The latest crop ratings were mixed but still supportive enough to keep weather premium in the market. Corn held steady at 67% good/excellent, slightly better than expected but still well below last year, while the crop is moving into the key pollination window where heat and dryness can quickly affect yield. Soybeans were a little more supportive, slipping to 64% good/excellent as the crop develops ahead of normal, with blooming and pod-setting already underway. Overall, corn is focused on the next few weeks of pollination weather, while soybeans are becoming increasingly sensitive to late-July and August conditions.
CFTC positioning is mildly supportive for corn, neutral for soybeans and meal, and still bullish but crowded in soybean oil. Funds continue to cover corn shorts, leaving room for more upside if weather or demand headlines stay supportive. Soybean fund length was trimmed, showing less conviction, while meal positioning is nearly flat and lacks a clear driver. Bean oil remains the strongest fund-held market, but with managed money still heavily long, it also carries the most liquidation risk if energy, biofuel, or veg oil sentiment turns lower.
USDA export inspections for the week ending July 2 showed solid demand momentum, with corn inspections surging to a strong 1.642 MMT (Mexico and Japan leading), soybeans at a respectable 528k MT (of which 268k headed to China — roughly half the total), and wheat coming in light at 134k MT (Mexico/Ecuador/Colombia focused).
The June ISM services report was mixed but generally constructive: the U.S. service sector kept expanding, with the index slipping only slightly to 54.0, still above the 50 growth line and in line with expectations. Demand cooled a bit as business activity and new orders eased, but the employment component improved sharply, signaling service firms are hiring again after earlier weakness. Inflation pressure also moderated, with the prices index falling to a four-month low of 67.7, helped by lower oil and gasoline prices after the U.S.–Iran de-escalation. For markets, this points to an economy that is still growing but not overheating — supportive for soft-landing views, though the improved hiring number keeps the Fed cautious
Corn
B 900 z 420 p 9
S 100 z27 500 c 32 vs 480 1/2
S 750 z 520 c 8 3/4
S 2000 q 410 p 2 to 1 3/4
B 2000 u 480/530 cs 3 3/8
B 950 z 470/525 cs 12 ¾ vs 456 3/4
B 1500 w2 new crop 455/440 ps 4 ¼ vs 458 1/2
B 1500 u 470 c 7 ¼ vs 438 3/4
B 1000 z 440/475 cs 14 5/8 to 15
B 1000 q 450/480 cs 3 to 3 1/4
S 500 n7/u7 +25 cso c 8
B 2500 z 490/530 cs 7
S 2000 z 500 c vs b z 400 p 7 3/8 to 7 ¼ cr
S 400 u 430 p 13
B 1300 q 425 p vs s 2600 q 410 p 1 ½ to 1 ¾ db
B 500 w2 432/417 ps vs s 450 c 1 ½ db
B 500 q 420 p 4 1/4
B 2500 z 500 c 10 ½ to 11 3/4
B 1000 z 530 c 6 5/8 to 6 3/4
B 900 q 420 p vs s 1800 q 405 p 1 ½ db
B 2000 h 560 c 7 ¼ to 7 1/2
B 1500 z 550 c 5 to 5 1/8
On a block
S 1000 z 455 c 25 vs 456
B 3600 h 560 c 8 to 8 1/8
B 4000 v 470 c and 2000 z 500 c vs s 2000 v 450 c and 4000 z 520 c 5 3/8 db vs 457
Beans
S 500 q 1230 c 6 ¾ vs 1184
S 3000 x 1160/1200 cs 18 3/8 to 18 1/4
B 300 v 1200 c 38 1/8 vs 1192 1/4
S 200 x 1160 straddle 90 ½ vs 1191 1/4
B 300 f 1180/1200 cs 9 1/4
S 675 x 1250/1300 cs 11 to 10 1/8
B 100 h 1200/1220 cs 8 1/8
S 500 x 1250/1300 cs 11
B 500 x 1200 c 43 5/8 vs 1191 1/4
B 1000 q 1210/1250 cs 7 7/8
S 500 q 1220 c 10 vs 1186
B 250 f 1600 c 3 5/8
B 1500 x 1050p/1250c strangles 27 ¾ to 28 3/4
B 750 u 1250/1400 cs 7 ½ to 8 1/2
B 1500 x 1050p/1300c strangles 17 ¼ to 19 1/4
B 800 u 1130 p 11 3/8 to 11 ½ vs 1176
B 1000 q 1180 c 16 ¼ to 17 1/2
B 700 x 1120 p 16 to 17 covered vs 1183 3/4
S 2000 x 1180/1240 cs 22 3/8 to 22
B 600 u 1160 p 22 5/8 vs 1178 1/2
B 100 xn -35/-20 cs vs s -50 p 4 ¼ db
B 250 sd q 1220/1250 cs 5 7/8
B 3000 x 1300 c 12 to 14 1/4
B 200 v 1220 c 23 3/8
B 1000 x 1140/1180 cs 21 1/8 vs 1168
S 200 v 1120 p 11 3/8
B 1000 q 1100 p 1 1/4
B 300 sd u 1270 c 8 ½ to 9 1/2
On a block
B 100 k 1250 c 43 ¼ vs 1207 ½
Soymeal
S 250 u 305 p 5.50
S 250 q 310/320 cs 4.15
S 100 q 365 c 5.65 to 5.60
B 1000 u 285 p .85 to .90
B 350 q 320 c 3.15
On a block
S 200 w2 315 c 2.30 vs 311.3
Bean oil
B 100 v 67 straddle 5.900
B 200 z 75 c vs s q 73 c 1.200
B 250 q 80 c .025
B 500 q 68/65 ps 1.175
B 100 q 74 c .140 vs 6773
B 100 v 60 p .600
On a block
B 1000 q 62 p .110 vs 6780
Wheat
B 500 q 640 c 7 ¼ to 7 5/8
B 300 q 605 c 11 7/8 to 12 1/8
B 500 u 660 c 9 ¾ vs 609 1/2
S 850 u 550 p 3 vs 609 1/4
S 600 w2 592p/630c strangles 6 ¼ to 5 1/2
Kc wheat
S 300 u 670/650 ps 12 7/8
Hogs
Sold 150 Aug 100 puts @ 2.65 down to 2.50
Bought 450 July 98 calls paid .0125
Sold 150 July 94 calls @ .2250 down to .20
Bought 150 Aug 92 puts paid .30
Sold 350 Aug 88 puts @ .10
Sold 250 Feb 92 calls @ .65 down to .625
Bought 150 Dec 90 calls paid .4250
Live Cattle
Bought 2000 Aug 240 calls paid 3.75 up to 4.025
Bought 250 Aug 240/234 put spread paid 2.225 up t0 2.375
Bought 100 Oct 234/224 put spreads paid .80 up to .90
Bought 150 Oct/Feb 230 puts spreads Cal paid 3.075 up to 3.10
Bought 200 Aug/Oct 243 put spread Cal paid 4.55 up to 4.575
Bought 200 Aug 260 calls paid .1750
Sold 500 Aug 240 puts @ 3.8750 down to 3.7250
Bought 2000 Oct 240 calls paid 4.2750 up to 4.70
Bought 150 Aug 250 calls paid .925 up to .950
Sold 200 Aug 247/242 put spread @ 3.475 up to 3.45
Feeder Cattle
Sold 200 Nov 390/300 combos @ Even Selling the Call
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