USDA Report Estimates - June 2026
USDA Grain S&D Report - Trade Estimates for the monthly publication
Matt Zeller
- Grains & Oilseeds
CBOT Grains Daily Options Report
By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities
Treasury Secretary Bessent and White House advisor Kevin Hassett both struck a constructive tone on the U.S. economic outlook, emphasizing underlying strength despite ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainty. Bessent noted the economy remains solid and suggested growth could exceed 3–3.5% this year, while Hassett pointed to strong real income gains as a key support for continued expansion. For markets, the takeaway is that policymakers still see resilient domestic demand and momentum, reinforcing a firm macro backdrop even as external risks remain elevated.
Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled that current tariff relief may be temporary, with rates potentially returning to prior levels by July, reinforcing that U.S. trade policy remains fluid. At the same time, he downplayed risks around President Trump’s upcoming China trip and emphasized that the U.S. strategy is focused on “de-risking,” not full economic decoupling. His comments also highlighted growing concern over China’s expanding global trade surplus, suggesting continued pressure points in negotiations. For markets, the message is mixed: near-term stability in diplomacy, but a clear reminder that tariff risk and structural trade tensions remain firmly in play.
The reported U.S. blockade is introducing renewed tension into what had been a cautiously improving U.S.–China relationship. While recent dialogue had suggested a more stable trajectory, this move risks shifting the tone back toward confrontation, particularly if China views it as a threat to trade flows or energy security. For markets, the key takeaway is a reintroduction of geopolitical uncertainty, with potential implications for global trade dynamics and retaliatory risk, especially across commodities and agriculture where China remains a central demand driver.
ECB officials struck a cautious and flexible tone, with Christine Lagarde noting the Iran war is increasing global fragmentation but not placing Europe at the center of the fallout, leaving the outlook between baseline and downside scenarios. Policymakers emphasized a data-dependent approach, with openness to tightening if inflation proves persistent, but also restraint if shocks are temporary. Comments across the board highlight uncertainty around how the conflict will impact medium-term inflation, with the ECB signaling it will not overreact to short-term energy-driven moves and will instead focus on broader economic conditions before adjusting rates.
March PPI came in notably softer than expected, with headline rising just 0.5% m/m (vs. 1.2% expected) and core up only 0.1% (vs. 0.6%), signaling faster-than-anticipated easing in pipeline inflation, while year-over-year readings were also below forecasts. At the same time, ADP employment showed modest improvement, suggesting the labor market remains stable. The combination points to a “cooling inflation, steady growth” backdrop, easing pressure on the Fed and supporting a more risk-on macro tone, with potential for lower yields, a softer dollar, and marginally supportive conditions for export-sensitive markets like agriculture.
Overnight options activity
Corn
S 1250 k 450 p 7
B 100 n 525/600 cs 2
B 250 k 455 c 1 1/2
B 300 k 450 c 2 5/8 to 3
B 150 z 525 c 18 to 18 1/4
B 250 k 445/450 cs 2 1/4
S 500 n 450 c 19 5/8 to 19 3/8
B 500 sd n 460 c 23 3/8 to 23 7/8
S 100 k 440p/445c strangles 8
Beans
S 400 k 1140 p 3 ¼ to 2 7/8
B 200 k 1160 p 11 1/2
B 300 k 1150 p 5 ½ to 6
S 150 n 1160 c 23 ½ vs 1179
S 100 n 1200 c 24 3/4
Bean oil
B 500 k 56 p .020
Wheat
B 200 k 620/640 cs 2
Kc wheat
B 200 w3 635/645 cs 2 1/2
Open interest changes
Corn
Dec 560 call sale and july 435 put sales were new....sept 530 call buy was closing
Beans
May 1150 put buy was closing....july 1100 put buy, june 1140 put buy, short june 1120 put sale and jume 1130/1080 1x2 put spread buys were new
Soymeal
Aug 320 call sale was closing
Bean oil
June 70 call buy was new...july 70 call sale and may 70 call buy were closing....june 69/72/75 call fly buy was rolling down a long
Kc wheat
May 615 put sale was new....may 590 put buy was closing
Lean hogs
June 110 call buy was closing
Cvol
Ags 19.32% down .07%
Corn 19.98% up .36%
Beans 16.01% down .69% (1 month low)
Soymeal 24.29% down 1.59%
Bean oil 27.50% down 1.20% ( 1 month low)
Wheat 32.20% up 1.68%
Feeder cattle 16.11% down .09% (6 month low)
Live cattle 16.04% up .28%
Lean hogs 19.94% up .55%
Class 3 milk 20.47% down .65% (1 month low)
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
- Grains & Oilseeds
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