By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities
Today is day 3 of 5 of the Goldman Roll.
Vix is below 20.
USTR Jamieson Greer indicated that Friday’s meeting with Chinese officials will likely focus on shaping policy outcomes ahead of the upcoming Trump–Xi summit, rather than delivering immediate agreements. He noted there are no planned auto-related deliverables for the meeting and signaled a firm stance on existing U.S. rules governing connected vehicles, which effectively limit Chinese autos’ access to the market. Greer added that these regulations would make it “probably difficult” for Chinese automakers to establish production in the U.S., reinforcing ongoing structural barriers in the sector despite broader trade discussions.
China’s March inflation data points to soft consumer demand but improving producer-side conditions. Headline CPI rose 1.0% year-over-year, below expectations, while falling 0.7% month-over-month, a sharper decline than forecast, highlighting ongoing weakness in domestic consumption. In contrast, producer prices turned positive at 0.5% year-over-year—beating expectations and rebounding from prior deflation—suggesting some stabilization in industrial demand and upstream pricing power even as consumer-side inflation remains subdued.
The Trump administration is reportedly weighing a new crackdown on Chinese telecom carriers’ operations in the U.S., signaling a potential escalation in tech and national security tensions with China. Any move to further restrict or revoke operating permissions would likely heighten regulatory pressure on Chinese firms and could prompt retaliation, adding another layer of uncertainty to already strained U.S.–China relations.
The Senate Banking Committee has postponed plans to hold a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh next week, citing delays related to paperwork. The move pushes back the timeline for his consideration, adding a degree of uncertainty around the confirmation process.
Ecuador has escalated trade tensions with Colombia by raising import duties to 100% from 50%, citing Colombia’s failure to address border security concerns. The move effectively doubles the cost of Colombian goods entering Ecuador, signaling a sharp deterioration in relations and raising the risk of retaliatory measures or broader regional trade disruption.
Weekend talks between the U.S. and Iran are set to take place in Islamabad, Pakistan, but the diplomatic backdrop remains fragile. President Trump struck a cautiously optimistic tone on reaching a deal, while also warning Tehran over reported tanker fees in the Strait of Hormuz and criticizing its handling of energy flows despite ceasefire commitments. At the same time, the U.S. has urged Israel to scale back strikes in Lebanon, with concerns that continued escalation could derail negotiations—an issue also raised by Iran and mediator Pakistan, both of which view Israel’s actions as a violation of the truce.
Overnight options activity
B 100 n 480/500 cs 3 3/8
B 1000 k 445 c 5 3/8 to 5 7/8
S 350 n 455 c 17 3/8
B 200 m 500 c 1 7/8
Beans
S 100 x 1150 p 53 5/8 to 53 1/2
Soymeal
S 150 k 320 p 3.80
S 400 k 315 p 2.00 to 1.95
B 500 m 310 p 4.35 to 4.40
S 300 n 455 c 3.40
B 150 k 315 p 2.05 to 2.10 vs 323
S 175 k 320 c vs b 350 k 330 c .85 cr
B 200 k 330 c 3.00
Bean oil
S 200 z 60 p 3.050
S 100 w3 66 p .450
S 100 w3 6650 p .600
B 150 k 69/71 cs .480
Wheat
B 400 k 610 c 3 ¾ to 3 7/8
B 300 n 540 p 11 to 11 1/2
Open interest changes
Corn
May 440 put sale and may 500 call sales were closing.
Beans
May 1170 put sale was new.....july 1320/1360/1400 call tree buy was rolling down a long to a 1320/1360 long call spread
Soymeal
May 330 call buy and july 320 call buys were new
Bean oil
May 65 put buy was new...july 6550 put buy was closing
Wheat
June 630/680/730 call fly buy was new
Kc wheat
May 580 put sale was new
Cvol
Ags 19.24% down .53%
Corn 18.89% down 1.11%
Beans 16.32% down .37%
Soymeal 22.30% up 1.11%
Bean oil 30.70 up 1.40%
Wheat 30.10% down 2.42%
Feeder cattle 17.29% down 1.03%
Live cattle 16.18% down .46%
Lean hogs 18.54% down .09%
Class 3 milk 21.40% unchanged
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
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China committed to buy 25 million metric tons of US soybeans in the 2026-27 marketing year, but official forecasts and market skepticism suggest the actual figure could be 10 million tons lower. The gap between political commitment and commercial follow-through is now shaping how grain traders read every incoming export sale.
June 18 – Stock futures pushed higher early this morning as investors weighed prospects for the Strait of Hormuz reopening against a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The VIX remained slightly elevated near 17 this morning, although that is below yesterday’s high near 19. The dollar index however continues to push higher to fresh one-year highs near 100.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.45%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%, after pushing to fresh 16-month highs on Wednesday. The yield curve continues to flatten amid rising inflation risks. Yet, WTI crude oil put in a fresh three-month low this morning near $74 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets tried to push higher overnight, but then they came under pressure in the early morning hours today. The markets are closed for Juneteenth Day tomorrow.
June 17 - The Dow put in a new intraday high today, while other stocks consolidated on the session as investors prepare for this afternoon's press conference and policy statement from the Federal Reserve. The VIX is trading near 17 at midday, while the dollar index trades near 99.7 in relatively quiet trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.43%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.07%. WTI crude oil prices are near $77 per barrel, while Brent trades near $80 per barrel as "value" buyers come back into the market as they assess longer-term supply risks. The grain and oilseed markets were mostly higher, with wheat leading the way with double-digit gains on weather concerns and end user buying.
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