The U.S. and Mexico have kicked off bilateral trade meetings in Mexico City, marking the start of formal USMCA review discussions ahead of the 2026 review deadline. The first round appears focused on broader economic security, rules of origin, and industrial goods, while agriculture is expected to feature more directly in follow-up talks. For markets, the key takeaway is that dialogue is moving forward, which is better than escalation, but the process still keeps tariff, market-access, and enforcement risk alive. For agriculture, corn, livestock, dairy, and SPS-related disputes remain the areas to watch, especially if the U.S. pushes Mexico harder on fair-trade rules or if Mexico resists changes that could affect cross-border flows.
The 45Z public hearing tomorrow is scheduled for 9:00 a.m. Central Time on May 28. For markets, it is a key biofuel policy event for ethanol, soybean oil, renewable diesel, biodiesel, SAF, and related feedstocks. The focus will be whether Treasury and the IRS provide enough clarity around credit eligibility, carbon-intensity scoring, registration, certification, transferability, and restrictions on foreign feedstocks. For agriculture, clearer 45Z rules would be supportive for domestic demand tied to corn ethanol and soy-based fuels, but uncertainty remains around final modeling assumptions, treatment of imported feedstocks, and how quickly producers can rely on the rules for 2025–26 credit claims.
Brazil’s government has agreed to include several agribusiness-backed measures in a broader 2026 fuel tax bill, giving the rural caucus a partial policy win. The bill’s main goal is to offset revenue losses from fuel tax cuts by using extraordinary federal revenue tied to oil price shocks, but the final text also adds benefits for agriculture. Key provisions would allow ethanol producers to use accumulated tax credits to offset other federal taxes and would broaden the number of companies eligible for tax suspension when buying unprocessed agricultural products. For the market, this is supportive for Brazil’s biofuel and agribusiness sectors, especially ethanol, but it also highlights the government’s willingness to bend fiscal rules and negotiate sector-specific relief to maintain political support.
Mexico and the European Union signed a renewed free trade agreement, modernizing a deal that had been in place since 2000 and signaling both sides’ effort to reduce dependence on U.S. and Chinese goods. The agreement comes just ahead of Mexico’s USMCA discussions with the U.S., adding a strategic trade-policy backdrop. For agriculture, the deal is notable because it removes roughly 95% of tariffs on exported goods, including EU dairy, meat, pork, cereals, fruit and pasta, while also opening Europe to more Mexican exports such as coffee, fruit and chocolate. Net-net, this is modestly negative for U.S. ag competitiveness over time, as Mexico gains more non-U.S. trade optionality and the EU improves access into a key North American market.
China and Cuba held agriculture talks in Beijing aimed at expanding bilateral cooperation, with Chinese Vice-Minister of Agriculture Zhang Zhili meeting Cuba’s Deputy Agriculture Minister Telce González. The meeting fits into Beijing’s broader effort to support Havana as U.S. pressure intensifies through sanctions, indictments, and military rhetoric. China is backing Cuba both materially and diplomatically, including a reported 60,000-tonne rice donation and public support for Cuban sovereignty. From an agriculture and trade perspective, the headline reinforces China’s use of food aid and farm-sector cooperation as a geopolitical tool, while also highlighting Cuba’s need for outside food supply support amid tighter U.S. policy pressure.
Argentina’s national government ordered mandatory conciliation in the oilseed workers’ labor dispute, effectively ending the strike as of 3:00 p.m. The move forces the union and employers back to the negotiating table and temporarily restores activity in the soybean crushing/export sector. For markets, the key takeaway is that near-term disruption risk to Argentine soymeal and soyoil shipments has eased, though the underlying labor dispute remains unresolved and could re-emerge if talks fail.
The EU has rejected Brazil’s request for a transition period to comply with the bloc’s antimicrobial-use rules, removing Brazil from the list of approved countries allowed to export animal products such as beef to the EU. Starting September 3, Brazil will no longer be permitted to ship those products into the bloc unless it meets EU standards, which prohibit antimicrobials for growth promotion and restrict certain medicines used in animals. The direct volume impact may be limited compared with Brazil’s larger export markets, but the headline is negative for Brazil’s meat sector because it raises compliance and reputational concerns, could redirect product into other markets, and reinforces how SPS and antibiotic-use rules are becoming a bigger trade barrier in global animal protein markets.
The Strait of Hormuz headline remains highly fluid and continues to drive energy market volatility. Iranian state TV reported a draft interim peace framework that would restore shipping traffic through Hormuz, lift the U.S. naval blockade around Iranian ports, and establish an Iran–Oman oversight mechanism for the strait. However, the White House quickly denied the report, calling the alleged MOU a fabrication, which keeps the market from fully removing the geopolitical risk premium. Crude oil initially sold off on hopes of a deal, with Brent reportedly dropping nearly 4%, but until there is confirmed agreement from both sides, energy, freight, diesel, and veg oil markets are likely to remain headline-driven.
The Rogers roll begins tomorrow and will last three days. During the roll, positions are shifted out of the nearby futures contracts and into the next deferred contracts, meaning exposure is typically rolled forward along the curve rather than exited outright. In grains, this can create additional volume and spread activity as nearby contracts are sold and deferred contracts are bought over the roll window.
Costco and Hormel report earnings tomorrow.
