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CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

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The USDA’s confirmation of another screwworm case in a Texas goat raises the domestic detection total to 16 and keeps animal-health risk on the market’s radar. The case does not change the broader livestock supply picture by itself, but it reinforces concern that screwworm remains an active threat to U.S. herds, especially if additional cases appear near cattle-producing regions. For markets, the immediate impact is more psychological and risk-premium related than fundamentally bullish, but continued detections could increase biosecurity measures, inspection pressure, and sensitivity in cattle and feeder cattle trade.

 

Apollo’s private-credit redemption cap is a warning sign around liquidity, not an immediate credit default. Investors requested withdrawals far above the fund’s quarterly redemption limit, forcing Apollo to restrict payouts under its normal gate structure. The key concern is that private-credit funds often offer periodic liquidity while holding loans that are not easy to sell quickly, so heavy redemption pressure can expose a mismatch between investor expectations and asset liquidity. For broader markets, this adds to caution around private credit, valuation transparency, and investor confidence, but it does not by itself mean Apollo is insolvent or that the underlying loans are failing.

 

The Hormuz/Iran situation is improving but still has meaningful execution risk. The U.S. is saying the Strait of Hormuz is open, oil is flowing, and frozen Iranian funds could eventually be used to buy U.S. agriculture, which is a supportive headline for ag demand. However, Iran is disputing parts of the U.S. version of events, especially around nuclear inspections and new commitments, while France is warning that sanctions relief will require strong oversight guarantees. For markets, this reduces some energy risk premium if Hormuz stays open, but ag traders will likely need confirmed purchases before treating the frozen-funds story as real demand.

 

China narrowing its cumulative fiscal deficit for the first time in more than two years is a sign that Beijing is leaning toward fiscal restraint even as domestic demand stays weak and economic growth slows. That is not a stimulus-friendly signal for markets. It suggests policymakers are more focused on controlling debt, local-government finances, and long-term financial stability than delivering a major demand boost. For commodities, the takeaway is bearish-to-neutral: China may still support targeted sectors, but broad demand recovery remains muted, so rallies built on hopes of aggressive China stimulus should be treated carefully.

 

A weaker yuan midpoint is a slightly defensive macro signal for ag commodities. It suggests Beijing may be leaning against yuan strength to protect exporters, especially with China’s domestic recovery still uneven and lending rates held unchanged in June at 3.00% for the 1-year LPR and 3.50% for the 5-year LPR. A weaker yuan makes dollar-priced imports like U.S. soybeans, corn, soybean meal, and soybean oil more expensive for Chinese buyers, so it can quietly pressure demand expectations if the move continues. This is not a major bearish shock by itself, but it adds caution to rallies and reinforces that China policy support may come through currency management rather than aggressive rate cuts or demand stimulus.  

 

Goolsbee’s comments lean cautiously hawkish. He said inflation is still well above target and moving the wrong direction, with services inflation especially concerning unless the Fed sees evidence that the pressure is temporary. At the same time, he pushed back against a true stagflation setup because the labor market remains stable. His comments also suggest sympathy for Fed Chair Warsh’s preference for less forward guidance and less speculation about future rate moves, meaning the Fed may want markets to focus more on incoming data than on trying to price a pre-committed rate path.

 

image-20260623044354-1

 

 

Overnight option activity 

Corn

S 375 z 465 c 15 3/8 

B 250 z 550/700 cs 2 5/8 

B 500 u 420 c 17 1/8 to 18 1/4

S 100 n 410 p 3

B 300 z 440 p 24

B 1000 q 445/460 cs 3

 

Beans

B 150 sd u 1150 c 31 1/8 

B 300 x 1150 c 41 1/2

B 500 x 1400/1600 cs 2 7/8 

 

Soymeal

B 100 u 295/275 ps 5.00

 

Bean oil

B 500 v 6850 c vs s z 62p/79c strangle .230 to .135 cr

 

Open interest changes

Corn

Sept 450/470 call spread buy and selt 420 put sales were new. Dec 400 put sale was closing.  Short sept 470/450 put spread buy vs sept 450/430 put spread sales were rolling down. 

 

Beans

Nov 1280 call sale, sept 1300 call buy, aug 1220 call buy and nov 1220/1320 cs buy were new.  Nov 1200 call sale was closing.

 

Soymeal

Sept 310/360 call spread buy, oct 300 call buy and sept 310/350 call spread buys were new.

 

Bean oil 

Sept 76 call buy and oct 72/78 call spread buys were new

 

Cvol

Ags 22.17% down .24%

Corn 30.80% down 1.18%

Beans 18.00% down .61%

Soymeal 21.82% up .40%

Bean oil 26.54% up .12%

Wheat 29.59% down .31%

Feeder cattle 14.78% up .41%

Live cattle 15.62% up .28%

Lean hogs 22.21% up .67%

Class 3 milk 19.39% down .35%

 

 

Corn

image-20260623044354-2

Beans

image-20260623044354-3

Soymeal

image-20260623044354-4

Bean oil

image-20260623044354-5

Wheat

image-20260623044354-6

Kc wheat 

image-20260623044354-7

Miax wheat

image-20260623044354-8

Oats

image-20260623044354-9

Rough rice

image-20260623044354-10

Cotton

image-20260623044354-11

Canola

image-20260623044354-12

Feeder cattle 

image-20260623044354-13

Live cattle 

image-20260623044354-14

Lean hogs

image-20260623044354-15

 

 

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