Tomorrow Wasde and quarterly grain stocks.
The EU-China trade talks took on a more constructive tone, but Europe is clearly signaling that it wants measurable progress rather than more discussion. The two sides agreed to set up a joint monitoring system for trade flows and work on trade balancing, market access, investment issues, and export controls, with an October deadline for tangible progress. EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said there is “much more understanding” from China than before, but also made clear the current trade imbalance is not sustainable, with Chinese exports to Europe rising while Europe’s market share in China shrinks. For markets, this lowers the risk of an immediate EU-China break but keeps tariffs, sanctions, rare earth access, and industrial policy tensions in play. For commodities and agriculture, the direct impact is limited for now, but a better EU-China trade relationship would be supportive for global demand confidence, while failure to show progress by October could renew trade friction and weigh on broader risk appetite.
USDA export inspections were strongest for corn, with weekly shipments at 1.786 MMT, up 21.7% from last week and 29.3% above last year, pushing year-to-date inspections 25.3% ahead of last year and confirming corn’s export demand remains a key supportive feature. Soybeans also posted a better weekly number at 419k MT, well above last week and last year, with Mexico, Japan and China among the top destinations, but the larger story remains softer because year-to-date soybean inspections are still 18.7% behind last year. Wheat was the weak spot, with inspections of 358k MT down from both last week and last year, leaving wheat demand neutral-to-soft for now. Overall, the report is bullish corn, mildly supportive but not trend-changing for beans, and soft for wheat.
July 2027 grain CSOs starting today is more of a risk-management and liquidity development than a direct flat-price signal. Calendar spread options let commercial hedgers and traders buy protection on the spread between crop years or delivery months instead of trading outright futures, which is useful for managing carry, inversions, old-crop/new-crop risk, and elevator or processor roll exposure. CME describes grain CSOs as a more precise way to hedge adverse spread moves, with defined option premium risk rather than open-ended futures-spread exposure. The key takeaway is that the market now has another tool to express 2027 curve views in corn, soybeans, and wheat, though early liquidity will likely be the main thing to watch.
The corn/bean ratio is telling the market that soybeans are very expensive relative to corn. At roughly 2.65 SX26/CZ26, the ratio is sitting at the highest level shown on the chart and near the 100th percentile, meaning this is an extreme relative-value level. A ratio this high usually signals the market is trying to make soybeans more attractive versus corn, which could encourage more soybean acres and discourage corn acres if it holds into planting decisions. For traders, the setup says the spread is stretched and vulnerable to mean reversion, either through corn gaining on beans, beans losing to corn, or both.
ICE’s plan to list monetary policy futures highlights how important central-bank expectations have become for markets. These contracts would give traders a more direct way to price and hedge the path of interest-rate decisions around Fed, ECB, or BOE policy meetings, instead of relying only on broader rate products. For commodities, the impact is indirect but important: shifting rate-cut or rate-hike expectations can quickly move the dollar, Treasury yields, risk appetite, and funding costs, all of which can spill into corn, soybeans, energy, metals, and currencies. In short, this is another sign that monetary policy remains a major driver of cross-asset volatility.
Paris corn is sending a bullish weather-warning signal. A severe European heat wave has pushed Euronext corn higher for a fourth straight session, with the most-active contract up around 11% over two weeks and November corn reportedly reaching a record 226.75/ton. The bigger message is that corn has rallied above wheat, which is unusual because wheat normally carries a premium due to its food use. That spread reversal tells the market is becoming more concerned about EU corn supply, especially with France—the EU’s largest corn producer—hit by extreme heat. The August contract trading above November also shows backwardation, meaning nearby supply is being priced tighter than deferred supply. For U.S. corn, this is supportive from a global risk-premium standpoint, but Tuesday’s USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports are still the bigger near-term driver; if U.S. acreage is confirmed near 94.9 million acres, that would keep a large-crop ceiling over rallies unless weather problems expand.
