Chicago wheat futures climbed to their highest level since June 2024, approaching $7 per bushel as escalating attacks around the Black Sea and Sea of Azov raised concerns about Russian and Ukrainian grain exports. Shipping remains restricted through the Kerch Strait, a route connected to roughly one-quarter of Russia’s grain exports, while intensified attacks have also reduced Ukraine’s export capacity. Additional support is coming from USDA’s forecast for the smallest U.S. wheat crop since 1970 and concerns that the Iran conflict could raise fuel and fertilizer costs. The rally is clearly geopolitical and supply-risk driven, leaving wheat vulnerable to continued volatility as traders monitor Black Sea shipping conditions.
President Trump expects crude oil prices to remain volatile while the conflict with Iran continues but suggested prices could fall toward $55 per barrel once Tehran settles down and the geopolitical risk premium fades. In the meantime, the White House is considering another extension of the Jones Act waiver, which temporarily allows foreign-flagged vessels to transport oil, fuel and other commodities between U.S. ports. Extending the waiver beyond its current mid-August expiration could increase shipping capacity, lower domestic transportation costs and help contain fuel prices if Middle East disruptions persist. The comments reinforce a two-sided outlook: oil remains vulnerable to sharp rallies during escalation, but a credible settlement with Iran could produce a substantial price decline.
President Trump’s Thursday night address is expected to include allegations of previously undisclosed Chinese interference in U.S. elections, according to CBS News. The White House is reportedly considering releasing or referencing intelligence collected during Trump’s first term concerning China’s intentions and potential access to election-related information. However, the material remains disputed within the intelligence community, and existing assessments have not found evidence that China altered votes or successfully breached U.S. voting systems. The speech could increase U.S.–China tensions and add uncertainty to ongoing trade negotiations, but the significance will depend on the evidence presented and whether the administration announces any sanctions, tariffs or other policy response.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook signaled that policymakers are in no hurry to change interest rates, arguing that policy is mildly restrictive and the Fed can wait for additional evidence that inflation is slowing. While she still expects further disinflation, Cook warned that tariffs, the Middle East conflict and heavy AI-related investment could keep inflation elevated, and said the balance of risks has shifted toward higher inflation even as the labor market remains stable. She emphasized that one month of CPI and PPI data does not establish a trend and that the Fed must remain prepared to act if inflation fails to improve soon. The Beige Book supported a patient approach, reporting moderate price increases overall, with inflation running at the same or a slower pace across every Federal Reserve District compared with the previous reporting period.
The United States will impose a 25% tariff on a broad range of Brazilian goods beginning July 22, escalating the trade dispute after negotiations failed to resolve U.S. concerns over Brazil’s treatment of American businesses and agricultural products. Coffee and beef were exempted, along with orange juice and certain aerospace and critical-material imports, limiting the immediate impact on U.S. food inflation and cattle markets. However, products including Brazilian sugar, ethanol, steel, machinery and apparel will face the new duty. Brazil condemned the decision and said it will invoke its Economic Reciprocity Law and pursue a challenge through the World Trade Organization, raising the possibility of retaliatory measures against U.S. exports. For agriculture, the biggest potential implications are improved U.S. ethanol competitiveness and the risk that Brazil eventually targets American farm products in response.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer described Mexico as pragmatic and said bilateral USMCA negotiations are progressing, although the Trump administration remains focused on reducing the large U.S. trade deficit and strengthening North American content requirements. Canada remains the more difficult negotiation, with Greer saying weekly discussions have produced no meaningful concessions and that a breakthrough may ultimately require direct agreement between President Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney.
President Trump is signaling that the United States remains open to negotiations with Iran, but only under intense military pressure. Trump said Iran is eager to meet and reach a settlement, while warning that Washington could “finish it off” if Tehran does not cooperate. At the same time, he indicated that U.S. strikes could expand next week, and the Wall Street Journal reported that he is leaning toward broader military operations after reviewing options that could include intensified airstrikes and action against strategic Iranian facilities. Iran’s release of an American detained since December 2024 is a constructive gesture and may indicate Tehran is seeking a diplomatic off-ramp, but it has not yet reduced the immediate escalation risk. Taken together, the developments remain supportive of a geopolitical risk premium in crude oil, refined products, freight and safe-haven markets, particularly while the Strait of Hormuz remains at the center of the conflict.
Overnight option activity
Corn
B 2500 sd u 450/440 ps 2 1/2
B 500 u 430/420 ps 2 1/2
B 300 z 475 c 22 ¾ to 23 3/8
B 500 z 430 p 7 1/2
B 500 z 500 c 14 ¾ to 15
Beans
S 500 x 1200 p 49 to 47 5/8
Bean oil
B 200 q 70/68 ps .200
Wheat
B 200 z 1000/1200 cs 4 1/2
B 100 q 700/750 cs 10 1/4
B 200 q 670/640 ps vs s q 725c 1 7/8 db
S 250 u 630/650/740 skinny call fly 31 1/4
B 1000 q 750 c 7 to 8 1/2
S 500 v 690 c 51 1/4
B 250 z 800 c 15
B 600 u 680/700 cs 7 1/2
B 200 z 600 p 5 ¾ vs 699 3/4
Kc wheat
S 200 v 740 p 49 to 47 5/8
Open interest changes
Corn
Dec 495 call buy, aug 450 put sale and sd sept 470 call buys were closing. Oct 450 put buy, dec 500 call buy, sept 500 call buy, sept 460 call buy, dec 455 put sale and sept 470/500 call spread buy were new.
Beans
W3 1190/1200 1x2 call spread buy was rolling a long. Nov 1190 put sale and sd aug 1160 call sales were new. Nov 1300/1400 call spread buy was rolling a short.
Soymeal
Aug 320/330 call spread buy was rolling a long.
Bean oil
Sept 67 put buy and aug 78 call buys were new.
Wheat
Sept 750 call buy, sept 740 call sale and sept 800/900 call spread buys were new. March 860 call buy, dec 700 call sale and dec 730 call buys were new. Sept 650/700/750 call fly sale was rolling a long call spread.
Kc wheat
Sept 680/750 call spread sale vs sept 730/800 call spread buy was rolling a long. March 800/1200 call spread buy, sept 740 call buy and sept 660 put sales were new. Dec 800/850 call spread buy was rolling a short.
Lean hogs
Aug 100 straddle buy was new. Oct 72 put sale was closing.
Cvol
Ags 23.14% up 1.00%
Corn 27.75% up 1.71%
Beans 19.33% up .60%
Soymeal 22.81% up .38%
Bean oil 27.76% up .60%
Wheat 42.95% up 7.57%
Feeder cattle 17.78% down .03%
Live cattle 17.25% up .30%
Lean hogs 23.19% down .22%
Class 3 milk 22.38% up .18%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Cotton
Canola
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
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