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CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

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The U.S.-Iran situation escalated further after the U.S. military carried out a second day of strikes on Iran, with CENTCOM saying the goal was to reduce Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks aimed at U.S.-linked military sites in Gulf allies including Bahrain and Kuwait. This keeps geopolitical risk elevated for energy and freight markets, especially with the Strait of Hormuz central to global oil and gas flows. For markets, the headline is supportive crude risk premium and broader risk-off sentiment, but the biggest impact depends on whether shipping through the Gulf is disrupted or the conflict remains contained. 

 

Pepsi reports earnings today. 

 

Wasde tomorrow morning. 

 

China’s June inflation data was softer on the consumer side but firmer at the producer level. CPI rose 1.0% year-over-year, below expectations of 1.2% and down from 1.2% previously, while monthly CPI fell 0.3%, also weaker than expected. That points to still-muted domestic demand and limited consumer pricing power. Producer prices rose 4.1% year-over-year, matching expectations but up from 3.9% previously, suggesting upstream cost pressure remains sticky even as consumer inflation cools.

 

A U.S. Senate Commerce Committee vote is expected on July 15 on bipartisan legislation aimed at tightening the U.S. ban on Chinese automakers entering the American market. The bill would codify existing restrictions that effectively block Chinese passenger vehicles and would expand the focus to connected-vehicle software, hardware, and business partnerships tied to China. The stated concern is national security, especially the ability of connected vehicles to collect sensitive data, but the practical impact is also protectionist for the U.S. auto sector by limiting Chinese competition in the light-duty vehicle market.

 

The latest FOMC minutes leaned hawkish, with participants generally viewing inflation risks as still elevated while seeing labor-market downside risks as having eased somewhat. A few officials said there was a case for raising the federal funds rate, and several questioned whether current policy is restrictive enough. Most participants also warned that inflation could remain sticky if AI-driven demand, Middle East conflict, or tariffs keep price pressures elevated. In that scenario, nearly all of those officials said additional policy firming would likely be needed to bring inflation back toward the Fed’s 2% target.

 

President Trump said the U.S. made “a lot of good trade deals” with Turkey, calling the country a strong partner, while also saying Spain was “very generous” and had honored a U.S. request for significant payments. The comments mark a softer tone toward Spain after recent threats to cut off trade over defense-spending and Iran-related disputes, but no specific payment details or formal trade changes were announced, so the market impact is limited until the administration provides specifics.  

 

image-20260709044942-1

 

Overnight option activity 

Corn

B 100 z 450/500 cs 10 1/2

S 100 z 500 c 10

B 500 z 490/530 cs 6 1/4

B 1250 q 370 p 1/8 

B 600 sd u 480/540 cs 6

B 200 q 450/470 cs 2 3/4

B 900 w2 445 c 1

 

Beans

S 500 x 1200 p 50

B 150 v 1190 p 36 1/2

 

Bean oil

S 200 z 73 c 2.620 to 2.570

S 200 v 70 c 2.950 to 2.870

 

Wheat 

B 200 u 590 p 15

 

Open interest changes

corn

Aug 410 put sale and sept 430 call sales were closing. Aug 450 call buy, dec 460 put sale, sept 410 put buy, sept 380 put sale and sept 470 call buys were new.

 

Beans

Nov 1200 put sale and aug/nov +10 cso call buys were new.  Aug 1160/1170 call spread sale was rolling a long.

 

Soymeal

Dec 350 call buys were new

 

Bean oil

Sept 72 call sale, aug 73 call sale, sept 75 call buy and oct 7750 calls ales were new.  Dec 70 call buy and dec 75 call buys were new.

 

Lean hogs

Oct 100 call buy was closing.  Oct 85 straddle sale and oct 72 put buys were new.

 

Live cattle

Aug 234 call sales were closing

 

Cvol

Ags 22.02% down.36%

Corn 29.19% down 1.03%

Beans 19.59% down 1.10%

Soymeal 21.99% down 1.18%

Bean oil 25.63% up .80%

Wheat 30.60% down 1.01%

Feeder cattle 15.38% up .08%

Live cattle 15.07% up .15%

Lean hogs 22.38% up .74%

Class 3 milk 21.51% up .56%

 

Corn

image-20260709044942-2

Beans

image-20260709044942-3

Soymeal

image-20260709044942-4

Bean oil

image-20260709044942-5

Wheat

image-20260709044942-6

Kc wheat

image-20260709044942-7

Miax wheat

image-20260709044942-8

Oats

image-20260709044942-9

Rough rice

image-20260709044942-10

Cotton

image-20260709044942-11

Canola

image-20260709044942-12

Feeder cattle

image-20260709044942-13

Live cattle

image-20260709044942-14

Lean hogs

image-20260709044942-15

 

 

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