0.07
Gold	4,695.14	(123.360)	-2.56
US 2/10 Swap	46.3550	(2.0090)	-
VIX	25.57	0.48	-
CBOT Ags Volume & Open Interest
	Previous Volume	Change in OI	Options Volume	Change in Options OI
Corn	417,222	18,163	108,401	26,254
SRW	138,387	472	55,627	19,999
HRW	75,225	304	-	17,531
Soybeans	296,315	(9,765)	72,864	1,796
Meal	206,785	(1,856)	23,853	1,557
Oil	218,715	(103)	25,076	6,752
Feeders	16,853	(665)	3,944	1,037
Live Cattle	42,211	(680)	13,607	6,646
Hogs	56,835	(2,646)	12,201	2,668

 

 

 

 

Overnight options activity 

Corn

S 400 n 520 c vs b n 420 p 8 7/8 cr

B 300 u 550 c 17 ¼ to 17 3/8 

B 100 n 460/440 ps 8 1/4

B 500 j 470/485 cs 4 1/4

S 500 k 445/430 ps 3

B 250 n 500/530 cs 7 1/4

B 1000 k 500 c 6 to 6 7/8 

S 200 n 480 c 27

S 500 n 500 c 20 1/8 to 18 3/4

B 500 m 610 c 2 1/4

S 200 z 520 c 29 1/8 

S 200 sd n 520/540 cs 4 3/4

 

Beans

S 150 n 1160 straddles 88 1/4

B 100 m 1170 straddles 73 3/4

B 150 h 1040 p 16 1/4

B 200 n 1300 c 14 3/8 

B 200 k 1250 c 5 5/8 to 6 5/8

 

Soymeal

B 150 m 320 straddles 23.35

S 500 k 325/330 cs 2.00

B 250 k 325 c vs s w3 325 c 6.60 db

S 200 k 300 p 1.75

S 350 n 350 c 5.20

 

Bean oil

S 1000 k 72/78 cs vs b 63 p .800 to .870 db

B 3000 k 55 p .180 

B 500 k 72 c 1.00 to 1.080 

 

Wheat

B 100 j 620 c 14

B 350 k 670 c 13 ¼ to 13 1/2

S 100 n 740 c 17

B 400 k 700 c 8 ¾ to 9 1/4

 

Open interest changes

Corn

April 460 call buy was closing....may 500 call buy, may 485 call sale, sept 475/550 call spread buy and sept 550/600 call spreads buys were new

 

Beans

July 1130 put sale, short june 1100 put buy, june 1160 put sale, short june 1120 put buy and july nov +40 cso put sales were closing

 

Soymeal

May 350 call buy and april 315 call sales were closing...april 325 call buy and april 328 call buys were new

 

Bean oil

May 65 put sale was new....july 67/77 call spread sale was closing 

 

Wheat

May 550/520 put spread sale was closing....april 610/650 call spread buy and may 650/700 call spread buys were new....july 610/730 call spread buy was rolling a long

 

Kc wheat 

May 650/700/750 call fly buy and july 640/560 put spread buy were new

 

Live cattle

Oct 210p/250c strangle sale and dec 210p/250c strangles sales were new

 

Cvol

Ags 24.23% up .14%

Corn 29.86% up 2.09% (6 month high)

Beans 20.17% down 2.02%

Soymeal 25.92% up 2.27%

Bean oil 37.26% down 1.04%

Wheat 42.62% up 4.99% 

Feeder cattle 19.86% up .35%

Live cattle 17.42% down .71%

Lean hogs 18.04% down .10%

Class 3 milk 21.83% up .12%

 

Corn

Beans

Soymeal

Bean oil

Wheat

Kc wheat

Miax wheat 

Oats

Rough rice

Crush

Feeder cattle

Live cattle

Lean hogs

 

 

sources
news bloomberg
options data globex

vols bloomberg