Today was day 3 of 5 for the Goldman Roll.
Big banks report earnings next week. Goldman Sachs gets the ball rolling on Monday.
The latest COT report paints a broadly bearish picture across the grain complex. Managed money is actively liquidating long positions in corn (-49,342), soybeans (-23,777), and soybean meal (-6,393), while funds are aggressively building net shorts in wheat (-14,274 added this week). The one outlier is soybean oil, where managed money sits at a record net long of 150,682 contracts — making it the most crowded and vulnerable trade in the complex. Commercial producers are providing some support by covering shorts in corn and beans, but the overall tone is one of fund de-risking, suggesting further downside pressure is likely across grains unless a fresh bullish catalyst emerges.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly signaled a balanced and flexible policy outlook, noting that a rate cut is possible if the Iran conflict de-escalates and oil prices retreat, but emphasizing the Fed would hold steady if inflation remains elevated. She highlighted that persistently high energy costs could weigh on growth, with early signs of consumers pulling back on spending like travel. Daly views current policy as appropriately restrictive to bring inflation down while still supporting a stable labor market, and sees lower odds of a rate hike relative to holding or cutting. Overall, she described the economy as fundamentally solid, with risks to inflation and employment now more evenly balanced as the Fed waits for greater clarity on geopolitical developments and energy markets.
Brazilian beef markets are showing early signs of margin stress, as JBS NV has temporarily halted production at two plants due to rising cattle costs. The decision highlights how sharply higher livestock prices are beginning to pressure packer margins, even in one of the world’s lowest-cost production regions. From a market perspective, this is a supportive signal for global beef prices, as reduced slaughter capacity and tighter margins can slow production and limit export availability. More broadly, the development reinforces the ongoing shift in leverage toward cattle producers, while increasing the risk of tighter near-term supply both domestically in Brazil and across global trade flows.
U.S. consumer sentiment has fallen to a record low, driven primarily by rising inflation concerns linked to the Iran conflict rather than weakness in the labor market. The key shift is a notable increase in both short- and long-term inflation expectations, signaling that price pressures may be becoming more entrenched. This creates a stagflation-like backdrop where consumer demand begins to soften while inflation remains elevated, complicating the Fed’s ability to ease policy. For markets, it reinforces volatility across commodities, with supportive elements from inflation and energy, but growing concern about demand erosion, particularly on the consumer side.
