The WASDE was supportive for corn and wheat, while largely neutral for soybeans. Corn was the standout, as USDA left yield unchanged at 183.0 bpa and production nearly unchanged at 16.000 billion bushels, but still cut U.S. ending stocks to 1.790 billion bushels from 1.960 billion. World corn stocks also fell to 275.3 MMT from 281.2 MMT, confirming a tighter global corn balance sheet. Soybeans were more neutral, with yield unchanged at 53.0 bpa and production raised to 4.475 billion bushels from 4.435 billion, while ending stocks held steady at 310 million bushels, suggesting demand absorbed the larger crop. Wheat was modestly supportive, with U.S. production lowered to 1.536 billion bushels and ending stocks cut to 722 million bushels from 744 million, while world wheat stocks were slightly lower near 273 MMT. Overall, corn had the clearest bullish surprise, wheat was supportive, and soybeans likely need stronger demand or additional weather risk to extend higher.
Acelen Renewables has signed a five-year agreement with Bunge to purchase 1.5 million metric tons of certified soybean oil for its planned biorefinery in Bahia, Brazil. Bunge will supply 300,000 metric tons annually beginning in 2029, when the more than $3 billion facility is expected to begin producing sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel. The refinery is designed for annual output of roughly 1 billion liters, and the agreement is Bunge’s largest soybean oil supply contract in South America. The deal is a long-term positive for soybean oil demand, although it will not affect near-term balances because deliveries do not begin for nearly three years.
President Trump said the Iran ceasefire is over and that the U.S. has notified Iran of that position. At the same time, he said Iran has asked to continue talks and the U.S. has agreed to keep negotiations open. For markets, this keeps geopolitical risk elevated, especially across crude oil, refined products, freight, and broader risk sentiment, while still leaving a diplomatic path available.
Europe’s corn balance is tightening after record heat hurt pollination across key producing areas, with Coceral now estimating the 2026 EU corn crop at 52.7 MMT, the lowest since 2007. The shortfall is centered in southern France, southern Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary, and it matters because the EU is already a major corn importer for animal feed. A crop this small likely forces the bloc to lean more heavily on imports from Ukraine and Brazil, keeping global feedgrain trade flows tighter and adding a supportive demand-side tone for corn. For the U.S. market, the immediate benefit may be indirect rather than direct, but it reinforces the broader theme that world corn supply is becoming less comfortable.
Wheat markets are reacting to Russia closing the Azov-Don canal and Kerch Strait after Ukrainian attacks on oil tankers in the Sea of Azov. While Ukrainian strikes have reportedly targeted petroleum infrastructure rather than grain assets, the concern is that this closure could trap as much as 20 MMT of Russian wheat exports, tightening available Black Sea supply.
Corn
S 2000 q 440 p 8 3/4
B 3000 sd q 450 p 4 1/4
S 1900 z 500 c 12 vs 461
S 4300 z 510 c 10 3/8
S 3200 q 427 p 3 3/4
S 1000 uz -21 cso p 1 1/2
B 1500 v 540 c 2 ½ to 3 1/8
S 2000 sd u 425 p 3 7/8
B 400 w3 new crop 465 c 3 1/2
