Today was last day of the quarter.
USDA’s June 30 Grain Stocks and Acreage reports reinforced a supply-heavy outlook, especially for corn, but the market reaction suggests traders were positioned for an even more bearish result. Corn June 1 stocks came in at 5.295 billion bushels, well above 4.643 billion last year, confirming a large old-crop cushion, while planted acres at 95.343 million were essentially unchanged from March and still large enough to keep the balance sheet comfortable under normal weather. Soybeans were less burdensome but still not tight, with June 1 stocks at 1.061 billion bushels versus 1.008 billion last year and planted acres rising to 85.365 million, up 665,000 acres from March and more than 5% from last year. Bottom line: corn remains the heavier supply story and needs stronger demand or a weather issue to sustain rallies, while soybeans have a better relative demand story from crush, biofuels, and China buying potential, making beans better supported than corn on breaks.
The rates market is starting to price in a more hawkish Fed outcome, with traders building short positions in fed funds futures and assigning roughly a one-in-three chance of a July rate hike. The key signal is not that a hike is guaranteed, but that inflation risk is back in control of the narrative after previously being dominated by labor-market concerns. Rising open interest in August fed funds futures suggests new money is being added to the short-rates trade, while the flattening yield curve points to markets preparing for tighter policy and slower growth. For commodities, this is generally a headwind: higher front-end rates can support the dollar, pressure risk appetite, and make it harder for grains, energies, and metals to rally unless they have their own strong supply-side story.
The USDA is preparing up to 500 million in aid for small and midsize U.S. meatpackers to keep cattle slaughter capacity online as tight cattle supplies, record-high cattle costs, and strong beef demand squeeze packer margins. The reported structure would pay smaller beef plants that maintain certain slaughter volumes versus 2025 levels, with the goal of preventing closures while processors are losing an estimated 300 per head on cattle. Importantly, the aid would exclude the big four — Tyson, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef — which together process roughly 85% of U.S. beef. For the market, this is supportive for regional slaughter capacity and rural competition, but it does not fix the core issue: the U.S. cattle herd is still tight, beef prices remain elevated, and the policy is more about keeping smaller plants alive than creating a quick supply increase.
A Bloomberg piece is flagging that a strengthening El Niño could become another inflation pressure point by disrupting global crop production through droughts, floods and heat waves. The key risk is that Pacific sea-surface temperatures could rise enough to qualify as a “Super El Niño,” raising concern across crops from Brazil to India. Cocoa has already led the commodity rally since late February, while cotton and sugar have also moved higher, and Citigroup warns prices could rise further if crop threats intensify. For markets, the takeaway is that weather risk is moving back into the inflation conversation: even if energy or geopolitics calm down, food commodities could remain supported if El Niño damages production, tightens exportable supplies, and keeps grocery-price pressure alive.
CME is moving to launch new beef trim futures and options tied to 50% lean and 90% lean trim, the key inputs used to make ground beef, hamburgers and meatballs. The timing matters because the U.S. cattle herd has fallen to a 75-year low, retail ground beef prices are at record highs, and imports are rising as the market tries to fill the supply gap. For customers, this is less about adding another cattle contract and more about creating a direct hedging tool for the finished ground beef supply chain — processors, foodservice buyers, retailers and procurement desks. It also signals that beef price volatility has become big enough that CME sees demand for a more precise risk-management product beyond live cattle and feeder cattle futures.
The CUSMA/USMCA review is becoming a bigger trade-risk event for North America, with the U.S., Canada and Mexico set to meet July 1 after months of elevated U.S.–Canada tension. The key agriculture issue is Canada’s protected dairy, poultry and egg system, where Washington argues quotas, tariff-rate quotas and high over-quota tariffs limit access for U.S. exporters. Canada’s “Buy Canadian” policies are another irritant because they may favor domestic suppliers over U.S. products. For markets, this is not an immediate corn/soybean demand story, but it keeps trade retaliation, cross-border ag access, food inflation, and North American supply-chain uncertainty in focus. A constructive review would help sentiment; a breakdown would add another headwind to agriculture trade confidence.