Corn
B 4000 u 500 c 11 to 11 1/4
B 1200 n 470/480 cs 2 1/8 to 2 3/8
B 1000 n 485 c 3
S 200 h 500/480 ps 10 7/8
B 1000 n 530 c 5/8
B 1000 n 490 c 2 3/8
S 1000 n 460 c 8 ¾ to 8 5/8
S 1000 n 455 c 10 1/2
S 3000 sd n 480 c 10 ¾ to 10 1/2
B 3000 n 470 c 1 ¾ to 1 7/8
B 500 n 470 c 5 1/8 to 5
S 1000 sd n 470 c 15 ½ to 15 1/8
S 800 n 460 straddles 24 ¼ to 23 5/8
S 1000 n 465 c 6 ½ to 6 1/4
B 750 n 460 c vs s 1500 n 490 c 3 ¾
B 100 sd q 510 c vs s 460 p ¾ cr
B 750 u 500/550 cs 7 to 7 ¼
B 400 v 600 c 4 1/8
S 400 v 570 c 6 1/2
B 1000 z 550 c 11 ¾ to 12
B 4000 n 475/485 cs 1 3/4
S 500 u 550 c 4 ½
B 500 n 465 c cs s 1000 n 495 c paying 3/4
B 500 z 500/550 cs 11 ¾
B 200 n 480 p 30 3/4
B 300 nz -20 cso c vs s 300 nz -30 cso p paying 3/4
B 200 uz -15 cso c vs s 200 uz -25 cso p paying 1 ¾
B 1300 u 460 p 23 ¼ vs 463
B 500 u 455 straddles vs s n 455 straddles 33 5/8 db
S 350 n 460 straddles 24 ¼ to 24
S 300 z 500 c 11 1/8 vs 478 1/2
On a block
B 500 u 505 c 10 7/8 vs 462 3/4
B 1000 u 500/550 cs 7 1/4
S 2000 sd n 480 c 10 3/8
Beans
S 1000 n 1200 c 15 ¼ to 14 1/4
S 150 u 1180 straddles 78 7/8
B 1000 x 1200 c 42 ¼ vs 1184
B 1000 x 1280/1380 cs 12 3/8
B 900 q 1180/1190/1200 call trees collecting 20 7/8
B 1500 q 1180/1200 cs vs s 1170 p 11 5/8 cr vs 1184 3/4
B 300 q 1110 p 5 7/8
S 200 x 1140 p 26 7/8
B 500 u 1240 c vs s 1000 u 1380 c 11 7/8 db vs 1175
S 500 x 1300/1380 cs 7 7/8 vs 1176 1/2
B 400 q 1280 c 8
B 100 x 1600 c 1 3/4
S 500 v 1300 c 14
S 300 x 1200 c 40 5/8 vs 1181 1/4
B 300 h 1190 p vs s 600 h 1250 c collecting 18
On a block
B 800 u 1240 c 18 vs 1173
Soymeal
B 550 n 330/290 ps vs s 355 c 5.75 db
B 400 z 310p/340c strangles 20.00 to 20.35
B 500 q 330 c vs s 500 z 370 c 3.10 db
B 200 n 350/370 cs 1.35 vs 330.5
B 1000 friday 332/336 cs 1.00 db
S 300 u 310 p 7.50 to 7.35
B 250 n 329 straddles 14.30
Bean oil
B 300 n 75/69 ps 1.705
B 250 zn +6.00 cso c vs s 250 nz +6.00 c paying .500
B 1000 n 80 c vs s 70 p .300 to .350
B 500 q 75 c 2.105 to 2.180
B 300 z 5950/56 ps .485
S 200 n 75/7150 ps 1.380
S 200 n 81 c .430
Wheat
B 425 n 640 c vs s 850 n 680 c 2 ½ db
B 300 z 700 c 37
B 500 z 650 c 54 3/8 to 54 3/4
B 200 u 530 p 2 1/2
S 500 n 640 c 14 5/8
B 500 u 640 c 37 ¾ vs 640 3/4
B 1000 u 680/715 cs 7 5/8 to 7 7/8
S 200 z 660/760 cs 26 1/2
S 100 z 670/570 ps 44
S 1000 n 620/590 ps 11 ¾ to 11 5/8
S 300 n 625 straddles 40 1/8 to 39 3/4
On a block
S 1000 z 700 c 36 1/8
Kc wheat
B 2000 z 750/800 cs 11 ½ to 11 3/4
B 500 n 700/750 cs 7 5/8 vs 668 1/2
B 400 z 770/1200 cs and 400 z 650/550 ps 52 ¾ vs 687
B 200 z 725/825 cs vs s 625 p 3 ½ db
S 500 w1 680 c 9 1/8
S 500 n 650 p 13 to 11 ½
Hogs
Bought 350 June 98/94 put spread 1x2 paid 1.00
Bought 100 June 95/92 put spread 1x2 paid .15 up to .1750
Sold 1000 Oct 84 puts @ 4.05 down to 3.750
Sold 300 June 96/106 call spread @ 1.80 down to 1.70
Bought 400 Ot 84/76 put spread paid 2.45
Bought 350 Oct 92 calls paid 2.7750 up to 2.80
Bought 200 Aug 104 calls paid 2.50 up to 2.55
Sold 300 Aug 106 calls @ 1.875 covered 99.550 On a Block
Bought 250 Aug 102/116 call spread paid 2.725 up to 2.75
Bought 150 June 92 puts paid .10
Live Cattle
Bought 1500 Aug 238/222 put spread v. 262 calls paid 2.425 up to 2.625
Bought 400 June 250/245 put spread paid 1.175 up to 1.20
Sold 100 June 256 calls @ .6750 down to .650 covered 251.575
Sold 250 Aug 250 puts @ 11.50 down to 11.150
Bought 500 Aug 246 calls paid 3.20 up to 3.525
Bought 500 Aug 226 puts paid 1.900 up to 2.00
Sold 300 June 254 calls @ .90 down to .675
Feeder Cattle
Sold 250 Aug 362 calls @ 8.40
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