The NASDAQ Composite has now risen for 10 consecutive sessions, marking a sustained stretch of momentum that reflects improving risk appetite and steady buying interest in growth and tech stocks. A run of this length typically signals strong underlying sentiment, though it can also raise the risk of short-term consolidation as the market becomes more extended.
Today is the last day of the Goldman roll.
BofA and Morgan Stanley report earnings tomorrow.
UBS argues that Chevron’s renewable fuels business is materially undervalued, with current weak renewable diesel and biodiesel margins masking a significant earnings inflection beginning in 2026. The firm highlights that updated Environmental Protection Agency Renewable Volume Obligations will drive a sharp increase in biomass-based diesel demand, supporting a rebound in margins and cash flow, with Chevron expected to generate roughly $440 million in incremental EBITDA from 2026–2028 and potentially $1 billion in additional cash flow as diesel and crush margins recover. UBS also points to Chevron’s expanded exposure to soybean processing through its joint venture with Bunge Global, which adds leverage to improving soy crush economics. Despite near-term margin pressure, UBS maintains a bullish stance with a $218 price target, framing the current environment as a setup for a structurally stronger earnings profile tied to biofuel policy support and tightening feedstock dynamics.
Analysts’ estimates for the upcoming April US Department of Agriculture Cattle-on-Feed report point to a largely neutral-to-slightly supportive setup, with April 1 on-feed inventories expected at 99.8% of last year (range 99.4–100.1), suggesting feedlot supplies remain essentially flat year-over-year. March placements are projected sharply lower at 93.5% (range 92.3–94.5), reflecting tighter feeder cattle availability and likely weather or cost-related placement delays, while marketings are also seen lower at 93.7% (range 92.3–95.3), indicating slower turnover through feedyards. The combination of reduced placements and softer marketings implies continued tightness in the feeder pipeline and supports the narrative of constrained future fed cattle supplies, even as current on-feed levels remain steady. Overall, the report is expected to reinforce the bullish longer-term supply structure without providing a near-term shock to the market.
Scott Bessent warned that the global economy cannot sustain China running massive trade surpluses near $1 trillion, signaling growing concern about global imbalances and their destabilizing effects. His comments suggest increasing pressure on China’s export-driven model and imply that such surpluses could intensify trade tensions and policy responses worldwide.
CONAB’s update modestly increased Brazilian soybean and corn yields and production, confirming a very large but largely anticipated crop. Soybean output was raised to 179.15 MMT and corn to 139.57 MMT, reinforcing that South American supply remains heavy, though the pace of upward revisions is slowing. For soybeans, the focus shifts from crop size to export flow, keeping pressure on U.S. shipments during Brazil’s peak window. For corn, the stronger safrinha outlook leans slightly bearish by adding to global supply just as the U.S. needs demand traction. Overall, the report caps upside more than it creates new downside, with market direction increasingly dependent on weather, logistics, and export competitiveness rather than further production increases.
Corn
B 500 u 410 p vs s 1000 u 380 p 2 5/8
B 200 z 520 c vs s 420 p 9 3/8 db
B 250 zz -35 cso p 5 covered vs 11
S 450 u 420 p 9 5/8
B 500 u 500/530 cs 5
S 1000 k 455 c 1 1/2
S 1800 z 560 c vs 471 ½ against b u 530 c covered vs 456 collecting 2 ¼ to 2 1/8
B 1300 n 430 p vs s k 430 p 1 5/8 db
S 300 n 470 c 12 to 11 7/8
S 2000 n 435 p 8 ¾ vs 435
B 500 k 440 straddles 442 1/2
S 200 u 440 p 18
B 200 m 415 p 7/8
S 1000 k 445 c 3 5/8 to 3 1/2
Beans
B 4000 k 1150 p 6 ½ to 7 3/8
B 500 april 23rd 1140 puts 3 7/8
S 500 k 1150 p 6 1/2
S 500 m 1180p/1190c strangles 44 1/2
B 2000 n 1100 p 6 5/8 vs 1181
B 2700 m 1140 p vs s sd m 1120 p 1 ½ to 1 3/4
S 500 n 1260 c 11 1/2
B 1000 m 1130 p vs s 2000 m 1080 p 3 5/8
B 400 x 1100/1050 ps 15 5/8
S 500 k 1120 p 1 to 7/8
B 1000 w3 1140 p 3/4
S 400 n 1120 p 11 ¼ to 11 1/8
S 500 m 1180 p 24 1/2
B 300 n 1180 c 35 ¼ vs 1181 1/4
B 500 m 1140 p vs s sd m 1120 p 1 ½ db
Soymeal
B 300 n 280 p .55
S 1200 q 320 c 16.50
S 250 n 360 c 4.70
B 200 w3 335 c 2.60
B 200 m 325 p vs s 100 m 330 p 5.45 db
Bean oil
B 2000 m 70 c .865 to .920
S 2000 n 70 c 1.725 to 1.570
S 200 k 66 p .975 to .930
S 500 n 66 c 3.100 to 3.015
S 400 q 100 c .090 to .080
B 300 m 64 p 2.010
S 400 u 63 p 3.930 to 3.900
B 1000 k 70 c .130 to .150
B 400 k 70/75 cs .095 to .120
B 300 n 66 p 3.060 vs 6612
B 250 z 62/56 ps vs s 6950 c .315 db vs 6219
B 1000 m 69/72/75 call flies .330
Wheat
B 400 u 620/770 cs vs s n 600/700 cs 6 ½ db
B 500 k 600 c vs s 1000 k 620 c 5/8 to 3/4
B 500 m 620 c 16 1/8 vs 599 3/4
B 300 k 580 c 18 ½
B 200 k 650 c 5 vs 620 3/4
S 500 u 700 c 18 ¾ vs 612 1/4
B 400 z 605/505 ps and z 715/905 cs paying 53 1/4
Kc wheat
S 1000 k 615 p 11 to 9 ¾
B 500 k 610 c 10 1/4
B 500 k 580 p 1 1/4
B 500 k 700 c 1
B 200 n 620 p 26 5/8
S 400 m 575 p 4 1/8 to 3 3/4
B 1000 k 590 p 2 ¼ to 2 1/2
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