Brazil’s new Plano Safra is another large credit package aimed at keeping commercial agriculture well funded. The headline number is BRL 525.1 billion for medium and large producers, up from BRL 516.2 billion last season, with another BRL 83–85 billion expected for family farming, taking the full package near BRL 608–610 billion. For corn and soybeans, this is not an immediate production shock, but it is longer-term supportive for Brazil’s acreage, input purchases, storage, machinery, and working capital. The market read is mildly bearish global grains/oilseeds over time because Brazil is continuing to finance expansion and competitiveness, even though the package is reportedly below what the farm sector had requested.
Corn
S 2000 z 500 c 6 7/8 to 6 ¾ vs 434 3/4
B 200 u 400 p vs s 400 u 385 p 1/8 db
S 1000 q 410 p 9 3/8
S 1000 u 420 c 14 3/4
S 1000 u 430 c 8 5/8
B 1000 q 410 p 15 1/2
S 1000 z 480 c 8 ¼ vs 431
B 500 q 415 c 10 to 10 1/8
S 700 h 450p/470c strangles 44 ½ vs 449 3/4
B 400 k 465/520 cs vs s 430 p 3/8 cr to 3/8 db
S 800 z 490 c 8 vs 435 3/4
S 1000 u 410 straddles 30 5/8 to 30 1/8 vs 415
S 600 u 430 c 8 5/8
S 1000 q 405 p 7 1/2
B 300 z 430 straddles 43 3/8
B 2000 z 500 c 6 3/8 to 6 7/8
B 1600u 450/460 cs 1 1/8 vs 406 3/4
S 300 q 400p/420c strangles 12 7/8
B 300 x 460 c 11 5/8
S 500 q 410 c 13 3/8
B 500 sd u 440 c vs s 1000 sd u 470 c 1 1/8 db
S 1500 q 425 c 7 ¾ to 7 1/2
B 600 u 410/420 cs 4
B 2500 u 440 c 7 7/8 to 8
B 5000 q 475 c 1 5/8
S 2000 z 550 c 3 ¼ vs 430
B 900 u 450 c vs s u 380 p 1 ½ db vs 411 1/2
B 3500 sd u 425 p vs s sd q 430 p ¾ to 1 db
B 250 z 450/550 cs vs s 410 p ¾ cr
B 2000 q 410/420 cs 4 1/8
B 250 k 460/520 cs vs s 420 p 2 ¼ db
B 500 u 400/385/380 put tree 5/8 db
S 500 z 400 p 10 ½ vs 427 1/2
B 300 x 430 c 20 5/8
B 600 u 470 c 3 1/4
S 350 u 475p/510c strangles 57 1/8 vs 442
B 2500 u 425 c vs s 5000 u 450 c 1/8 cr
S 1000 u 450 c 5 ¾ to 5 5/8
B 500 u 475 c 3 ¼ to 3 3/8
B 200 z 450 c 16 ½ to 16 5/8
B 2500 u 460 c 4 ½ to 4 5/8 vs 410 ½
B 200 z 540c4 1/8
B 100 u 440/470 c 4
B 500 july 2nd 400 p 2 7/8 to 3 1/8
B 3000 z 550/850 cs 3 to 3 1/4
S 1000 q 510 c 3/4
S 200 z 450 c 16 3/8 vs 429 3/4
B 200 z 420/405 ps 6 5/8
Beans
B 1000 sd u 1220 c 3 to 4
B 2000 u 1300 c 1 ¾ to 1 7/8
S 500 x 1240 c 14 1/8 vs 1145
B 500 x 1200/1300 cs 14 5/8 to 15
B 800 x 1160/1240 cs20 1/2
S 300 x 1210 c 19 1/8
S 1000 u 1120 p 31
B 1500 x 1130/1050 ps vs s 1250 c 13 to 15 ¼ db
S 1000 u 1250 c 3 to 2 3/4
B 500 u 1250 c 3
B 100 xn -35/-20 cs vs s -50 p 1 ¾ db
S 1000 x 1100 p 24 to 23 5/8
S 1000 q 1120/1090 ps 13 7/8
