Crop progress this afternoon.
According to Bloomberg, tensions in the Middle East escalated as Donald Trump confirmed the U.S. has initiated a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, even as Iran reportedly reached out to reopen negotiations. Bloomberg reports that talks broke down over Iran’s refusal to abandon its nuclear program, prompting the U.S. to shift toward direct pressure on Iranian-linked shipping flows. The development introduces significant risk to global energy markets given the Strait’s role in transporting a large share of global oil and LNG supplies. Iran has warned it could retaliate by targeting regional ports if its exports are disrupted, raising the potential for broader supply interruptions. Crude markets have already moved higher in response, reflecting a renewed geopolitical risk premium and increased volatility tied to the uncertainty around escalation versus diplomacy.
Export inspections highlight a clear divergence across the grains, with corn demand still leading, soybeans stabilizing, and wheat lagging. Corn shipments at 1.78 MMT were lower week-over-week but remain strong overall, with year-to-date exports up nearly 34%, reinforcing that demand is still supportive despite growing South American competition. Soybeans came in at 815k tons, slightly higher on the week and sharply above last year, though year-to-date exports are still down over 25%, underscoring that recent strength is more short-term resilience than a structural shift, especially without China re-engagement. Wheat continues to struggle, with weekly inspections down both week-over-week and nearly 48% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing global competitiveness issues and limited demand support.
Brazil is facing rising consumer pressure from shrinkflation, where product sizes are shrinking even as prices remain steady or increase, intensifying affordability concerns ahead of elections and posing a political risk to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The trend is becoming widespread across everyday goods like food and household items, driven in part by broader food inflation and global pressures, including geopolitical tensions affecting prices. As a result, public sentiment is deteriorating, with a growing share of Brazilians viewing the economy negatively, challenging Lula’s message of improving living standards and drawing parallels to inflation-driven political struggles seen elsewhere.
Conagra Brands Inc. announced that CEO Sean Connolly will step down, with John Brase set to take over on June 1, marking a leadership shift after a decade of significant stock underperformance. Despite relatively muted premarket reaction, the move reflects ongoing pressure from weak shareholder returns, with the company’s shares down roughly 60% since 2015 and lagging the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index. Brase, a veteran of J.M. Smucker Co. and Procter & Gamble, is expected to focus on operational improvements and portfolio optimization as Conagra navigates softer demand, shifting consumer preferences away from processed foods, and ongoing margin pressures.
Consumers in Brazil are increasingly facing shrinkflation, with smaller package sizes and steady to higher prices eroding purchasing power, particularly across food and household staples. The trend is gaining visibility as food inflation rises, creating growing dissatisfaction among households and posing a political challenge for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of elections. While the government is pointing to external pressures such as Middle East tensions to explain rising costs, public sentiment continues to deteriorate, with a majority of Brazilians viewing the economy negatively, raising risks to Lula’s reelection outlook.
Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to tariff threats from Donald Trump by reiterating that “trade wars have no winners,” pushing back against the idea of using tariffs as leverage over alleged Chinese support for Iran. The statement underscores China’s broader stance of opposing escalation in trade tensions while signaling it will defend its economic interests if faced with additional U.S. tariffs.
Corn
S 1000 u 520/580 cs 7 covered vs dec 482
S 1000 n 490 c 7 1/8
B 1500 n 530 c 2 7/8 to 3
B 1500 k 480 c 3/8
B 200 z 520/620 cs vs s 440 p collecting 3
S 100 sd n 475 straddles 33 3/4
S 1000 k 469 c 1/2
B 1250 n 445/425 ps 7 ½ vs 452 3/4
B 500 m 460 c 8 5/8
B 2000 k 450 c 2 ½ to 2 7/8
S 1000 k 450 c 2 1/8
B 200 sd f 560 c 7
B 2000 n 455 straddles 35 1/8 to 35 ¼ vs 455
B 1000 k 460/452 ps 6 1/2
S 500 k 445 p 5 3/8
S 200 m 460 c 8 7/8
B 250 k 445 p 5 5/8
B 500 k 445 c 5 1/8
B 200 m 460 c 9 1/8
Beans
B 2500 w3 1160 puts vs s 5000 w3 1140 puts 3 to 3 1/8 db
B 300 n 1200/1300 cs 20 3/8
S 750 sd n 1120 p 15 to 14
S 650 m 1220 c 11 5/8
B 300 nx +60 cso c 6
B 100 nx +40/+60 cso cs 4 ¾
B 800 aug 1280 c vs s 1120 p 5 1/8 cr vs1173
B 750 sd m 1120 p 8 1/4
B 1900 m 1140 p vs s 3800 m 1090 p 3 ¾ to 4 1/4
B 1000 k 1150 p 4 ½ to 5 3/8
S 500 n 1140 p 15 1/2
B 2300 n 1160 p 21 5/8 vs 1190
B 1000 n 1170/1100 ps vs s 1300 c 13 ¾ to 14 3/4
S 1000 k 1180 p 20 ½ to 18 1/2
B 250 sd n 1120 p 14 ½
B 200 x 1200/1300 cs vs s x 1090 p 3 cr
B 1000 n 1160 p 21 3/8 vs 1190 1/2
B 1000 k 1160/1140 ps 4 1/4
S 200 sd n 1120 p 14
B 350 x 1150/1190 cs vs s 1070 p 3 to 2 ¼ cr
Soymeal
S 500 n 320 p 5.60 to 5.50
S 500 k 340 c 3.00
B 2500 k 300 p .10 to .15
B 500 k 320 p 1.25
B 100 m 300 p 1.00
S 250 n 320/300 ps 5.60
S 100 k 350 c 1.75
S 800 n 320 c 17.70
B 2000 n 350/400 cs vs s 300 p 3.00 db
S 750 k 320 p 2.25 to 1.50
Bean oil
S 500 z 65/75 cs 2.390 vs 6285
B 100 n 7650 c vs s 60 p .040 db vs 6715
B 100 m 73 c .680
B 600 k 68 p 2.080
S 300 m 68 straddles 5.170 to 4.970
S 300 n 70 c 2.190 to 2.100
B 200 k 65 p .660
B 100 v 70 c vs s v 62 p 1.00 cr vs 6395
B 300 z 65/7250 cs 2.090
B 400 q 67/64 ps 1.580
B 200 k 60 p .065
S 200 k 6750/75 cs 1.510 vs 6780
B 100 u 7050 c 2.635 vs 6579
B 100 n 72 c 1.955 vs 6790
B 150 q 7050 c 2.595 vs 6686
Wheat
B 100 n 700 c vs s n 540 p even vs 596
B 200 u 700 c 17
S 250 m 570 p 10 5/8
B 350 m 600 c 19 ¾ vs 592 1/2
B 400 k 600/620 cs 3 5/8
S 500 n 670 c 10 5/8 to 10 1/4
B 300 n 500 p 2
S 500 m 570 p 11 1/2
B 1000 m 680/730 cs 2 1/8 to 2 1/4
B 400 n 580/560/520/500 put condors 7 1/4
Kc wheat
S 500 k 620 c 9 ½ to 9 1/8
B 1500 k 620 c 11 3/8 to 12 1/2
B 1000 k 600/580 ps 5 5/8 vs 611 ½
B 200 k 590 p 6 vs 604 3/4
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