Corn
B 5000 q 410 c 12 ¼ to 13 1/2
B 8000 q 410 p 12 ½ to 13 1/2
S 1750 q 409 p 13 3/4
B 500 u 420 c vs s 1000 u 460 c 3 7/8 db
B 500 q 380 p 2 1/4
S 1000 q 410 p 11 7/8 vs 411
B 300 u 395 p 8 ½ vs 411 1/2
B 4000 u 450 c 5 ¼ to 5 5/8
B 200 z 430/400 ps vs s 470 c 2 ½ db
B 300 u 550 c 7/8
B 500 q 480 c 1 1/4
B 1000 z 600 c 2
B 3200 sd q 450/470 cs 3 3/8
B 200 u 415/440/465 call flies 3 7/8
S 150 w1 new crop 435 c 5 1/8
S 150 z 440 straddles 48
B 500 sd q 410 p 4 to 4 1/4
B 1000 w1 415 c vs s 405 p ¼ cr to 1 db
B 500 w1 new crop 435/445 cs 2 5/8
B 2000 u 400 p 9 to 10 1/4
S 300 z 480/530 cs 5 1/2
S 500 u 380p/460c strangles 7 7/8
S 200 z 340 p 3/4
B 1000 q 400 p 6 ¼ to 6 3/8
B 800 q 550 c 3/8
S 1000 sd q 440 c 9 ¼ to 9
S 350 sd u 385 p 1 7/8
S 100 z 430 p 22
On a block
S 650 u 410 c 16 ½ vs 411
S 500 u 440 c 7 1/8 vs 411
Beans
S 1250 x 1070 p 12 1/2
S 575 sd q 1160 c 12 1/2
S 500 x 1090 p 19 vs 1139 1/2
S 2000 sd q 1160 c 15 3/8 to 12 1/2
B 250 x 1300 c 7 7/8
S 250 x 1250 c 13 1/4
B 250 xn +10 c vs s -60 p 2 db
B 500 q 1140 c 13 3/8 vs 1122 1/2
B 500 n27 1300 c 25 5/8 vs 1172 1/4
S 700 sd u 1160 c 21 1/2
B 3000 q 1100 p 11 7/8 vs 1118 1/2
S 350 x 1150 straddles 86 1/2
B 500 w1 1110/1090 1x2 ps 2 ¼ db
B 200 w1 new crop 1150 c 10 1/2
S 750 sd q 1160 c 15 3/8
S 1000 sd q 1170 c 14 to 13 3/4
On a block
S 1200 x 1140 straddles 86 1/2
Soymeal
B 500 q 305 c 4.85 to 4.90 vs 302.6
S 100 q 290 p 1.20 vs 302.4
S 400 q 310 c 3.20 to 3.15
B 1000 u 370 c .70
S 300 q 305/300 ps 2.55
S 450 q 315 c 2.70 to 2.55
Bean oil
B 100 u 67 p 1.900
B 100 q 73 c .990
B 300 q 73/7750 cs .470 to .515
Wheat
B 400 q 630 c 3 3/4
B 350 q 570 p 10 1/8
B 700 q 600/640 cs 7
B 100 q 600 c 12 1/8 vs 588 ½
Kc wheat
B 800 q 650/675 cs 4 3/8
S 200 q 620 p and u 620 p 39 1/8 vs 623
Hogs
Sold 1200 Aug 105 calls @ .25 down to .2250
Sold 600 Oct 86/90 call spread @ .825
Sold 750 Dec 90 calls @ .55 down to .50
Sold 400 Dec 80 calls @ 2.0250 down to 2.00
Bought 250 Dec 92 calls paid .400 up o .4250
Bought 1200 Oct 90 calls paid 1.25 up to 1.30
Bought 250 Dec 72/66 puts paid 2.15 up to 2.175
Bought 750 Oct 90 calls paid 1.25 up to 1.2750
Bought 150 July 93/96 call spread paid .95 up to 1.125
Sold 150 Oct 240/242 call spread @ .875
Bought 400 July 87 puts paid .025
Bought 150 July 95/90 put spread paid 1.65 covered 93.525
Bought 200 Aug 95/90 put spreads paid 1.05 covered 97.175
Live Cattle
Sold 1000 Dec 250 calls @ 3.60
Bought 400 Dec 200 puts paid 1.05 up to 1.125
Bought 300 July 245 puts paid 1.92 up to 2.80
Bought 350 Aug 232 puts paid 1.30 up to 1.35
Bought 150 July 245 puts paid 1.90
Bought 200 July/Aug 248/246 put spread paid 1.45
Bought 200 July/Aug 248/246 call spread paid 3.425 up to 3.45
Bought 500 July 246/252 call spread paid .85 up to 1.00
Bought 350 July 245 puts paid 1.75 up to 1.875
Bought 200 July/Aug 247/245 put spread Diag. Paid 1.55
Sold 100 Aug 248/256 call spread @ 1.775
Sold 150 Aug 257 calls @ .7750
Bought 400 Aug 245 puts paid 2.30 up to 2.85
Bought 150 Oct 240/236 put spread paid 1.975
Sold 600 Aug 248/240 combo @ .70 down to .50 Selling the put
Bought 250 July 244/248 call spread paid .95 up to .975
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