Corn
B 1000 n 445p/535c strangles 16 3/4
S 2000 k 450/440 put spreads 6 7/8 to 6 3/4
B 1400 n 455 c 16 ¼ vs 454
B 2000 k 440 c 3 ¾ to 4 1/8
B 1200 u 450 p 22 5/8 to 23
S 400 u 460 c 26 1/8 vs 458
B 500 u 410 p 6 5/8
S 1000 n 480 c 8 ½ to8 3/8 vs 452 1/4
B 4500 h 600/650 cs 3 1/2
B 500 n 460 c 13 3/4
B 1000 z 465 p 29 ¾ vs 470
B 600 u 400 p 4 5/8 to 4 7/8
B 2000 sd m 480 c 6 ¾ to 7 3/8
S 500 n 440/500 cs 16 1/2
S 3000 n 445/415 ps 10 1/8
B 1000 sd n 465 p vs s n 450 p 3 ¼ cr
B 2000 n 500 c 4 ½ to 5 1/4
B 3000 k 430 p paying 1 ¾ to 1 7/8
S 1150 n 515 c 3 ½
B 4000 w3 450 c 7/8 to 1 7/8
B 1000 n 500 c 4 7/8 vs 449 3/4
B 900 n 490 c 6 ¼ vs 450
S 100 u 450 p 24
S 500 m 450 c 11
S 200 k 450/430 ps 10 5/8
On a block
B 4500 n 500/600 cs 4 1/8 vs 451 1/2
S 1000 n 450 p 17 ¾ vs 448 ¾
Beans
B 750 k 1230/1290 c 1
B 1000 m 1310 c 2 7/8
B 500 m 1300 c 3 3/8
S 200 k 1160 straddles 27 7/8 vs 1174
S 750 m 1160 p 13 1/8 to 12 3/4
B 500 m 1200 c 23 3/4
B 1000 x 1200/1300 cs vs s 1000 p 16 db
S 600 k 1180 c vs b 1200 k 1200 c 1 ¼ to 1 1/8 cr vs 1178
B 200 k 1180 c vs s k 1040 p 12 vs 1177 1/2
B 2000 n 1250 c vs s 2000 sd n 1200 c 1 ½ db
S 500 k 1140 p 3 ¾ to 2 1/2
S 500 k 1160 p 7 3/8
B 2000 n 1250/1350 cs 11 5/8 to 11 7/8
B 400 q 1200 c 37
B 2000 n 1250/1350 cs 11 5/8 to 11 3/4
B 200 xn +60 cso c 5 1/2
B 2200 k 1160/1150 ps 3
B 900 m 1180p/1190c strangles 48 1/2
B 600 k 1170 c 15
B 500 nx +40 cso c 11 1/2
B 700 nx +60 cso c 6 ½ to 7
Soymeal
S 1000 k 345 c 2.85 vs 332.5
B 750 m 335 c 8.30 vs 328.5
S 2000 k 330/335 cs 1.95 to 1.75
B 1000 k 325/335 cs 4.70
B 1500 k 350 c 1.80 to 2.15
B 500 m 360 c vs s k 325 c 8.15 cr
B 1000 k 320/330 cs 6.60 vs 332.5
B 2000 k 320 p 2.15 vs 332.5
B 1000 n 340 c vs s n 310 p 2.10 vs 327.5
S 300 k 325/340 cs 7.00
B 1000 k 320 p 2.10 to 2.45
B 500 m 330 c 10.85
B 2000 m 350 c 3.30 to 4.55
S 500 m 325 c 9.30
B 1000 k 310/305 ps .30
B 2750 k 320 p vs s 5500 k 310 p 1.25 to 2.00
S 500 k 340 c b 1000 k 315 p collecting .40 vs 329.6
B 1000 k 300 p .25
S 2000 k 320 p 2.45 to 2.10
S 1000 k 330/335 cs 1.80 to 1.75
B 300 k 320 c 11.80
S 500 k 320 c 11.75 to 11.60
Bean oil
S 1000 k 71 c .340 to .310
B 800 n 66 c 3.875
S 1000 k 72 c .260 to .240
B 250 m 70 c 1.470
B 400 n 67/63 ps vs s n 7350 c .470 db
S 1000 n 6550 p 2.585
S 400 n 7350 c 1.380
S 300 n 62 p 1.290 to 1.250
B 100 n 70/75 cs vs s 65 p 1.170 cr
B 200 k 70 c vs s 800 k 75 c .270 db
B 300 n 66 c 3.875
B 1000 k 7250 c .210 vs 6705
S 750 m 75/80 cs .385
S 500 k 71 c .380 vs 6712
B 500 k 72 c .255 to .260
On a block
B 250 u 75 c 1.650 vs 6565
Wheat
B 200 k 600 c 3 5/8
S 500 k 75 c 10 ¼ to 10 1/8 vs 578
B 300 n 540 p vs s 600 n 740 c 4 3/8 db vs 580
S 750 k 550 p 3 3/4 to 3 1/4
S 500 n 540 p 12 to 11
S 150 m 600 c 13 7/8
S 200 k 620 c 1 5/8
B 100 k 570/590 cs 6 5/8
On a block
S 300 n 635 c 13 ¼ vs 578 1/2
B 600 n 580 c 29 1/8 vs 578 1/2
Kc wheat
B 400 k 540 p 3/8 vs 593
B 600 k 650 c vs s 1200 k 700 c 7/8 db vs 590 1/4
B 200 k 620 c 4 3/8
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