President Trump is again pressuring Senate Republicans to eliminate the filibuster, arguing that GOP priorities such as voter ID, proof-of-citizenship requirements and the SAVE America Act cannot pass under the current 60-vote Senate threshold. In a Sunday Truth Social post, Trump warned Republicans that Democrats would eliminate the filibuster themselves if they regain power, then pursue statehood expansions that he says would structurally benefit Democrats in the Senate, House and Electoral College. The market takeaway is more political than immediate: this raises the temperature around election law, Senate procedure and 2026 policy risk, but it does not change the legislative math unless Republican senators actually move to weaken or end the filibuster. Senate GOP leadership has so far shown limited appetite for eliminating it, leaving Trump’s push as a high-profile pressure campaign rather than a near-term policy shift.
The Trump administration is accelerating its deregulation push, releasing a new regulatory plan that would eliminate 702 existing administrative rules across the federal government. The move fits with President Trump’s broader “10-to-1” deregulation agenda, which requires agencies to identify at least 10 existing rules for removal for every new regulation issued. The business takeaway is that the administration is trying to lower compliance costs, speed up permitting and reduce federal oversight, which could be supportive for energy, infrastructure, transportation, agriculture and other heavily regulated sectors. The key watch item is implementation: proposed rule cuts still have to move through legal and administrative processes, and some rollbacks are likely to face court challenges.
Goldman Sachs has become more bearish on the Japanese yen, now forecasting further weakness against the U.S. dollar over the next year. The bank raised its dollar-yen targets to 162 in three months, 163 in six months and 165 in 12 months, up from its prior forecasts of 160, 158 and 155. The key takeaway is that Goldman believes Japan’s currency weakness is not likely to be solved by intervention alone. Even if Japanese authorities step in to support the yen, Goldman expects the impact to be temporary unless the broader interest-rate gap between the U.S. and Japan narrows. For markets, this keeps attention on Japanese intervention risk, U.S. rate expectations and the carry trade, where investors borrow cheaply in yen and buy higher-yielding dollar assets.
China’s Foreign Ministry said President Xi congratulated President Trump on America’s 250th anniversary, a symbolic gesture that keeps the diplomatic tone constructive at a sensitive point in U.S.-China relations. The message does not change the major sticking points around trade, Taiwan, technology controls, or agriculture, but it reinforces that both sides are trying to maintain a working channel and avoid letting tensions spiral. For markets, this is mildly supportive for sentiment because any sign of dialogue between Washington and Beijing lowers headline risk, though traders will still need to see concrete follow-through on trade commitments, especially around U.S. agriculture purchases. China had also referenced America’s 250th anniversary during Trump’s May visit to Beijing, showing Beijing is using the milestone as part of a broader effort to keep relations publicly cordial.
China is moving to tighten oversight of its digital economy, releasing draft amendments to its e-commerce law that would expand platform responsibility rules and add more regulatory tools beyond the existing penalty framework. The proposal includes 20 provisions and is aimed at clarifying the obligations of platforms, merchants and other participants in the platform economy, with public comments open through August 4. For businesses, the takeaway is that Beijing is not backing away from platform regulation, but is trying to make enforcement more structured and routine rather than relying only on after-the-fact penalties. This could raise compliance costs for large e-commerce platforms, but it is also intended to protect consumers, smaller merchants and market order in China’s online economy.
Citi is taking a more bearish view on crude, forecasting Brent could fall toward 60–65 per barrel by year-end as the Strait of Hormuz risk premium fades, shipping flows normalize and physical crude markets soften. The call is that recent geopolitical fear has created rallies that may not be sustainable if real supply flows continue improving and demand does not strengthen enough to absorb additional OPEC+ barrels. Citi’s recommendation to sell summer rallies suggests they see upside moves as opportunities to reduce exposure rather than the start of a new bull trend. For energy and agriculture, the takeaway is that lower crude would ease some inflation and fuel-cost pressure, but it would also reduce support for biofuels and energy-linked commodity strength.
OPEC+ agreed to raise August output targets by another 188,000 barrels per day, continuing its gradual plan to unwind earlier production cuts. On paper, the move adds supply and leans bearish for crude, especially with Gulf exports recovering as the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens. The key question is whether members can actually deliver the extra barrels, since recent geopolitical disruptions and compliance issues have limited real production gains. For now, the headline keeps pressure on oil prices, but the market will still trade off actual export flows, demand signals and any renewed Middle East risk.
Overnight option activity
Corn
S 1000 sd q 440 p 6 ½ to 6
B 100 z 440 c 26 5/8
S 250 sd q 460 c 6
B 500 sd q 450/460 cs 3 3/8
S 100 z 440 p 19
B 200 u 420/380 ps 10
B 100 q 435 p 16
B 100 q 415/440 cs 9 1/4
S 400 v 460 p 25 ½ to 25 3/8
B 300 u 460/510 cs 4 ¾ to 5
B 300 z 480 c 13 3/4
B 1000 sd q 430 p 2 3/4
B 450 sd q 430/420 ps 2 1/2
On a block
B 1000 z 440/475 cs 13 1/8
Beans
S 4000 x 1120 p 19 to 15
B 825 x 1300/1400 cs 5 5/8 to 6 1/4
S 150 q 1150 c 16 3/8
B 400 x 1080 p 10
B 200 sd u 1120/1100 ps 5
S 100 q 1120 p 4 5/8
S 600 x 1140/1120 ps 7
Soymeal
B 150 q 325 c vs s q 290 p 1.55 vs 311.9
Bean oil
B 300 z 65 p 2.995 to 3.075
Wheat
B 100 u 650 c 10 ½ to 10 3/4
Open interest changes
Corn
Dec 450/525 call spread buy was rolling a long. Dec 400 put sales were closing. July7/sept7 +5/+25 cso call spread buy was new.
Beans
Nov 1280/1380 call spread sale was closing. Sept 1300 call buy was new.
Soymeal
Dec 300/280 put spread buy was rolling a short
Bean oil
Dec 75 call buy, sept 75 call buy, sept 76 call sale and jan 66 straddle sales were new.
Wheat
Sept 650 call buy and sept 650/750 call spread buys were new.
Lean hogs
Aug 96/90 put spread sale and aug 99/105 call spread sales were new.
Cvol
Ags 20.21% down .65%
Corn 26.56% down 1.49%
Beans 16.51% down .07%
Soymeal 18.80% down .76%
Bean oil 23.67% down 2.02%
Wheat 27.42% down .76%
Feeder cattle 15.67% up .03%
Live cattle 15.65% up .07%
Lean hogs 20.24% down .87%
Class 3 milk 20.36% down .16%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Cotton
Canola
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
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