B 500 q 430/400 ps 6 ¼ vs 434 1/2
B 500 u 450 c 9 7/8
S 500 q 429 c 12
B 250 zz -15/even cs 2 7/8
S 1500 u 440/450 cs 3 ¼ vs 434 1/2
B 3000 sd q 440 p 1 7/8 to 2
B 1000 u 430 straddles 30 1/8 to 30 ½ covered vs 438 1/2
B 1000 z27 450/500 cs 22 1/8 to 22 3/8
B 1500 w3 new crop 465 c 4 7/8 vs 461
B 1000 u 450 c 11
B 500 sd u 470/510 cs vs s 435 p 2 ½ db
B 1000 z 460/510 cs vs s 420 p 5 ¼ db
B 150 sd q 470/500 cs 2 3/4
B 700 z 500 c 10 ¼ vs 456
B 1000 u 420 p 8 7/8 to 9 3/8
S 250 z 500 c 9 1/8
B 500 v 540 c 2 3/4
B 1000 q 420 p 3 3/8 to 3 7/8
S 1700 z 425 p 11 vs 451
B 1500 z 420/400 ps 4 3/4
On a block
S 4000 z 460 straddles 48 1/4
Beans
B 700 qx +5/+15 cso cs 2 to 2 3/8
B 1000 x 1130 p 13 5/8 vs 1193 1/2
B 1500 w3 1220/1230 cs 1 1/8
B 1000 w3 1210/1220 cs 2 1/8
S 600 x 1260 c 16 5/8 vs 1182
S 1000 q 1220 c 4 3/4
B 100 xx +50 c vs s even p 5 ½ db
S 500 v 1220 c 23 vs 1186 1/2
S 300 x 1170 p 33 ¾ to 33 5/8
B 150 h 1250/1320 cs 14 5/8
S 200 q 1130p/1200c strangles 8 1/4
Soymeal
S 500 u 310/350 cs 10.90 to 10.75
B 500 z 315/305 ps 4.70
S 500 z 340/380 cs 5.70
B 500 z 270 p .85
B 500 q 310 p 1.20
B 600 q 305 p .60
S 250 q 320/330 cs 3.75
S 500 q 320 c vs b 1000 q 330 c .80 cr vs 321.6
S 2000 z 340 c 8.80 vs 319.5
B 600 z 290/260 ps 2.85
S 500 u 310/350 cs 10.75
S 500 q 320 c 5.20 to 5.00
S 200 z 305/300 ps 2.00
B 400 u 315/320 cs 1.85
On a block
B 200 k 310/330 cs 7.60
Bean oil
B 300 v 66/61 ps vs s 72 c .880 cr
B 500 v 69/64 ps vs s 74 c .440 db
B 1500 z 65 p 1.910 to 2.025
B 400 u 70/66 ps 1.565
B 500 u 71/74 cs .860
B 500 u 69p/72c strangles 3.095 to 3.140
B 350 f 120 c .120
B 750 u 72/74 cs .450 to .490
Wheat
B 400 u 720/750 cs 3 5/8
S 1000 q 620/650 cs 12 5/8 vs 638
S 1500 q 650 c 16 ½ to 16
S 200 q 650 c vs s b 600 q 670 c 1 to 7/8 cr
B 100 q 800 c 3/4
B 200 z 700 c 31 1/2
B 300 z 610 p 23 to 23 5/8
S 1000 u 620/670 cs 20 ½ vs 643
B 900 q 670/700 cs 4 3/4
B 1200 q 600 p vs 2400 q 580 p 1 to 1 1/8
B 900 w3 670/700 cs 4 3/4
B 1500 q 650 c 13 1/8 to 14 3/8
S 1000 u 620/650 cs 12 7/8 vs 638
B 1000 u 670/760 cs 7 to 11 5/8
B 1000 q 650 c 9 5/8 to 10 7/8
B 500 u 680 c 11 7/8 to 12 3/8
B 1000 u 670/720 cs 9 1/4
On a block
B 2000 u 700 c 5 3/4
Kc wheat
S 800 q 650/700 cs 21 ¾ vs 674
B 200 z 800 c 17 7/8 vs 693 1/2
S 7000 u 650/680/700/750 call condors 2 3/8 to 2 1/8 cr
B 500 u 680 c 26 1/4
On a block
B 500 u 700/750 cs 12
Hogs
Sold 400 Oct 86/92 call spread v. 80 puts @ .70
Bought 250 Aug 99 straddles paid 4.10
Sold 600 Aug 90/104 call spread @ 1.60 down to 1.425
Bought 200 july 98 call .0125 to .025
Bought 750 feb 82 c 3.950 to 3.975 vs 79.850
Bought 1200 aug 96/90 put spread and aud 99/105 call spread paying 2.375 to 2.450 covered vs 98.725
Live Cattle
Bought 1200 Aug 250/240 put spreads paid 8.75 up to 8.90
Sold 1000 Aug 225 puts @ .80 down to .75
Bought 800 Dec 240 calls paid 5.2750 up to 5.35
Bought 750 Aug 238/241 call spread paid .825 up to 1.00
Bought Aug 239/243 call spreads paid .925 up to 1.05
Sold 500 Aug 240 puts @ 7.25 down to 6.3750
Bought 300 Aug 235 calls paid 3.00 up to 3.325
Sold 400 oct 230 puts 7.00 to 6.400
Feeder Cattle
Bought 400 Aug 374/366 put spread paid 6.25 up to 6.55
Sold 200 Aug 370/350 put spread @ 10.975 down to 10.80
Bought 200 Sept 355 puts paid 10.70 up to 10.80
Bought 100 Oct 350/334 put spread paid 6.125
Sold 500 Sep 370 calls @ 4.10 down to 4.05
Sold 200 nov 300 puts 2.700
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