USDA pre-report expectations lean supportive corn and wheat, neutral-to-slightly bearish soybeans. For old-crop corn, analysts are looking for ending stocks near 2.074 billion bushels, down from USDA’s prior 2.145 billion, implying stronger demand or lower residual carryout. New-crop corn stocks are also expected lower at 1.865 billion versus USDA’s prior 1.960 billion, while production is basically unchanged at 15.985 billion bushels with yield steady at 183.0 bpa. Soybeans are less bullish: old-crop stocks are expected nearly unchanged at 339 million bushels versus 340 million, while new-crop stocks are expected higher at 332 million versus USDA’s prior 310 million, helped by production estimates rising to 4.462 billion bushels. Wheat is the tightest story, with new-crop ending stocks expected at 710 million bushels, down from USDA’s prior 744 million and well below last year’s 935 million, which keeps wheat more fundamentally supportive if USDA confirms the drawdown.
The CFTC has temporarily blocked CME’s plan to quickly launch 24/7 oil futures trading, saying the exchange cannot move forward through the fast approval process while regulators review the broader risks. CME wanted to list smaller-sized, round-the-clock oil contracts, but the CFTC wants more time to assess issues around market oversight, liquidity, pricing, margining, and the impact of nonstop trading in a physical energy market. This does not kill the idea, but it delays the launch and signals that regulators are not ready to treat oil futures like crypto or FX markets where continuous trading is more common.
Export sales were mixed but generally supportive. Corn was solid, with old-crop sales of 565,800 tons and new-crop sales of 401,700 tons, bringing total corn sales to about 967,500 tons. Soybeans were weaker on old crop at only 54,300 tons, but new-crop sales were much better at roughly 408,000 tons, bringing total soybean sales to about 462,600 tons. Soymeal was respectable at roughly 321,500 tons total, while soyoil was minimal at under 1,000 tons. Wheat sales came in near 313,100 tons, which is steady but not exceptional. Overall, the report is most supportive corn, modestly supportive soybeans because of new-crop demand, and neutral-to-light for soyoil.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said China is actively buying U.S. soybeans and estimated purchases near 500,000 metric tons, though he did not specify the timeframe. He framed the buying as evidence that the administration’s China trade strategy is working, which is supportive for soybean demand and helps explain the recent strength in the market. Greer also said President Trump wants the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico reduced, keeping Mexico in focus as part of the broader trade agenda. For customers, the soybean headline is friendly, but the larger takeaway is that trade policy remains active across China, Mexico, Brazil, and the expiring 10% tariff structure, so markets should expect continued headline risk.
PepsiCo’s earnings are a mixed read-through for agriculture: the company beat revenue expectations, but the weakness was concentrated in North American foods, where snack demand remains pressured by budget-conscious consumers and Pepsi had to cut prices on major brands like Lay’s and Doritos. That matters for ag because PepsiCo is a large buyer of potatoes, corn, vegetable oils, oats, wheat, sugar and other ingredients, so softer U.S. snack pricing points to limited food-company pricing power and margin pressure across the ag-processing chain. International demand and healthier product categories were better, which keeps the broader demand picture from turning bearish, but the U.S. takeaway is that consumer resistance is still forcing food companies to defend volume with promotions rather than push through higher ingredient costs.
El Niño is now expected to remain in place into spring 2027, with the National Weather Service putting the odds at 97%. For U.S. agriculture, that points to a higher probability of a wetter and cooler Corn Belt spring. That can be beneficial if it rebuilds soil moisture ahead of planting, but it also raises the risk of overly wet fields, slower planting progress, and early-season crop delays. For now, the market appears to be treating the forecast as more mixed than outright bullish, with CBOT grains lower ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE as traders balance improved moisture prospects against potential spring planting complications.
Mexico is moving more aggressively to contain the New World screwworm outbreak, with President Claudia Sheinbaum saying sterile screwworm flies will be released in Tamaulipas. The sterile-fly strategy is designed to reduce reproduction by having wild flies mate with sterilized flies, preventing viable offspring and slowing the spread. This matters for cattle because screwworm can be deadly to livestock if untreated, and the outbreak has already created cross-border trade concerns and U.S. import restrictions on Mexican cattle. The release near northern Mexico is a constructive step for containment, but the market will likely keep some animal-health risk premium in cattle until case counts stabilize and the U.S.-Mexico border situation normalizes.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh announced leadership for five new task forces that will review major parts of the central bank’s policymaking process, including communications, the balance sheet, data reliance, productivity and labor-market analysis, and the Fed’s inflation frameworks. The groups will include outside academics, former central bankers, and corporate executives, with conclusions expected by year-end. For markets, this signals Warsh is moving quickly to reassess how the Fed explains policy, measures the economy, and manages its toolkit, but it is more of a framework-review headline than an immediate rate-policy change.
