The June 18 USDA Cattle on Feed report looks bullish cattle versus expectations. On-feed came in at 102.1% of last year, slightly below the trade average of 102.5%, while May placements were the key surprise at only 90.3%, well below the average estimate of 94.5%. Marketings were also light at 88.2%, just under expectations, but the bigger story is the sharp drop in placements, which points to tighter fed cattle supplies down the road. Overall, the report confirms that high feeder costs and limited cattle availability continue to restrict feedlot inflows, keeping the forward supply picture supportive for live cattle.
El Niño is raising risk for global food production, but the UN’s broader supply outlook remains generally favorable. The main concerns are sugar production in India and Thailand during 2026–2027, potential disruptions to fish catches from changing sea temperatures, and rice production risks that could reduce the existing long-term supply overhang. The report notes that strong reservoir water levels should help offset some El Niño-driven dryness, so the takeaway is supportive risk for sugar and rice prices, but not yet a broad global food-supply crisis.
Egg prices have moved lower after the bird-flu-driven inflation spike earlier this year, and that is now weighing on Kroger’s sales metrics. Kroger said egg deflation created a meaningful 64 basis point headwind to identical sales excluding fuel and also pressured gross margin, disappointing expectations for margin expansion. The key takeaway is that the egg market has shifted from tight supply/inflation to oversupply/deflation, which is good for consumers but negative for grocers that benefited from higher pricing earlier in the year.
Export sales were mostly supportive for grains, led by another strong corn number with 1.157 MMT old crop and 519k tons new crop, keeping total commitments well above last year and reinforcing the strong U.S. export pace. Wheat was also constructive at 400.8k tons, with HRW and white wheat doing most of the work, though total commitments remain behind last year early in the new crop year. Soybeans were decent but not enough to change the bigger picture, with commitments still running well below last year, while soymeal remains the strongest part of the soy complex with commitments up sharply year over year. Bean oil remains the weak link, with minimal sales and commitments far below last year.
Brazil is pressing the EU to revisit new trade barriers on Brazilian meat and steel, with President Lula using the G7 sidelines to push European leaders for better market access. The dispute centers on EU restrictions scheduled for September 3 on Brazilian meat, offal, fish and honey after Brussels said Brazil did not provide enough proof that producers meet EU health standards, especially around antimicrobial use. Lula is trying to frame the issue within the broader EU-Mercosur agreement, arguing that Brazil needs fair treatment given its dominant role in Mercosur and its large export volumes in beef, poultry, sugar and ethanol. For markets, the headline is supportive for Brazilian exporters if restrictions are eased, but it also highlights rising food-trade friction at a time when the EU is trying to protect domestic producers and enforce tighter health standards.
The jobless claims data was slightly firmer for the economy, with initial claims slipping to 226,000, but the four-week average and continuing claims both moved higher, suggesting the labor market is still solid but showing some gradual softening underneath.
CME is suing the CFTC after the regulator allowed Kalshi to list cryptocurrency perpetual futures, arguing these products should legally be treated as swaps, not futures. CME says the CFTC bypassed formal rulemaking and ignored congressional direction, creating an uneven playing field while allowing highly leveraged, never-expiring crypto contracts to trade on a futures-exchange framework. The fight matters because perpetuals are a major offshore crypto product, and bringing them into U.S.-regulated markets could open a large new retail-driven trading segment. CME’s concern is both regulatory and competitive: if Kalshi can offer these products under CFTC approval, CME risks losing control of a fast-growing derivatives category while also arguing that retail traders are being exposed to excessive leverage and risk.
The June Philadelphia Fed report was better than expected, with the headline factory index rising to 10.3 from -0.4 in May, showing a clear rebound in regional manufacturing activity. The strength was led by a sharp improvement in new orders to 27.3, better shipments at 14.9, and employment moving back into positive territory at 7.9. The caution point is inflation: prices paid rose to 53.2, showing input costs remain elevated, while prices received fell to 20.3, suggesting companies may have less ability to pass those costs on. Overall, the report is growth-positive but still inflation-sensitive, which keeps some pressure on the Fed/rate outlook and could limit the bullish read-through for broader markets.
