Today is LTD for all July grain options.
Markets are starting the day with a clear risk-off tone led by technology. The Nasdaq is under pressure after Apple weakness and fresh concerns that AI-related spending and valuations may be overextended, with Samsung, SK Hynix and other chip-linked names selling off sharply. Bloomberg also highlighted investor outflows from U.S. equities and record withdrawals from tech funds, which suggests this is more than a one-stock move. For commodities, the broader macro read is mildly bearish from a risk-appetite standpoint, while lower Brent crude below 73 as traffic continues through the Strait of Hormuz removes some of the immediate energy-risk premium.
Europe’s methane regulation is becoming a bigger risk for the global LNG market, but it is not an immediate supply cutoff story. The U.S., Qatar, Nigeria and Algeria are warning that the EU’s methane import rules could make future gas contracts harder to execute because suppliers may not be able to verify emissions across complex production, pipeline, liquefaction and shipping systems. The key concern is 2027 and beyond, when new monitoring and reporting requirements begin to take effect, with tougher methane-intensity rules following later. For Europe, the risk is that stricter climate rules narrow the pool of available LNG supply, raise gas prices, and increase dependence on fewer compliant suppliers. The EU is trying to balance climate policy with energy security, but if major exporters push back, this could become a meaningful price-supportive issue for European gas markets.
Fed commentary leaned cautious, with Williams and Goolsbee both signaling that inflation is still not moving convincingly back toward target. Williams pushed the expected return to 2% inflation from 2027 into 2028 and said policy is “well positioned,” suggesting the Fed is not in a hurry to ease. Goolsbee was more concerned, noting that core inflation remains too high, services inflation is still the bigger problem, and some inflation pressures may prove more persistent than temporary. The market takeaway is that the Fed is still waiting for clearer evidence that inflation is cooling, which keeps a higher-for-longer rate backdrop in place and can be a headwind for risk assets and commodities through the dollar and interest-rate channels.
China’s 231.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo injection at 1.40% is a liquidity-support move, not a new easing surprise. The PBOC is adding short-term cash to keep bank funding conditions stable, especially around month-end when liquidity demand tends to rise. This fits with China’s broader effort to better manage short-term rates, including the new overnight reverse repo tool it plans to introduce at the end of June. For markets, the takeaway is modestly supportive for Chinese risk sentiment and commodities, but it is not the same as a rate cut or major stimulus package. For ags, it helps prevent tighter credit conditions from becoming another headwind, but the bigger demand signals remain Chinese import buying, margins, currency direction, and confidence in the broader economy.
Argentina’s soybean harvest is effectively complete at 99% nationally as of June 25, 2026, matching last week, last year, and just fractionally trailing the 5‑year average of 100%, with key provinces like Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Entre Ríos, La Pampa and Santa Fe all at 99–100% harvested. Meanwhile, corn harvest progress stands at 60% nationally, only two points ahead of last week and running behind both last year (64%) and the 5‑year average (64%), with notable regional divergence: progress is modest in Buenos Aires (67%) and Córdoba (65%), very advanced in Entre Ríos (99%), and still sluggish in La Pampa (19%), while Santa Fe is relatively advanced at 82%, underscoring that soybeans are no longer a timing variable while corn remains meaningfully behind its typical pace and last year’s progress.
The USDA Hogs and Pigs report was supportive for lean hogs because supplies came in below trade expectations across most major categories. All hogs and pigs were 100.0% of last year, versus the average estimate of 100.9%, while market hogs were 100.1% versus expectations of 101.1%. The weight breakdown was also lighter than expected, especially the 50-119 lb category at 99.5% versus 101.0% expected, pointing to tighter forward supplies. The breeding herd was 98.8% of last year, below the 99.3% estimate, and farrowing intentions were mostly lower, with Jun-Aug at 97.8% versus 98.6% expected. Overall, the report leans bullish because it shows less herd expansion than the market was expecting, with tighter supply risk extending into late summer and fall.
The Hormuz risk premium is back in the market. According to the WSJ, U.S. officials say Iran attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz, and the UN shipping agency has now temporarily paused its evacuation plan for stranded ships and seafarers until there is more clarity. This does not mean the Strait is fully closed, but it is a major warning shot. Iran is effectively telling the market that vessels outside its approved routes may not receive safe-passage guarantees, and that owners, operators, and ship commanders could bear the risk themselves. The rest of the world needs to show more backbone in dealing with Iran, because allowing Tehran to dictate passage terms through one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints creates a dangerous precedent. The market takeaway is bullish crude, freight, insurance, and broader energy security risk, because even without a full closure, Iran is showing it can disrupt confidence in Hormuz flows whenever it chooses.
|
|
Price
|
Change
|
% Change
| |
|
Dow
|
52,294
|
(45.00)
|
-0.09
| |
|
Crude
|
69.32
|
(2.60)
|
-3.62
| |
|
US Dollar
|
100.9850
|
(0.208)
|
-0.21
| |
|
Gold
|
4,047.14
|
20.410
|
0.51
| |
|
US 2/10 Swap
|
28.8390
|
1.9260
|
-
| |
|
VIX
|
20.29
|
1.40
|
-
| |
| | | | | |
|
CBOT Ags Volume & Open Interest
| | | |
| |
Previous Volume
|
Change in OI
|
Options Volume
|
Change in Options OI
|
|
Corn
|
707,389
|
(5,044)
|
166,526
|
8,846
|
|
SRW
|
127,472
|
(1,584)
|
17,618
|
1,631
|
|
HRW
|
70,985
|
(7,152)
|
-
|
1,947
|
|
Soybeans
|
324,724
|
(25,894)
|
57,856
|
4,730
|
|
Meal
|
191,313
|
(8,547)
|
13,433
|
2,152
|
|
Oil
|
281,072
|
(8,479)
|
23,956
|
4,744
|
|
Feeders
|
17,595
|
1,292
|
4,091
|
1,154
|
|
Live Cattle
|
47,763
|
(503)
|
18,688
|
3,323
|
|
Hogs
|
60,879
|
2,921
|
19,950
|
(660)
|
| | | | | |
Overnight ag option activity
Corn
S 3000 sd q 440 p 13 ¾ to 12 1/4
S 300 sd q 440p/445c strangles 25 3/4
B 300 u 530 c 1 7/8
B 150 z 470/500 cs 6 1/4
B 200 w2 420/405 1x2 ps paying 2
S 100 z 450 c 22 1/8 vs 443
B 800 z 475/500 cs 5 to 5 1/4
Beans
S 1300 x 1150 p 45 to 42
Open interest changes
Corn
Sept 450/480 cs buy was rolling down a long. Dec 525 call buy and sept 420 put sales were closing...sept 430/450 call spread buy was new.
Beans
Nov 1080p/1160c strangle sale had the call sale closing and the put sale new.
Soymeal
Dec 300 put sale was closing.
Bean oil
Sept 75 and dec 75 call buys were new.
Lean hogs
Oct 86 put sale and aug 105 call sales were closing.
Live cattle
Dec 236/224 put spread buy was rolling a long.
Cvol
Ags 22.90% up 1.54%
Corn 33.80% up 3.20%
Beans 18.47% up 2.06%
Soymeal 22.73% up 2.36%
Bean oil 26.09% up .71%
Wheat 28.96% up 2.01%
Feeder cattle 14.58% up .16%
Live cattle 15.18% up .11%
Lean hogs 21.55% down .05%
Class 3 milk 19.20% up .63%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Cotton
Canola
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
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