Corn
B 100 z27 500 c 32 7/8 vs 481
B 1500 q 440/450 cs 1 3/4
S 1500 q 410 p 1 ¾ to 1 5/8
S 500 q 420 p 4
B 1000 u 440/450 cs 3
B 3000 u 460 c 5 7/8 to 6 1/4
S 600 u 425 p 10 7/8 vs 432 1/2
S 300 v 435/410 ps 6 3/4
S 1500 sd q 450 p 8 1/8 to 6 3/4
B 500 v 480/540 cs 7 1/2
B 1000 z27 450/600 cs 40 ½ to 41
B 250 zz -15/even cso cs 3
S 300 zz -15/-35 cso ps 11 3/4
B 750 z 500 c vs s z 420 p 1 db
S 400 z27 600 c 12 1/8 vs 481
B 100 h 580/600 cs 3
B 1500 q 440/450 cs 2 3/4
B 1000 z 510 c 7 ½ vs 461
B 1000 z 460 c vs s v 460 c 4 3/8 db
B 1000 q 420 p 4 5/8 to 5
S 400 u 430 c 14 ¾ vs 430 1/4
B 500 u 400 p vs s u 485 c 7/8 db
B 100 z 430 c 13 3/8
B 200 z 455 c 23 vs 453
S 500 u 460 c 6 1/8 vs 430 1/2
B 500 z 480/540 cs vs s 410 p 1 7/8 to 2 db
S 500 h 500 c vs b 500 h 415 p 10 1/8 to 10 cr
S 1500 z 500 c 10 ¼ to 9 1/8
Beans
B 400 x 1250/1350 cs 13 5/8
B 1000 q 1200/1240 cs 6 3/8
S 300 q 1180 straddles 35 to 32 5/8
B 1500 w3 1200/1220 cs 3 to 3 ½
B 600 w3 1200 c 5
S 1000 q 1180/1200 cs 8 1/8 to 7
B 350 x 1140 p 19 3/4
S 200 x 1150 p 25
B 800 x 1120 p vs s 1600 x 1090 p 1/8 cr
B 600 x 1260 c 18 1/8 vs 1185 1/4
B 200 x 1300/1380 cs 6 5/8
S 1000 sd q 1184 straddles 32 1/8
B 750 w3 1200 c vs s 1500 w3 1220/1260 cs 2 ½ db
B 400 x 1200 c 12 1/2
B 400 x 1050 p 2 3/8 vs 1191
S 1000 x 1200 p 51
S 500 q 1210 c 7 3/8
S 100 f 1190/1160 ps 15
B 500 w3 1220 c vs s 1000 w3 1260 c 2 ¾ db
Soymeal
S 1500 q 320 c 4.30 to 4.00
B 200 z 400 c 1.65
B 2000 q 300 p .60 to .65
B 500 u 320/330 cs 2.25 vs 316.0
Bean oil
B 3500 z 64 p 1.680
S 200 z 70 straddles 7.675 to 7.650
B 1000 u 73 c .980
S 200 v 70 straddles 5.900 to 5.850
S 500 u 72/78/81 broken call flies .760
B 500 v 67/62 ps vs s 73 c .025 cr
B 250 z 67 p 2.790 vs 69.10
S 400 u 77/82 cs .295
B 100 z 74/84 cs 1.525
B 200 n 65 p 3.990 vs 6835
S 250 z 75 c 1.890
Wheat
B 2000 z 700 c 20 1/2
B 500 q 580 p 2 1/4
S 200 u 595 p 14 ¼ vs 613 3/4
B 400 u 560/550 ps 1 3/8 vs 612 1/4
S 300 q 615 p 13 5/8 vs 618 1/2
B 500 u 580 p 7 3/4
B 350 u 600 p vs s z 580 p 2 db
B 250 u 650 c 10 3/4
Kc wheat
B 250 q 670/700 cs 6 1/4
S 350 q 640 c 21 3/4
B 200 u 700 c 13
S 100 h 680 straddles 100 3/4
Crush options
B 100 z 200 p 9
Hogs
Bought 1800 Aug 96/90 put spreads paid .975 covered 98.050
Bought 750 Aug 98 Straddle paid 3.80 up to 3.95
Bought 800 Aug 97/105 call spread paid 2.225 up to 2.25 covered 98.050
Bought 400 Aug 100 calls paid 1.1750 up to 1.225
Bought 400 Feb 78 puts paid 3.80 up to 3.825 covered 80.175
Bought 225 Feb27 78/84 strangle paid 6.85 up to 6.90
Bought 250 Oct 80 puts paid 1.475 up to 1.50
Sold 200 Oct 90 calls @ 2.20 down to 2.125
Sold 3000 Oct 100 calls @ .45 down to .425 On a Block
Sold 200 Dec 77 puts @ 4.40
Sold 150 Dec 79 puts @ 5.60
Bought 200 April 86 puts paid 5.75
Bought 100 Oct 104 calls paid .25
Sold 250 Aug 94 puts @ .425 down to .375
Sold 200 Oct 86 Straddles @ 7.60 covered 85.80 On a Block
Sold 500 Oct 85 puts @ 3.425 down to 3.40 covered 85.70
Live Cattle
Bought 300 Aug 234 puts paid 2.725
Bought 250 Aug 230 puts paid 1.375
Sold 400 Aug 240 calls @ 1.80 down to 1.75
Sold 250 Oct 234 calls @ 5.525 down to 5.50
Bought 350 Dec 218 puts paid 4.10 up to 4.1750
Bought 125 Aug 215 puts paid .125
Bought 450 Aug 250 calls paid .425
Bought 100 Aug/Sep 240/234 put spread paid .525
Feeder Cattle
Bought 100 Aug 360 puts paid 7.85 up to 8.00
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