Corn
B 5000 z 490/530 cs 6 1/8
S 6000 h 520/560 cs 5 to 4 3/4
S 500 n 425 c 2 7/8
S 400 h 475p/510c strangles 51 1/8
B 500 q 430 p 12 5/8
B 150 v 490 c 13 1/8 vs 442 3/4
S 900 sd q 450 c 13 1/8
S 1000 q 455/425 ps 20 7/8 vs 423 3/4
B 300 h 525/575 cs 5 3/8 to 5 5/8
B 2400 z 450/500 cs vs s 420 p 1 1/8 cr
B 1000 u 430 c 16
S 5000 u 495 c 3 3/4
S 1500 h 640 c 3 to 2 7/8
S 500 u 445 c 11 1/4
B 500 sd n 440 c 9
B 700 u 550 c 1 3/4
B 1000 u 530 c 2 to 2 1/8
B 375 h 480 c vs s 750 h 550 c 6 1/4
B 1500 u 440/460 cs 5 1/4
S 1700 z 470 c vs b 1700 u 480 c 12 ½ cr vs u 427
B 400 sd n 460 c 2 5/8
S 2500 h 640 c 3 ¼ to 3 1/8
S 1000 h 590 c 5 ¼ to 5 1/8
B 700 h 550 c 8 1/2
B 100 w2 370 p 5/8
On a block
S 66,000 u 550/600 cs 1/2
B 10,000 z 490/530 cs 6 3/8
S 7,000 h 600 c 3 ½ to 3 3/8
Beans
B 500 sd n 1150 c 6 1/2
B 1600 u 1250/1400 cs 5 3/8 vs 1131 1/2
B 200 h 1180/1200 cs 6 3/4
B 600 x 1200 c 27 1/8
S 250 v 1200/1260 cs 10 7/8
B 1000 u 1250/1400 cs 4 1/2
S 100 h 1350 c 13
S 250 q 1180 c 7 5/8
B 1500 n 1140 c 3 7/8 vs 1123
On a block
B 16,500 u 1250/1400 cs 4 5/8 to 5
Soymeal
S 1000 z 300p/315c strangles 22.85 to 22.80 vs 303.5
B 500 n 310 p 10.35 vs 301.1
S 200 q 305/350 cs 5.30 vs 301.5
S 200 n 320 c .40 vs 300.9
B 700 n 300 p 3.75 vs 300.0
S 500 n 300 p 2.95
S 400 n 315 c .50
B 700 n 300 p 3.70
Bean oil
B 1000 n 72/70 ps 1.380 vs 69.70
B 1500 z 75 c 1.480
B 500 q 7150/7750 cs .620
S 500 n 72 p 2.515 vs 6980
B 1000 q 6750 p 1.620 to 1.770
S 750 q 70/7350 cs .785 vs 6810
S 2500 z 70/64 ps 3.540 vs 6573
B 1000 z 90 c .325 to .330
B 2000 q 70 c 1.450 vs 68.33
S 300 n 68 p .395 to .350
B 200 q 76 c .335 to .350
B 200 n 68 p vs s 400 n 66 p .065 cr
B 200 u 67 p 2.485
B 300 z 75 c 1.405 to 1.415
B 1000 q 75 c vs s q 6250 p .310 cr vs 6696
B 800 u 7450/82 cs .490
S 2000 v 5850 p .730 to .710
S 1000 q 67 p 1.560 to 1.500
B 1000 u 8150 c .230
B 500 u 63 p 1.130 to 1.140
S 500 q 7250p/76c strangle 5.420 vs 6800
S 3000 q 70 c 1.450 to 1.420 vs 6833
S 1000 n 69 p .585 to .560
On a block
S 11,000 u 80/90 cs .160
B 1000 u 70 c 1.660
Wheat
B 1000 z 700 c 22 1/8 vs 632 1/2
S 200 u 620 straddles 60
S 800 n 620 c 6 3/8 to 6 1/8 vs 608 1/2
B 1000 u 650/750 cs 12 1/8
S 300 u 580p/615c strangles 39 5/8
On a block
B 6600 u 700/850 cs 6 3/4
B 1700 h 860 c 10 3/4
B 3750 u 660 c 14 5/8 vs 615 1/2
Kc wheat
B 200 n 640 p 9
S 200 n 670 straddles 27 1/8 vs 654
Hogs
Bought 100 April 82 calls paid 6.00
Bought 300 oct 100 c .375
Bought 750 feb 82c/76p strangles vs selling dec 84c/78 strangle collecting .850
Bought 200 oct 98 calls 2.100
Bought 300 july 65/68 call spreads .600
Sold 100 oct 90 calls 1.350
Live Cattle
Sold 300 Dec 304 calls @ .10
Bought 250 Dec 212 puts paid 1.80 up to 1.85
Sold 150 April 244/254 call spread @ 3.80
Bought 150 Dec 210/200 put spreads paid .75 up to .80
Bought 300 dec 234/244 call spreads 14.00
Bought 300 oct 222 puts 2.250
Bought 600 aug 246/238 put spreads 2.350 to 2.625
Bought 300 oct 204 puts .075
Bought 300 oct 206 puts .100
Sold 150 oct 215 puts .150
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