S 800 sd q 1110 p 11 ¾ vs 1127
S 350 x 1190 c vs b 700 x 1250 c 1/8 db
B 750 h 1250/1350cs 12 ½ to 14
B 1000 q 1120/1090 ps 13 7/8 to 14 1/8
B 200 x 1150 c 35
B 500 july 2nd 1090/1080 ps 1 3/4
S 200 u 1120 straddles 58
Soymeal
B 300 q 305 c 3.75
B 400 q 300 p vs s q 305/315 cs 1.80 db vs 302.0
B 500 z 300/270 ps vs s q 300 p 6.05 db vs q 300.5
S 300 u 310/320 cs 1.90
B 250 u 310/350 cs vs s 285 p 2.25 db
B 250 u 320 c 2.60 to 2.80
S 250 q 320 c 1.10
Bean oil
S 500 z 65 c 3.770 vs 6496
B 250 v 72/77 cs .640
B 500 q 65 p .830 to .930
S 100 z 60p/68c strangles 4.770 vs 6530
B 400 u 66/6250 ps 1.355 vs 6620
S 500 u 70 p vs b 1000 u 62 p 3.440 cr vs 6575
B 450 q 6750 c 1.040
B 2000 u 8050 c .150
B 2000 q 60 p .150 to .160
S 400 v 5850 p .540
S 200 u 63 p 1.125
B 400 u 75 c .400
B 500 q 68 p 2.310
S 600 q 70 c .540 vs 6661
S 200 q 67/65 ps .910 vs 6659
B 250 q 66 p vs s 500 q 60 p .950 db
B 250 july 2nd 67/65 ps .530
B 400 q 70 p 3.400 to 3.700
B 200 q 7250 p 5.700
On a block
B 800 v 66 c vs 6654 and 800 u 67 c vs 6588 paying 5.040
Wheat
B 2000 u 620/650 cs 4 ¾ vs 579
S 500 u 900 c 1/8
B 100 u 800 c 1/2
B 500 q 590 c 15 ¼ to 15 1/2
B 200 u 600 c 7 3/8
S 500 600 c 15
B 250 u 625 c 8 3/4
S 300 u 580 c 20 3/4vs 577 1/4
S 150 u 605/550 ps 29 1/2
Kc wheat
S 500 q 650 c 10 to 9
B 2000 u 700/800 cs 4
B 4000 u 650/700 cs 11
Hogs
Bought 1000 Oct 90 calls paid 1.325 up to 1.375
Bought 250 Aug 100 puts paid 3.45
Bought 650 Oct 90 calls paid 1.425 up to 1.45
Bought 100 Aug 96 straddles paid 5.10 up to 5.15
Sold 500 Aug 88 puts @ .20 down to .1750
Bought 150 Oct 74/92 strangle paid 2.60 covered 82.40
Bought 300 Feb 82 calls paid 3.25 up to 3.2750
Bought 250 Feb 72 puts paid 2.30 up to 2.50
Bought 300 Aug 85/111 strangle paid .20
Sold 250 Aug 92/88 put spread @ .25 covered 98.90
Live Cattle
Bought 1300 Oct 218 puts paid 1.90 up to 2.1250
Bought 800 Oct 2 18 puts paid 2.075 up to 2.275
Sold 300 July 242 calls @ 1.30 down to 1.075
Bought 200 Agu 235/225 put spread paid 1.65
Sold 100 Aug 242 calls @ 4.775 down to 4.75 covered 242.00
Sold 300 July 244 calls @ .5750 down to .550
Bought 400 Dec 200 puts paid 1.125 up to 1.15
Sold 700 Oct 220 puts @ 2.50 down to 2.325
Sold 1000 Oct 222 puts @ 2.45 down to 2.40
Bought 200 July 246 calls paid .35 covered 242.775
Bought 300 Oct 239/235/231 put fly paid .325 up to .35
Bought 250 Dec 250 calls paid 3.20 up to 3.60
Feeder Cattle
Sold 250 Aug 370/390 call spread @ 5.05 down to 4.450
Bought 200 Aug 380 calls paid 2.75 up to 2.85
Bought 150 Aug 360 puts paid 6.85 up to 7.0
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